Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jenshops]

when will we have a REAL idea of where she is going and how strong she will be? Do you think by tomorrow morning? Up till now I've been convinced that Wilma would either fall apart or be too south or too weak to worry about; now I'm starting to worry just a tad.( I live in Venice,Fl). I wouldn't let my husband board up yet, so I'm trying to figure out if we should.

[storms in NC]

I wouldn't be surprised by nothing any more.

[WxGuy1]

this really concerns me - I have a feeling she is going to be worse than most anticipate

For the record, she was a very strong Cat 4, and had been the deepest hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record. So, I think many expect damage to be incredibly bad. I know I certainly expect catastrophic damage, and most should as well. So, I'm not many many are worried about things being worse than anticipate, since many expect the worst.

[6SpeedTA95]

Wilma appears that she is starting make more of a move now...I think this is the beginning of the acceleration.

Also, her "eye" seems to be clearing out a little more as it's nearly all over water now.

where are you seeing that? I'm watching local radar right now and its only the NE quad of the eyewall thats over water.

[stormynorfolk]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

You must be new here. Derek is one of the most highly respected pro mets on this board and his forecasting track record is outstanding. I've read and followed his reports for the last two crazy years and you would do well to listen to what he has to say as well as pay attention to NHC.

If he says the GFS has been unreliable the past couple of years, I'd suggest you learn something from him. He knows what he's talking about and is not just pulling comments like this out of the air. We are extremely fortunate he posts here.

You're more than welcomed for your thoughts... as so am I.

[Brent]

when will we have a REAL idea of where she is going and how strong she will be? Do you think by tomorrow morning? Up till now I've been convinced that Wilma would either fall apart or be too south or too weak to worry about; now I'm starting to worry just a tad.( I live in Venice,Fl). I wouldn't let my husband board up yet, so I'm trying to figure out if we should.

The NHC peaks her tomorrow about this time and then weakens her slightly before landfall... you need to prepare for a landfalling Category 3 though.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Yes, the NE part is over water and the whole eye will be over water here in about an hour or two it looks like.

[cjrciadt]

when will we have a REAL idea of where she is going and how strong she will be? Do you think by tomorrow morning? Up till now I've been convinced that Wilma would either fall apart or be too south or too weak to worry about; now I'm starting to worry just a tad.( I live in Venice,Fl). I wouldn't let my husband board up yet, so I'm trying to figure out if we should.

Maybe 10 to 6hrs before landfall, Charley moved up 2 Cats within that time frame. Though it will not gain that kind of strength because of conditions, but right now a Cat2 is the most "likely".

[Brent]

5pm track: Naples to Port St. Lucie and OFFSHORE by 2pm Monday.

[inotherwords]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

You must be new here. Derek is one of the most highly respected pro mets on this board and his forecasting track record is outstanding. I've read and followed his reports for the last two crazy years and you would do well to listen to what he has to say as well as pay attention to NHC.

If he says the GFS has been unreliable the past couple of years, I'd suggest you learn something from him. He knows what he's talking about and is not just pulling comments like this out of the air. We are extremely fortunate he posts here.

You're more than welcomed for your thoughts... as so am I.

I don't think any rude newbie here who bashes one of the most longstanding and respected posters here is going to be very welcomed, but that's just one of my thoughts that I'm entitled to.

[stormynorfolk]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

You must be new here. Derek is one of the most highly respected pro mets on this board and his forecasting track record is outstanding. I've read and followed his reports for the last two crazy years and you would do well to listen to what he has to say as well as pay attention to NHC.

If he says the GFS has been unreliable the past couple of years, I'd suggest you learn something from him. He knows what he's talking about and is not just pulling comments like this out of the air. We are extremely fortunate he posts here.

You're more than welcomed for your thoughts... as so am I.

I don't think any rude newbie here who bashes one of the most longstanding and respected posters here is going to be very welcomed, but that's just one of my thoughts that I'm entitled to.

I may be new, but I am a financial supporter of this site ... and don't find that I've been rude at all ... my sincere apologies if anything I said offended you.

[brunota2003]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

Whatever!... perhaps all at the NHC should retire, and we'll listen to Derek... no thanks.

I appreciate his insight, however ... it's still a guess.

You must be new here. Derek is one of the most highly respected pro mets on this board and his forecasting track record is outstanding. I've read and followed his reports for the last two crazy years and you would do well to listen to what he has to say as well as pay attention to NHC.

