Hurricane Emily Advisories

[tomboudreau]

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 23a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 16, 2005



...Extremely dangerous category four Emily strengthens further as it
passes south of Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the eastern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche...including Cozumel
and the islas mujeres.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the coast of Belize
from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border.
At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti is
cancelled.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...and the
southern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Emily.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 78.0 west or about 135
miles... 215 km...southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 295
miles... 480 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the center of Emily south of
Jamaica this afternoon and near Grand Cayman island tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased near 155 mph...250
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily a strong category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are expected during the next 24 hours...and Emily could
become a category five hurricane at times.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts in rainbands along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 937 mb...27.66 inches.

Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands...with some 1 to 3 inch amounts possible over southeastern
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. Rains will be diminishing over the western portion of
Hispaniola this afternoon.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.4 N... 78.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Swimdude]

Excuse this.

DAMNIT. [Sorry, won't happen again!]

So close!

and Emily could
become a category five hurricane at times.

[wxwatcher91]

"Emily could
become a category five hurricane at times."

at times??? lol

[Swimdude]

"Emily could
become a category five hurricane at times."

at times??? lol

Yes, makes sense. Not like she'll stay that way. EWRC occurs frequently enough.

[wxwatcher91]

I know it just sounds strange...

"and Emily could become a catostrophic menace at times"

[Swimdude]

Hahaha it's true when you put it that way. I'm off to take a nap to await the 5 p.m. advisory...

[micktooth]

What's 1 MPH among friends?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The recon found that one mph...156...

[Derek Ortt]

uh,

they WERE wiped out by Gilbert. The Mexican Gov't merely lied when they said no damage (there was none visible as Gilbert flattened everything, making it seem as if there was little damage, but there was total damage)

[tracyswfla]

uh,

they WERE wiped out by Gilbert. The Mexican Gov't merely lied when they said no damage (there was none visible as Gilbert flattened everything, making it seem as if there was little damage, but there was total damage)

What is the benefit of lying about destruction from a hurricane???

[Brent]

[Innotech]

I agree, 1 mph aint gonna make much difference. Emily is a Cat 5 in everything but name. Even her pressure now easily supports it. shes a complete monster.

[simplykristi]

This is not good at all.

Kristi

[Hurricaneman]

Shes still deepening according to the pressures

[Tropicswatcher]

uh,

they WERE wiped out by Gilbert. The Mexican Gov't merely lied when they said no damage (there was none visible as Gilbert flattened everything, making it seem as if there was little damage, but there was total damage)

What is the benefit of lying about destruction from a hurricane???

Mmmmm.....Maybe because you could have an even bigger lost in the economy....losing tourist industry money

[mike18xx]

What is the benefit of lying about destruction from a hurricane???

Government habit?

(Anyone remember the cock-measuring contest the Brazilians got into with the icky-poo Yanquis who were trying to tell them that the first recorded south Atlantic hurricane was on its way?)

[gtalum]

They werent wiped out by Gilbert, and it was significantly more powerful than Emily.

Uh, yeah, they were wiped out by Gilbert. My parents had friends who were trapped in Cozumel when Gilbert came through. Two weeks later they managed to get a flight back to Miami and had to check into a hospital because of dehydration and malnutrition. In the aftermath they spent that two weeks stuck at the Cozumel airport guarded by Federales wielding machine guns, with almost no food and very little water.

[mike18xx]

Shes still deepening according to the pressures

Without a citation, nobody has any idea of what data you're looking at.

[Hurricaneman]

sorry

[cycloneye]

Ok the suspense is building towards the 5 PM Advisorie to see what NHC does in terms of classifying Emily as a cat 5 or not.Very soon the answer will be posted when the advisorie comes out so stay tuned to this thread as in a few minutes the 5 PM will be here.