Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

[Scorpion]

So it begins.

[6SpeedTA95]

The ARW model has been very aggressive on Wilma's intensity. The latest 00z run shows Wilma as a Cat 5 very near Florida, meaning that it must be a Cat 5 or strong Cat 4 model if this seemingly impossible scenario verified. Think this must be crazy? The ARW is a heavily touted new model developed by UCAR. It looks like it's a WRF-based 4km hurricane run. I think it's eventually slated to replace the GFDL.

[url=http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/hur/2005102200/hur_track.png]Hurricane track
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[url=http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane.php]Other graphics
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sorry but that seems like a real stretch. Why are we supposed to believe wilma will just shrug off the shear in the area?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR
DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST... ABOUT 25 MILES... 40
KM NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[stormynorfolk]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

[Canelaw99]

Let's not forget or overlook that there's a watch up on the east coast as well from Titusville all the way south as of 5pm.

[markymark8]

WE HAVE TROPICAL STORM ALPHA!!!!!! Mike watkins and Mark Sudduth after zooming in on their pc the NHC has the center going over downtown Naples. Marco Island is going to take a serious beating as well. should make landfall as a strong 2.

[gatorcane]

Let's not forget or overlook that there's a watch up on the east coast as well from Titusville all the way south as of 5pm.

Yeah I noticed that was missed in the advisory thread subject

[gatorcane]

please change the title of this thread to include the fact that the E coast of FL has hurricane watches as well.

Thanks.

[gatorcane]

please change the title of this thread to include the fact that the E coast of FL has hurricane watches as well.

Thanks.

[artist]

MAx MAyfield news conference just now said it may be a strong 2 or 3 when it hits the coast as it is going to hit the loop current .

[CronkPSU]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

hmm, I usually don't visit someone for dinner and then crap on their cooking, but to each their own...GFS has been horrible at tracking storms the past 2 seasons...not sure what that has to do with the NHC

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF
ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT
WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST
WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL
SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF
THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD
IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER
TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE
GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS
WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS
IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[tracyswfla]

MAx MAyfield news conference just now said it may be a strong 2 or 3 when it hits the coast as it is going to hit the loop current .

[Brent]

Uh oh...

AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL.

Earlier that was "Category 1 or 2"

[gatorcane]

CAT 2 or CAT 3 at landfall

[6SpeedTA95]

Uh oh...

AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL.

Earlier that was "Category 1 or 2"

You gotta remember she's coming off the yucatan almost 12 hrs ahead of the forcast. Shearing will be significantly less tomorrow afternoon than it will be at midnight or early AM on monday. Its getting a bit of a head start and therefore could be stronger than originally though.

[inotherwords]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

You must be new here. Derek is one of the most highly respected pro mets on this board and his forecasting track record is outstanding. I've read and followed his reports for the last two crazy years and you would do well to listen to what he has to say as well as pay attention to NHC.

If he says the GFS has been unreliable the past couple of years, I'd suggest you learn something from him. He knows what he's talking about and is not just pulling comments like this out of the air. We are extremely fortunate he posts here.

[artist]

Update - Cozumel
From: go2mexico at aol.com
Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 14:01:38 -0400

Just received a telephone call from my good friend in Cozumel. 1:45pm est. Amazing she still had telephone service. Her family is safe but exhausted and very upset. She said there has been no let up since 9pm Thurs and the wind and rain have been relentless. She wanted to know when it was all going to end. She indicated this storm was much worse than Gilbert in 88. She is only getting weather updates by calling the states. It broke my heart to have to tell her they had several more hours before it finally starts to settle down. She will try to call later and I will try to get some specifics concerning damage reports.

this really concerns me - I have a feeling she is going to be worse than most anticipate

[gatorcane]

Wilma appears that she is starting make more of a move now...I think this is the beginning of the acceleration.

Also, her "eye" seems to be clearing out a little more as it's nearly all over water now.