Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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cinlfla
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#4061 Postby cinlfla » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:08 pm

Image


0z GFS 48 hours
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sponger
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#4062 Postby sponger » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:09 pm

Power is going to be a problem if this forecast track verifies. Similar to last year in Francis, so many were with out power it took a week to get above 80% restored. Will be a heck of a lot nicer in Oct than in was in August!
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THead
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#4063 Postby THead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:10 pm

sponger wrote:Power is going to be a problem if this forecast track verifies. Similar to last year in Francis, so many were with out power it took a week to get above 80% restored. Will be a heck of a lot nicer in Oct than in was in August!


Yeah, remember there were 1 Million without power after Katrina, in Dade, Broward and WPB
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Canelaw99
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#4064 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Time for someone to kick out the 00Z GFS


Looks a bit south of the previous run.


Well that would mean we have a 100% cons..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


There is not 100% consensus. Look at this from the 11pm disco -
"WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN
FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE
LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE."
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SotabusterFL
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#4065 Postby SotabusterFL » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 pm

0z GFS makes landfall in sarasota county around venice, not port charlotte or fort myers.
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tampastorm
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#4066 Postby tampastorm » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 pm

Dark could tops really firing up on the NORTH side, Hope this isnt a hint of things to come. They always say dont get stuck on where the center comes in, In Wilma's case more then ever.
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#4067 Postby JTD » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:12 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When is this recon?


Next mission is 1 a.m. eastern.
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jkt21787
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#4068 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:12 pm

The 0z GFS however has come to the Consensus area, the Euro is still right, but could come to consensus as well at 0z. The Euro won't be out for several hours still...
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#4069 Postby Windtalker1 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:14 pm

TS Zack wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.


A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.

The good news is, anyone who decides to ride this out will not have to deal with hours of hell. Probably one or two and then the eyewall passes you.

You will always deal with damage!

Anybody in the path, take cover and enjoy your last day of Storm 2K. Power going to be out for awhile! :wink:
Lets see...Tropical Storm Force wind extend about 200 miles from center....moving lets say 15mph....could be a good 10hrs plus for tropical storm force winds and maybe 4-5 hours of hurricane force...thats not fast enough for me!!!!
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Canelaw99
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#4070 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:15 pm

jkt21787 wrote:The 0z GFS however has come to the Consensus area, the Euro is still right, but could come to consensus as well at 0z. The Euro won't be out for several hours still...


I see the 0z GFS now and yep, it's pretty in line. Anyone with a link for the Euro? (I know it won't be out for a while, but figure if I ask for it now it'll appear for later reference :) )
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tronbunny
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#4071 Postby tronbunny » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:16 pm

I disagree with a more southerly move on the GFS.
Looks about the same as 12z.
haven't had a chance to study 18z.
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cinlfla
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#4072 Postby cinlfla » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:17 pm

Looks a bit south of the previous run.




Umm, no its not if anything it looks north of there. When you animate choose fine where it make the image large and you can see its not south of the previous run.
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jkt21787
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#4073 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:17 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:The 0z GFS however has come to the Consensus area, the Euro is still right, but could come to consensus as well at 0z. The Euro won't be out for several hours still...


I see the 0z GFS now and yep, it's pretty in line. Anyone with a link for the Euro? (I know it won't be out for a while, but figure if I ask for it now it'll appear for later reference :) )

http://ecmwf.int
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SotabusterFL
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#4074 Postby SotabusterFL » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:18 pm

what do you mean comes into the consensus area? The 0z GFS is about 60 miles north of the nhc track
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tampastorm
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#4075 Postby tampastorm » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:18 pm

tampastorm wrote:Dark could tops really firing up on the NORTH side, Hope this isnt a hint of things to come. They always say dont get stuck on where the center comes in, In Wilma's case more then ever.

Not much on the south side YET, this thing looks as it not only could make one last good strenght run but will.
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Stratosphere747
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#4076 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:18 pm

cinlfla wrote:
Looks a bit south of the previous run.




Umm, no its not if anything it looks north of there. When you animate choose fine where it make the image large and you can see its not south of the previous run.


I'll stick by the fact it is a bit south...

Remember it is only a model..;)
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markymark8
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#4077 Postby markymark8 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:19 pm

Her eye seems to be looking better now. What u all think???
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
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#4078 Postby TS Zack » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:19 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
TS Zack wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.


A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.

The good news is, anyone who decides to ride this out will not have to deal with hours of hell. Probably one or two and then the eyewall passes you.

You will always deal with damage!

Anybody in the path, take cover and enjoy your last day of Storm 2K. Power going to be out for awhile! :wink:
Lets see...Tropical Storm Force wind extend about 200 miles from center....moving lets say 15mph....could be a good 10hrs plus for tropical storm force winds and maybe 4-5 hours of hurricane force...thats not fast enough for me!!!!


Tropical Storm Force is not bad. You can hold onto power and internet. Once you get that Hurricane Force then the problems begin. Depending on how much she spreads out will determine how long you recieve the core of the winds.

Remember, if you avoid that eyewall you will not get the extensive damage if she is a Major at landfall. Which I highly doubt.
Last edited by TS Zack on Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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otowntiger
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#4079 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:19 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:I don't think Destruction is the one that has been "hoping" for a hit...;)


Tell me about it...I just got my house painted from last years 2...I lived in a friggin Fema trailer for 8 months....I lost 90% of everything in the house from Mold...Not to mention My whole world in Andrew...I never Hope for a hit...I just am here to forecast...(Amaturely)



Sorry. If you notice, I edited my post so now it says nothing. Not the time for such stupid posts, by me that is.
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jkt21787
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#4080 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:20 pm

Just viewed the high res map, and zoomed in. Landfall is over Port Charlotte or in the Charlotte Harbor area.
Last edited by jkt21787 on Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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