Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

theworld · #3841 Postby **theworld** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:05 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

chris_fit · #3842 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:06 pm

theworld wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

Negative.

Sun is going down.

#3843 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:06 pm

Let me name some storms recenty that have bombed out where Wilma will be in the next 24 hours:

Ivan,
Charley,
Katrina,
Rita

cancunkid · #3844 Postby **cancunkid** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:07 pm

Anyone have a map with where the center of circulation is currently?

6SpeedTA95 · #3845 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:08 pm

inotherwords wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
current SST's

Storms get sheared and dissipate in warm water at all times of the hurricane season. If we just looked at SSTs then all storms would be 5s and we'd all be toast every single time from June 1 to December 1.

Good post there's more to it than SST's, something I've tried to get accross since I started posting. SST's TCHP Shear and about a half dozen other significant factors make a difference.

Website · #3846 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:08 pm

chris_fit wrote:
theworld wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

Negative.

Sun is going down.

So?

gunner1551 · #3847 Postby **gunner1551** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:09 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
THead wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gunner1551 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok people I think that eveone is losing it...Cat 4 and 5's are not plausable...

do you have any evidence to back up this claim?? warm water, currently low shear, slow moving. sounds like a recipe for disaster!

Its called Old man Winter..Cat 5's dont live traveling 30 MPH..

Speaking for myself, not talking about when its moving 30 mph, talking about the next 24 hours.

These guys are talking about landfall at that caliber...No Friggin way..

I agree with you.. not at landfall. but when a storm can ramp it self up to Cat 4 it takes a longer amount of time to decrease. I just cant understand even with the condtions forcasted in the next 1 1/2 -2 days that it will come in a Cat 1 or 2. Even though these storms are not to be messed with either!

artist · #3848 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:09 pm

wxguy1 - all those around my area I have talked to don't even think it will be what Jeanne and Francees were even though the NHC has said they have said she will be worse! I have neighbors not boaarding up, etc. If it gets much worse than predicted earlier then they are in for a real unpleasant surprise!

#3849 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:09 pm

She disappeared
Anyway, a Cat2 is the most likely at landfall.
However it reaches a 3 or 4 before landfall and weakensthe Storm Surge could still come at a higher rate.
We have seen time and again this year the most likely outcome is not the real outcome.

theworld · #3850 Postby **theworld** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:09 pm

chris_fit wrote:
theworld wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

Negative.

Sun is going down.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... /BD/20.jpg

What about the Dvorak?

inotherwords · #3851 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:10 pm

boca_chris wrote:Let me name some storms recenty that have bombed out where Wilma will be in the next 24 hours:

Ivan,
Charley,
Katrina,
Rita

Let me name the months those occurred in. Let me name the cold front that is present now that wasn't present with any of these storms. Let us compare all the conditions for each storm and not just where they were located.

I think we could also go over to Skeetobite's historical site and find a list of storms that were in those areas that didn't bomb out.

jkt21787 · #3852 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:10 pm

Brent wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
theworld wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

Negative.

Sun is going down.

So?

That image shows an explosion during every Sunset. Thats not really happening.

#3853 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:12 pm

wxguy1 - all those around my area I have talked to don't even think it will be what Jeanne and Francees were even though the NHC has said they have said she will be worse! I have neighbors not boaarding up, etc. If it gets much worse than predicted earlier then they are in for a real unpleasant surprise!

People in Palm Beach are taking this way too lightly.

The main reasons right now are

1) Katrina was way overhyped and hardly did anything to us
2) Wilma has weakened to a CAT 2 over the Yucatan and has given
people a false sense of security (she's back on her way to major
hurricane status tonight)
3) She is approaching from the SW rather than the E like Jeanne/Frances.
But people don't realilze that due to her speed and strength, she will
weaken very little crossing the flat everglades.

:eek:

markymark8 · #3854 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:12 pm

Visible Satellite Image tells it all folks. Her core is really getting her act together. The center looks much better than it did just a couple of hours ago. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

chris_fit · #3855 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:12 pm

Brent wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
theworld wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Her NE Quad is exploding as we speak.

Negative.

Sun is going down.

So?

SW IR always shows tons of dark blue as the sun gets lower in the sky.
It is possible that the NE quad is getting stronger but its not exploding, IMO.

#3856 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:14 pm

she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

jkt21787 · #3857 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:15 pm

boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

That is FALSE!!! Chris Fit already explained it. The NE quad is not blowing up. That is an error in the satellite that happens at sunset. All the other sats indicate no increase in cold cloud tops in the NE quad except in one outer band area. No RIC is about to happen.

6SpeedTA95 · #3858 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:16 pm

markymark8 wrote:Visible Satellite Image tells it all folks. Her core is really getting her act together. The center looks much better than it did just a couple of hours ago. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Western side looks bad right now but it'll probably restrengthen as it moves over water. Looks like 1/2 to 2/3 of the eye is now over water.

#3859 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:17 pm

boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

IR also supports some colder cloud tops in the NE semi circle. She is about to come up for a breath of air-water! This needs to be watched carefully, see how fast her eye clears out and watch recon pressure.

6SpeedTA95 · #3860 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:17 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

That is FALSE!!! Chris Fit already explained it. The NE quad is not blowing up. That is an error in the satellite that happens at sunset. All the other sats indicate no increase in cold cloud tops in the NE quad except in one outer band area. No RIC is about to happen.

d
o
t

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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