Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks to be holding its own...But still has a very broad large eye...Wonder if that larger eye is going to allow for strengthing?

[6SpeedTA95]

I also saw that in a translation of a discussion issued by Mexico. It stated that the rainfall was a storm total NOT a 24 hour total. Even still, from my house on the river 64" of rainfall is a pretty frightning thought..............

64 inches is more than most people get in a YEAR.

lol yeah we get about 32 or 33 inches of rain here per year 64 in like 30 or so hours

[inotherwords]

I wonder how Isle Mujaras (sp?) held up, its right across from Playa Del Carmen.

64 inches of rain... plus surge and 24 hours+ of hurricane force winds. Probably not good.

Reports from last night were that Isla Mujeres was "inundated," whatever that means subjectively. We have friends with a condo there. They're not there now but are wondering if the building is still standing. We don't know at this point.

[Brent]

It looks to be holding its own...But still has a very broad large eye...Wonder if that larger eye is going to allow for strengthing?

It will probably allow for slow strengthening... but I don't expect rapid intensification.

Of course... this is 2005.

[wxmann_91]

I wonder how Isle Mujaras (sp?) held up, its right across from Playa Del Carmen.

Isla Mujeres is across from Cancun, not Playa del Carmen.



I don't know how they fared, but we will see within the next two days. Though my guess is they probably didn't fare well.

[jrtalon]

is there any new info yet on if this thing is weakening, holding steady or strengthening? Haven't really read anything on here in regards to that since the 7pm update. Whens the next recon or Sat. estimate suppose to get there?

[Brent]

is there any new info yet on if this thing is weakening, holding steady or strengthening? Haven't really read anything on here in regards to that since the 7pm update. Whens the next recon or Sat. estimate suppose to get there?

All indications now are that it's holding steady...

A recon fix is scheduled for 2am EDT... leaving at 10:30pm, but we'll see.

[cjrciadt]

[jkt21787]

Folks in Palm Beach County, FL may want to be taking cover if you're online. Tornado Warning active.

Just a sign of things to come...

* AT 958 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF CALOOSA...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIANTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CALOOSA

[Brent]

BAMD is interesting...

[O Town]

Is she trying to clear out her eye, or regaining it, or is that dry air near the center?

[superfly]

If the 64 inches of rain is true, that is flat out ridiculous.

[Brent]

If the 64 inches of rain is true, that is flat out ridiculous.

I don't have reason to doubt it... 2-3 inch an hour rain for 24 hours would add up to that.

[calidoug]

Is she trying to clear out her eye, or regaining it, or is that dry air near the center?

Eye is firming up, and notice the stronger convection in the north semicircle

[Annular]

Western Cuba is expecting up to 50 inches. Isolated 60+ is very real. Just wait until we get pictures - the damage is going to be a nightmare.

[johngaltfla]

Western Cuba is expecting up to 50 inches. Isolated 60+ is very real. Just wait until we get pictures - the damage is going to be a nightmare.

The pictures I just saw on CNN were amazing. And that's before a real good assessment could be made.

I fear it's going to look alot like Mississippi's coast.

[6SpeedTA95]

Is she trying to clear out her eye, or regaining it, or is that dry air near the center?

Thats pretty symetrical to just be dry air, I think she's trying to reorganize a bit. That outter eyewall is massive!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375
MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[markymark8]

looks like to me she it trying to build back her inner eyewall.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 41.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN