Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

MiamiensisWx · #41 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:29 pm

May an MJO chart please be posted?

#42 Postby **Windy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:30 pm

Global warming aside (don't go there! :lol:

) the SSTs are pretty darn warm right now in the GOMEX.

SST Anomaly

SST Temps

oneness · #43 Postby **oneness** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:33 pm

krysof wrote:Worse Case Scenario, Major hurricane slams south florida or keys, Phillipe goes north, ridge builds and forces it west, East Coast major hurricane at North Carolina or so. System near Cape Verdes develops into Stan in a couple of days, goes into gulf or up the East Coast as a major hurricane, a bit far'fetched, absolutely-possible, yes-likely-no.

... you forgot to add, "18 Does Houston", after S FL.

MiamiensisWx · #44 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:33 pm

May the models be posted please?

wxmann_91 · #45 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:33 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:May an MJO chart please be posted?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69418&start=0

#46 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:39 pm

Although I don't wish any storm on any area, I hope it doesn't take a sharp right immediately after going through the FL. straights (if it does) and track up the West Coast of FL. I realize that this is highly unlikely but after watching how Ophelia battered the NC coast, it doesn't paint a very pretty picture especially since our coast would be on the North and east sides.

Lynn

#47 Postby **CronkPSU** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:51 pm

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:54 pm

After going down in recent days it looks like the price of crude oil will go up again as this system enters the gulf.

#49 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:After going down in recent days it looks like the price of a barrel of oil will go up again as this system enters the gulf.

Good point, I'm filling up tomorrow.

ROCK · #50 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:56 pm

I hear you Eye....This is not the year to drive anything bigger than a 10 speed.....

CHRISTY · #51 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:57 pm

I THINK IF THE NW BAHAMAS ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH I THINK ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER HURRICANE WATCH? INFACT I THINK IT ALL DEPENDS HOW LONG IT CONTINUES MOVING WNW ? EXACTLY WHEN IT MAKES THAT BEND TO THE WEST IS THE KEY?? OPINIONS!

#52 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:57 pm

ROCK wrote:I hear you Eye....This is not the year to drive anything bigger than a 10 speed.....

seriously, im realllllly considering getting a hybrid car, perhaps the new 2006 honda civic hybrid.

<RICKY>

ConvergenceZone · #53 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:59 pm

Hmmm, these models seems to be mostly north of what the official 5 day track is showing? Usually the track is more in the middle of the models. Any clue why the track is as far south as it is?

oneness · #54 Postby **oneness** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:25 pm

Ok, what’s with that new convection immediately NNW of 17 but E of 18? … or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Swimdude · #55 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:28 pm

krysof wrote:Worse Case Scenario, Major hurricane slams south florida or keys, Phillipe goes north, ridge builds and forces it west, East Coast major hurricane at North Carolina or so. System near Cape Verdes develops into Stan in a couple of days, goes into gulf or up the East Coast as a major hurricane, a bit far'fetched, absolutely-possible, yes-likely-no.

I think someone's glass is half empty this evening! :lol:

oneness · #56 Postby **oneness** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:29 pm

This loop shows this new convection's continued growth more clearly.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

JTD · #57 Postby **JTD** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:50 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hmmm, these models seems to be mostly north of what the official 5 day track is showing? Usually the track is more in the middle of the models. Any clue why the track is as far south as it is?

A track anywhere close to the Central Western GOM coast would cause mass panic right now.

ROCK · #58 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:59 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hmmm, these models seems to be mostly north of what the official 5 day track is showing? Usually the track is more in the middle of the models. Any clue why the track is as far south as it is?

Because the NHC is looking at the globals and basing its track from it.......the models you are seeing are pretty much worthless above 20N...to quote a local MET.....

thunderchief · #59 Postby **thunderchief** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:00 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hmmm, these models seems to be mostly north of what the official 5 day track is showing? Usually the track is more in the middle of the models. Any clue why the track is as far south as it is?

the clipper and lbar are worthless statistical models, the BAM models are only slightly better, xtrap is just its current track extended forward in time.

#60 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:01 am

oneness wrote:Ok, what’s with that new convection immediately NNW of 17 but E of 18? … or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I see it also at 20n 55W. Never noticed it before you pointed it out.

Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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