Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER
EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI. SINCE THE
CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY
INCREASING THE WINDS. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE
DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN
FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE
LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WILMA
SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. WILMA IS
CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN
ALMOST 48 HR AGO. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES
AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95
KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A
BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE
LANDFALL. WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.8N 86.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 75 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 26/0000Z 41.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

The track from the 10 PM CDT advisorie.

[Canelaw99]

I posted this in the SE FL thread, but figured I'd put it here too because it's very telling for the days to come in S. FL -

Thanks skeet for the awesome graphic!!!!!!

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where is the exact pt of Exit this round Brent?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

From all the local weather and news stories I've been scanning, it really looks like folks are being quite nonchalant about Wilma... saying things like "it's only gonna be a 3 at the most" and not leaving or even boarding up! amazing! I remember the days when a cat 3 was a Major Hurricane! -something to be very concerned about! I think this wacky season of numerous Cat 5's has desensitized people as to how bad just a Hurricane can be! -or how bad a Tropical Storm can be! Remember when N.O. had the early season tropical storm and all the news media was all over it and doing interviews with people that said how bad it was and how suprised they were since it was only a tropical storm. Think Alicia... this could be a similar rain event but for its forward speed...especially when mixing with the front. This will be a massive storm with huge impact across the whole state.
Hmmm.... doesn't electricity usually get knocked out during tropical storms? Now think about how much of the state of florida is expected to get at least tropical storm force winds. -how thin will the electric companies be spread? a "little outage" might take a little longer to get fixed this time. -sorry for the ramble... I'm just tired, storm weary and amazed at some people's stupidity... like the grand folks in Bonita Springs that are doing NOTHING to prepare. grrrrrrrrrrr -because it is only going to be a "weak" storm.

[edbri871]

The crazy thing is, Rita was a cat 3 when it made landfall, and katrina was a 3-4. Wilma should be just as dangerous.

I drove along the beaches today. Went to fort myers beach and bonita beach. Only about 40% of homes were boarded up so far. People are taken it slow I guess. I think tommorow will be a big preparation day.

[Brent]

Where is the exact pt of Exit this round Brent?

Naples to Vero Beach. Landfall looks to be around 7am Monday(it's 20 miles inland at 8am).

[6SpeedTA95]

The crazy thing is, Rita was a cat 3 when it made landfall, and katrina was a 3-4. Wilma should be just as dangerous.

I drove along the beaches today. Went to fort myers beach and bonita beach. Only about 40% of homes were boarded up so far. People are taken it slow I guess. I think tommorow will be a big preparation day.

If this thing picks up a lot of speed lots of folks will be wishing they boarded up much sooner.

[Terry]

TreasureIslandGal - I'm very worried about people being complacent ---Tampa Bay area and south. I've heard for way too many people that are clueless as to what is coming their way.

[jpigott]

looks like the eastern side of the storm is starting to erode

[THead]

Notice that as soon as her eye emerged off the coast the north quad started firing off and is already looking like its trying to wrap around nicely. Once she gets the SW quad out over the water, she's going to really make her last run at it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eye wall is wraping very good. In I expect that inner core is tighting at the same time. She could be strengthing...I'm waiting for the rest of the storm to come off. I expect a cat3 at least.

[KissimmeeRoger]

This storm is forcasted to come onshore at 7AM and be offshore by 11 AM. This is going to be a quickie folks, not a Katrina... Wamm Bamm.. Thank you Wilma !! So will be less damage as a result depending upon the intensity. A storm moving at 10 MPH does more damage than one at 25 MPH.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This storm is forcasted to come onshore at 7AM and be offshore by 11 AM. This is going to be a quickie folks, not a Katrina... Wamm Bamm.. Thank you Wilma !! So will be less damage as a result depending upon the intensity. A storm moving at 10 MPH does more damage than one at 25 MPH.

Not the Case...Andre blew thru at 18 MPH...Enough said...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.

[jamima]

Looks like shes moving NE now. Maybe a more southern hit. What do you guys think.

[TS Zack]

This storm is forcasted to come onshore at 7AM and be offshore by 11 AM. This is going to be a quickie folks, not a Katrina... Wamm Bamm.. Thank you Wilma !! So will be less damage as a result depending upon the intensity. A storm moving at 10 MPH does more damage than one at 25 MPH.

Not the Case...Andre blew thru at 18 MPH...Enough said...

It also makes Wilma look like a baby.

[THead]

This storm is forcasted to come onshore at 7AM and be offshore by 11 AM. This is going to be a quickie folks, not a Katrina... Wamm Bamm.. Thank you Wilma !! So will be less damage as a result depending upon the intensity. A storm moving at 10 MPH does more damage than one at 25 MPH.

Yeah, not comparing intensity but Andrew was a quick mover too. I really think if she goes north of Broward as expected, we're gonna get effects like we haven't seen since Andrew here in Broward and S. Palm Bch county. We've been REAL lucky here in this county, comparitively speaking.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like shes moving NE now. Maybe a more southern hit. What do you guys think.

Its on the schedule..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No Wilma already made Andrew looks like before a Baby. In plus I expect Wilma to be at least 115 mph at landfall. She is is like a Frances or Jeanne but much stronger. Expect about 10 to 15 billion from this one.