Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

jk - you just answered my question

Its just a very slight shift. Its more or less right on the NHC track, just a few mere miles south for reference. The graphic should be up very shortly.

[tronbunny]

18z GFDL is further south than its been in almost 2 days.
Just when the NHC gets comfortable with the more northern trend

One of our local TV mets said the path would probably sway back south and then north at least once or twice before landfall.

[Bellarose]

18z GFDL is further south than its been in almost 2 days.
Just when the NHC gets comfortable with the more northern trend

One of our local TV mets said the path would probably sway back south and then north at least once or twice before landfall.

And THIS is exactly why people get hurricane fatigue. I've been following this, minute by minute, taking breaks if I need to. I'm RIGHT THERE on the border, in Tampa, and after following it all day, I just get to the point that I just couldn't care less how much it affects me. We're as prepared as we need to be. The only question is, will there be work on Monday.

Total burnout, and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone.

Bella

[inotherwords]

Can someone weigh in on what would make this storm track more north or south? Is it the intensity of the trough or how deep it descends? I'd like to understand better what will influence this storm's path. Thanks!

[Brent]

TWC just reported the 64 inch total in Isla Mujeres I posted about earlier...

[jlauderdal]

18z GFDL is further south than its been in almost 2 days.
Just when the NHC gets comfortable with the more northern trend

One of our local TV mets said the path would probably sway back south and then north at least once or twice before landfall.

they have been south of the guidance for days and rightfully so.

[WxGuy1]

18z GFDL is further south than its been in almost 2 days.
Just when the NHC gets comfortable with the more northern trend

One of our local TV mets said the path would probably sway back south and then north at least once or twice before landfall.

And that's why the NHC is usually very slow to shift their track! If you've followed the hurricane season, most models tend to oscillate right and left each 12z and 0z run. In fact, the NHC mentioned that in one of their discussion earlier this season -- the 12z runs continually shifted northward, while the 0z runs shifted back south. It is unwise to even put too much faith in any one model this far out, and it's unwise to read into model trends that haven't been substantiated over 3-4 runs, particularly model trends of only 20-40 miles.

[wxmann_91]

Check out the Mexico board at stormcarib.com. Kevin from Cancun just came back online and posted some more pictures. The damage looks bad but not as catastrophic as I had imagined.

The damage I saw is just as bad as I imagined it would be. Trust me - once you get to the rural areas where houses aren't built to code like most of the hotel zone is, damages will be catastrophic.

The link for those who don't have it:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

[CDO62]

Check out the Mexico board at stormcarib.com. Kevin from Cancun just came back online and posted some more pictures. The damage looks bad but not as catastrophic as I had imagined.

The damage I saw is just as bad as I imagined it would be. Trust me - once you get to the rural areas where houses aren't built to code like most of the hotel zone is, damages will be catastrophic.

The link for those who don't have it:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

Thanks for the link........damage looks brutual.

[cycloneye]

22/2345 UTC 21.5N 87.0W T5.0/5.0 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


Wilma's center is completly in the water now as that position shows.

[Josephine96]

Time for another question lol..

I just read the HLS.. lets just say we here get Hurricane force winds.. {even if it stays on a southern track}.. Does that technically mean I will have been "hit" by Wilma? and can I consider it my 5th hurricane I've been through..?

Or is there an unwritten rule that the eye has to directly pass over my house in order for hit to be considered a "hit"?

silly question I know..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

time to watch the reintensification start up...

I'm almost afraid to go to sleep. all year whenever I've decided to crash out, I've woken up to a much stronger storm!

and since this one is key to my forecast over the next few days... I guess I better just stay up.

time to brew some coffee

[Brent]

Time for another question lol..

I just read the HLS.. lets just say we here get Hurricane force winds.. {even if it stays on a southern track}.. Does that technically mean I will have been "hit" by Wilma? and can I consider it my 5th hurricane I've been through..?

Or is there an unwritten rule that the eye has to directly pass over my house in order for hit to be considered a "hit"?

silly question I know..

I would consider it a hit if you get winds that strong... now if your 300 miles away and only get 1 rainband, then I think that would be different.

[Josephine96]

LMAO! Nah.. No kiddin

[6SpeedTA95]

22/2345 UTC 21.5N 87.0W T5.0/5.0 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


Wilma's center is completly in the water now as that position shows.

It'll be interestin to see fi she can get her act together.

[inotherwords]

time to watch the reintensification start up...

I'm almost afraid to go to sleep. all year whenever I've decided to crash out, I've woken up to a much stronger storm!

and since this one is key to my forecast over the next few days... I guess I better just stay up.

time to brew some coffee

Bet you'll have a lot of company!

[Raebie]

Time for another question lol..

I just read the HLS.. lets just say we here get Hurricane force winds.. {even if it stays on a southern track}.. Does that technically mean I will have been "hit" by Wilma? and can I consider it my 5th hurricane I've been through..?

Or is there an unwritten rule that the eye has to directly pass over my house in order for hit to be considered a "hit"?

silly question I know..

Sure, but the folks on the gulf coast who went through Katrina might beat you to a pulp if you mention it out loud.

[jabber]

You are not alone....

18z GFDL is further south than its been in almost 2 days.
Just when the NHC gets comfortable with the more northern trend

One of our local TV mets said the path would probably sway back south and then north at least once or twice before landfall.

And THIS is exactly why people get hurricane fatigue. I've been following this, minute by minute, taking breaks if I need to. I'm RIGHT THERE on the border, in Tampa, and after following it all day, I just get to the point that I just couldn't care less how much it affects me. We're as prepared as we need to be. The only question is, will there be work on Monday.

Total burnout, and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone.

Bella

[O Town]

Starting to get a circle of cold cloud tops in the middle again.

[yzerfan]

Miami Herald has a storm blog up at:

http://blogs.herald.com/herald_hurricane_reports/

"Yucatan Destruction

Por Esto! newspaper reported that some Cancun hotels were flooded three stories high. Among the damaged: Hyatt Regency, Camino Real, Coral Beach and Plaza Forum.

In the city of Solidaridad, the walls of the local jail collapsed, so five prisoners made a run for it. Four were captured a short time later, Por Esto! reported, but one escaped without a trace.

A reporter who took advantage of a calm in the storm to check out the streets of Cozumel reported widespread destruction, particularly to light poles.

"The houses with tin roofs and block walls saw their roofs fly off like loose leaf,'' the paper said."