Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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gatorcane
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#3821 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:50 pm

believe Wilma's visit there may have prevented us from getting a category 4 or 5 storm at landfall.


a CAT 4 or CAT 5 is not out of the question.
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#3822 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:50 pm

I too think that the intensity of Wilma is slightly being underestimated. Because of her quicker exist from land, she is also gaining important "non-shear" hours over water... very warm water... prior to her hitting Florida. I do agree shear will be increasing, but not until much later in the forecast period and by then it will be too late to weaken her significantly. In fact, the "weakening" of her will be more from the beginning stages of her phasing with the trough/front coming down. If she winds way back up over the warm loop, that will just give more energy to "unwind" over florida and increase the coverage of high winds. I believe we can count on a CAT 3 at landfall.
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#3823 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:51 pm

boca_chris wrote:
believe Wilma's visit there may have prevented us from getting a category 4 or 5 storm at landfall.


a CAT 4 or CAT 5 is not out of the question.


I know, you've been saying that all along.
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#3824 Postby theworld » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:52 pm

THead wrote:Yeah, looking at the vis, her eye is coming offshore, and is already starting to look better. She's going to intensify.........oh forget it, she's going to bomb IMHO in the next 24 hours. I don't know why this is so hard to believe for some, taking everything into consideration. Won't be surprised to see her at 150mph in the next 24 hours, so since this is the season of amazement, she'll prolly end up being 160mph. I take my crow fried with hot sauce.......write it down.....

:wink:


I hear ya.... sometimes Data in any realm of study has to be taken with a grain of salt.... instinct has been in all life forms for a millenia, keeps you alive. Got to follow your gut. Einstein did.
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#3825 Postby coriolis » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:52 pm

this thread has been zig zagging around too over the last couple pages. Let's keep on topic and even if you disagree with each other, don't be disagreeable.
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#3826 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:52 pm

Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...
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#3827 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:53 pm

Short-wave reflectivity shows her convection is already starting to expand and she has barely even moved offshore yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
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#3828 Postby AZS » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:54 pm

GFS 36 hours

Image
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#3829 Postby gunner1551 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:55 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!
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#3830 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:57 pm

gunner1551 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!


Its called Old man Winter..Cat 5's dont live traveling 30 MPH..
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#3831 Postby THead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:58 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


to use a word i used in this thread about 150 pages ago........
rrrrrrrrrrrright
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#3832 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:59 pm

Image
current SST's
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#3833 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:00 pm

Question, if this does intensify to a 4 or 5, would that affect the forecast track any?

I swear to god, if it weren't for my dear old Mom who is refusing to leave and saying I'm "panicking" I would be on the road and in the mountains of North Carolina already.

Anyone know what the traffic is like on I-75 up from Tampa northward?
Last edited by inotherwords on Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3834 Postby THead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:01 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gunner1551 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!


Its called Old man Winter..Cat 5's dont live traveling 30 MPH..


Speaking for myself, not talking about when its moving 30 mph, talking about the next 24 hours.
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#3835 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:01 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


I agree, at least not plausible at landfall. It seems highly unlikely. Is it possible? sure damn near anything is "possible" but its not likely. I think a 3 at landfall as far north as they're predicting this is about the most we could expect. I really feel a 2 is whats going to make landfall in florida.
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#3836 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:02 pm

new 18Z GFS ...


Landfall central Sarasota County

Image
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#3837 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:03 pm

THead wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gunner1551 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!


Its called Old man Winter..Cat 5's dont live traveling 30 MPH..


Speaking for myself, not talking about when its moving 30 mph, talking about the next 24 hours.


These guys are talking about landfall at that caliber...No Friggin way..
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#3838 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:03 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Image
current SST's


Storms get sheared and dissipate in warm water at all times of the hurricane season. If we just looked at SSTs then all storms would be 5s and we'd all be toast every single time from June 1 to December 1.
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#3839 Postby storms in NC » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:04 pm

gunner1551 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...


do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!


When it does get to the shears to late. She will be a very strong Hurricane.
She will not die off that fast If she does at all. Look what she has done over land. She stayed together and now she is getting stronger. There is one thing you do need to remember is that if she go up to a 5 Sunday she will not last very long as a 5 they never do. So it all dependes on where she is at if she goes to a five. But I have said all along that it would be a high 3 to low 4 into Ft Myers.
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#3840 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:05 pm

The most important thing here isn't being mentioned.

TS Alpha is very close to Wilma.

Caribbean/Gulf climatology of storms close together keeps both storms weaker than if they were solo.


It's humid here...
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