Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

CHRISTY · #3861 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:17 pm

this thing is about to explod .... iam really worried!

Flakeys · #3862 Postby **Flakeys** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:17 pm

http://www.hogsbreath.com/hogcam/rawbarcam.htm

Locals in Key West

gtalum · #3863 Postby **gtalum** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:17 pm

Some people really don't listen, do they?

Myersgirl · #3864 Postby **Myersgirl** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:19 pm

I was just on my back dock checking the boat, one house boarded up, 5 sets of neighbors having cocktails.... so much for Ft. Myers preperation

inotherwords · #3865 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:19 pm

boca_chris wrote:
wxguy1 - all those around my area I have talked to don't even think it will be what Jeanne and Francees were even though the NHC has said they have said she will be worse! I have neighbors not boaarding up, etc. If it gets much worse than predicted earlier then they are in for a real unpleasant surprise!

People in Palm Beach are taking this way too lightly.

The main reasons right now are

1) Katrina was way overhyped and hardly did anything to us
2) Wilma has weakened to a CAT 2 over the Yucatan and has given
people a false sense of security (she's back on her way to major
hurricane status tonight)
3) She is approaching from the SW rather than the E like Jeanne/Frances.
But people don't realilze that due to her speed and strength, she will
weaken very little crossing the flat everglades.

If she makes landfall in Sarasota County like you're hyping the GFS is saying, then she won't go across the Everglades unless she decides to go SE. So if you think the GFS is your model, which you seem to be doing, you need to re-evaluate where it will exit on the east coast.

jkt21787 · #3866 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:19 pm

gtalum wrote::lol:

Some people really don't listen, do they?

They really don't. Its already been posted 3 or 4 times, and people still talk about as if its real. I guess they can't read the posts beforehand.

markymark8 · #3867 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:20 pm

Won't be long till she is totally offshore. The center looks way better on visible Satellite than it did 2 hours ago. Everyone needs to foces on the east and northeast side of this storm. That is the part of this storm that will be more deadley because her west side will get eroded first with shear and it will shift the worst of the storm east. The east side will not get as much shear and that will be the healthier area of the storm when she makes landfall. As we speak now her northeast eyewall is looking pretty damn good.

inotherwords · #3868 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:21 pm

Myersgirl wrote:I was just on my back dock checking the boat, one house boarded up, 5 sets of neighbors having cocktails.... so much for Ft. Myers preperation

Still time to board up tomorrow morning. I'm with your neighbors, I think I'm ready for a glass of wine or three. This has been a rough day and we have a few more rough ones ahead.

Website · #3869 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:21 pm

chris_fit wrote:SW IR always shows tons of dark blue as the sun gets lower in the sky.
It is possible that the NE quad is getting stronger but its not exploding, IMO.

Oh I see now. I thought you meant it couldn't strengthen because the sun is going down. :lol:

f5 · #3870 Postby f5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:22 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

That is FALSE!!! Chris Fit already explained it. The NE quad is not blowing up. That is an error in the satellite that happens at sunset. All the other sats indicate no increase in cold cloud tops in the NE quad except in one outer band area. No RIC is about to happen.

i bet you would of said that a couple days ago

truballer#1 · #3871 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:22 pm

i think this storm when heads bac to da ocean it would streingthing a lot since its going to beat the shear, and I predict intensity would be 140mph and then weaking 125mph at landfall

Stratosphere747 · #3872 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:23 pm

f5 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

That is FALSE!!! Chris Fit already explained it. The NE quad is not blowing up. That is an error in the satellite that happens at sunset. All the other sats indicate no increase in cold cloud tops in the NE quad except in one outer band area. No RIC is about to happen.

i bet you would of said that a couple days ago

F5 the conditions and SST's are NOT even close to the setup from a "couple" of days ago.

jkt21787 · #3873 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:25 pm

f5 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:she is about to undergo rapid intensification. You are right the Short wave IR shows alot more blue blowing up over the past hour or so.

That is FALSE!!! Chris Fit already explained it. The NE quad is not blowing up. That is an error in the satellite that happens at sunset. All the other sats indicate no increase in cold cloud tops in the NE quad except in one outer band area. No RIC is about to happen.

i bet you would of said that a couple days ago

Actually no I didn't. I knew an RIC was about to happen and it did. It of course was much bigger than anyone was expecting. If you read my personal forecasts, you would have known that.

superfly · #3874 Postby **superfly** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:25 pm

The storm has maintained its structure very well over land with little dry air as opposed to what happened with Katrina and Rita's southern sides. The inner eye wall is eroding right now with the outer eyewall taking over...ERC over land. The center is just about to re-emerge over water.

f5 · #3875 Postby f5 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:26 pm

i realize the conditions aren't as favorable but she NOT sitting over land as forecasted perviously.which gives her time to gain a extra category of strength than forecasted

#3876 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:27 pm

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ? :roll:

thermos · #3877 Postby **thermos** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:27 pm

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down. :roll:

Wilma could never become a 4 or 5 again. :roll:

The NHC forecast is always perfect and wondrous. :roll:

Wilma is wobbling SW. :roll:

#3878 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:27 pm

Latest vortex=957mb and 93kt

truballer#1 · #3879 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:27 pm

this storm is doing well better then I thought it would do over land

inotherwords · #3880 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:28 pm

f5 wrote:i realize the conditions aren't as favorable but she NOT sitting over land as forecasted perviously.which gives her time to gain a extra category of strength than forecasted

I thought she was always forecast to gain a strength category after exiting the Yucatan. At least that's what I've always read in the NHC discussions.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Who is online