TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

wonder if we'll have another really low pressure with this storm?

[krysof]

It would be amazing if this one had an even lower pressure than Wilma by thanksgiving week. More records are being broken as we speak.

[mike815]

That would be something yhats for sure.

[docjoe]

What?! again, I hope this is a fish but the track doesn't show it recurving right now

There can't be a fish inside the caribbean.

not very likely but it has happened

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

docjoe

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now this season is just getting Amazing. This reminds me of Charley/Dennis on where its forming. But the northern Gulf is way to cold to support another like them. So I think this has a good chance at becoming a tropical storm. But a strong hurricane maybe not because its late Novemeber almost.

[HURAKAN]

What?! again, I hope this is a fish but the track doesn't show it recurving right now

There can't be a fish inside the caribbean.

not very likely but it has happened

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

docjoe

There is always an exception to the rule, but in general, almost every storm that forms in the Caribbean makes landfall or at least affects landmass.

Another examples of a Caribbean-born storm that didn't make landfall is Karen in 1989.

[brunota2003]

I know cycloneye said no joking around, but I have to put my $0.02 in before I go to bed, I think Dennis & Wilma have come together to form the perfect cyclone, they will do it with TD 27...it has to do with the falling chuncks of mesophere and everyones heat...The storm will take a Dennis like track, while becoming Wilma Jr. in terms of strength, the only way to stop it is to get the temperture of the whole earth down to 79.2, thats the key number...then the storm will evaporate within 3 seconds... Sorry, just had to do it before it got ugly...

[HURAKAN]

I know cycloneye said no joking around, but I have to put my $0.02 in before I go to bed, I think Dennis & Wilma have come together to form the perfect cyclone, they will do it with TD 27...it has to do with the falling chuncks of mesophere and everyones heat...The storm will take a Dennis like track, while becoming Wilma Jr. in terms of strength, the only way to stop it is to get the temperture of the whole earth down to 79.2, thats the key number...then the storm will evaporate within 3 seconds... Sorry, just had to do it before it got ugly...

I think you are taking that stupid movie to surious!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

FSU MM5 is back in action with this new system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/status

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres 80 knot shear north of the islands. In theres 30 to 50 knot shear over the Gulf/Western Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico is dry as a bone. I say we will have a tropical storm by 4pm tomarrow, As the system will stay under the upper ridge. Once it move past 70 west then it might get unfaverable. But maybe when that ridge builds it could get faverable enough for a cat1. But if it trys to get into the Gulf the dry air + Cold sst's may not allow it to be more then 50 mph tropical storm.

That is just my option. When was the last time a tropical cyclone formed here in mid November?

[SouthFloridawx]

Today's Discussion
Tropical Depression 27 Forms
Posted: 14-NOV-2005 04:16
By Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck
Tropical Depression number 27 formed in the eastern Caribbean Sunday evening. As of 10 PM EST, it was located near 13.5 north or 62.7 west, or about 115 miles west of St. Lucia. It is tracking to the west-northwest at 10 mph and has sustained winds of 30 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars or 29.74 inches.

An upper level trough of low pressure extending southwest into the northern Caribbean is shearing the depression so only limited development is expected over the next day or two, but it could develop into tropical storm Gamma. The upper level trough will lift northeast by midweek and high pressure aloft will build over the central Caribbean, providing more favorable conditions for intensification. There is some concern that we will be dealing with a category 2 hurricane later this week moving slowly west-northwest through the Caribbean. The current call is for it to remain south of 25 north and between 70 and 80 west by next weekend. Upstream changes during Thanksgiving week will be crucial in interacting with this feature in a way that would lead to a strong hybrid type storm, or perhaps a Wilmaish situation for the east coast Thanksgiving week. What we don't see though is a Gulf threat northwest of a Tampa to Merida line.

In the meantime, heavy flooding rains and strong winds gusting to tropical storm force will affect parts of the Windward Islands Sunday night.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SouthFloridawx]

matthurrcane... do you have the graphic that shows the high pressure over?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It shows a ridge building over it...While the shear is to the northwest of it...Also look at 3 hour shear maps. It also shows decreasing shear.

[gatorcane]

it would only be appropriate for a Greek-named storm to hit the U.S., if it did so it would be during Thanksgiving week...

*so* many records could be broken with possible future Gamma

[Praxus]

"IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN
INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS."

perhaps "a strong hybrid type storm, or perhaps a Wilmaish situation for the
east coast Thanksgiving week"

Interesting words from the NHC today ! This season may just go out with
a major bang...

[boca]

What's the chances of future Gamma going harmlessly west into Central America leaving U.S. soil alone.I'm thinking it might pull a Wilma since it is November,but it might hear me.

[SouthFloridawx]

What's the chances of future Gamma going harmlessly west into Central America leaving U.S. soil alone.I'm thinking it might pull a Wilma since it is November,but it might hear me.

your talking toooo loud and accuweather should not be saying words like "wilmaish"

[wxmann_91]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

It shows a ridge building over it...While the shear is to the northwest of it...Also look at 3 hour shear maps. It also shows decreasing shear.

I don't see either. Shear remains strong in TD 27's path, and there is no UL anticyclone anywhere near. Conditions remain marginal.

A random thought, where's Derek? I am interested to hear his thoughts.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

It shows a ridge building over it...While the shear is to the northwest of it...Also look at 3 hour shear maps. It also shows decreasing shear.

I don't see either. Shear remains strong in TD 27's path, and there is no UL anticyclone anywhere near. Conditions remain marginal.

A random thought, where's Derek? I am interested to hear his thoughts.

you can tell the the shear is decreasing ahead of td 27 tonight ... just take a look at the ir and wv loop... it is decreasing as the convection fires up and draws closer to the center.....