If he says the GFS has been unreliable the past couple of years, I'd suggest you learn something from him. He knows what he's talking about and is not just pulling comments like this out of the air. We are extremely fortunate he posts here.

You're more than welcomed for your thoughts... as so am I.

I don't think any rude newbie here who bashes one of the most longstanding and respected posters here is going to be very welcomed, but that's just one of my thoughts that I'm entitled to.

I may be new, but I am a financial supporter of this site ... and don't find that I've been rude at all ... my sincere apologies if anything I said offended you.

Ok, this thread is for Hurricane Wilma, if you guys what to argue about Derek, please do so in another thread,
Thanks,
Timmy

[Canelaw99]

Ok, quick question - Don Noe (the local ABC met here) just showed 4 of the computer models and mentioned that one (which has it essentially coming in through FL Bay) is the FSU model. Now, is that the big, secret FSU model?? Isn't it fairly reliable????

[6SpeedTA95]

I don't think any rude newbie here who bashes one of the most longstanding and respected posters here is going to be very welcomed, but that's just one of my thoughts that I'm entitled to.

I agree, and not to be another rude noob, but I was here previously and left because of some of the stupidity. NOT stupidity of pro mets but of poeple making ridiculous claims. I came back figured I'd give it another shot, and it looks like for the most part the site is indeed better, although there are still a lot of people I disagree with around you get that at every weather related site I've been too. In otherwords I agree with you.

[gatorcane]

Ok, quick question - Don Noe (the local ABC met here) just showed 4 of the computer models and mentioned that one (which has it essentially coming in through FL Bay) is the FSU model. Now, is that the big, secret FSU model?? Isn't it fairly reliable????

depends on the resolution used.

[Canelaw99]

Hmm..he didn't specify. I'm curious though because it seems like the same general track that the UKMET has. Made me wonder......????

[Ground_Zero_92]

Okay who said it would come off shore around Dinner time this morning?

Well at 4:16am this morning, this was my observation. If anything, i was a bit fast with her then:

From the looks of the IR Sat loop and Water Vapor loop, Wilma has begun it's movement to the North. Currently looks NNW. If anything, it looks to me that she will exit the NE Yucatan earlier than expected. I think she will make a beeline to the water. If I had to guess i would say that she's exiting the Yucatan between the 2pm and 5pm advisories today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[THead]

Yeah, looking at the vis, her eye is coming offshore, and is already starting to look better. She's going to intensify.........oh forget it, she's going to bomb IMHO in the next 24 hours. I don't know why this is so hard to believe for some, taking everything into consideration. Won't be surprised to see her at 150mph in the next 24 hours, so since this is the season of amazement, she'll prolly end up being 160mph. I take my crow fried with hot sauce.......write it down.....

[inotherwords]

when will we have a REAL idea of where she is going and how strong she will be? Do you think by tomorrow morning? Up till now I've been convinced that Wilma would either fall apart or be too south or too weak to worry about; now I'm starting to worry just a tad.( I live in Venice,Fl). I wouldn't let my husband board up yet, so I'm trying to figure out if we should.

The NHC peaks her tomorrow about this time and then weakens her slightly before landfall... you need to prepare for a landfalling Category 3 though.

I'm also just north of Venice in a Cat 2 evac. zone and am getting quite worried. I spent all day getting stuff inside and put up higher but now I'm worried again about surge. Our local mets haven't been very helpful about this or seem very concerned so far. I am worried that if the storm tracks north we could be in big trouble surge-wise.

I have a second story place I can go to tomorrow that's in a Cat 3 zone, it's a sturdily built concrete block two-story condo complex. I'm thinking this might be the best bet. I'm getting so weary, I've been up since daylight moving stuff around. I can't find anyone to help me put up my plywood so I was just going to forget it.

That is one tenacious storm. We don't know how much it will intensify or if it will be sheared a bit, but I only shudder to think what might have happened if it hadn't hit the Yucatan or remained there as long as it did. I'm very sorry for the people in Cancun/Cozumel but I believe Wilma's visit there may have prevented us from getting a category 4 or 5 storm at landfall.

[gunner1551]

Yeah, looking at the vis, her eye is coming offshore, and is already starting to look better. She's going to intensify.........oh forget it, she's going to bomb IMHO in the next 24 hours. I don't know why this is so hard to believe for some, taking everything into consideration. Won't be surprised to see her at 150mph in the next 24 hours, so since this is the season of amazement, she'll prolly end up being 160mph. I take my crow fried with hot sauce.......write it down.....

i have the same general thoughts....... as bad as it may seem, there is no way that this will say below a cat 3