Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Windtalker1]

Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.

A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.

The good news is, anyone who decides to ride this out will not have to deal with hours of hell. Probably one or two and then the eyewall passes you.

You will always deal with damage!

Anybody in the path, take cover and enjoy your last day of Storm 2K. Power going to be out for awhile!

Lets see...Tropical Storm Force wind extend about 200 miles from center....moving lets say 15mph....could be a good 10hrs plus for tropical storm force winds and maybe 4-5 hours of hurricane force...thats not fast enough for me!!!!

Tropical Storm Force is not bad. You can hold onto power and internet. Once you get that Hurricane Force then the problems begin. Depending on how much she spreads out will determine how long you recieve the core of the winds.

Remember, if you avoid that eyewall you will not get the extensive damage is she is a Major at landfall. Which I highly doubt.

With all the Rain here in South Florida and the ground already saturated, it won't take much to bring down trees with 50-60 mph winds for 10 hours. Don't forget the forcasted Tornado's either.

[timeflow]

Yeah I remember after Charley passed there was an hour of cool breezes, then everything went completely still. I stood at my window wondering how there could be absolutely no wind after seeing so much. The reality that the power was not coming back on for a week really set in. This time we'll all be opening the windows in relief...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There she go's really starting to wrap in tighten...I expect the recon to find it stronger.

[tampastorm]

There she go's really starting to wrap in tighten...I expect the recon to find it stronger.

100% agree this thing is FAR from over, Bad Bad feeling.

[CronkPSU]

There she go's really starting to wrap in tighten...I expect the recon to find it stronger.

what sat loops are you looking at...GOES seems to be slow updating right now

[otowntiger]

Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.

A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.


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You are both right and wrong on this. Of course a faster moving storm will inflict damaging winds in a much shorter time and will bring much less rain. Those are the good things. The bad thing is that the winds have less time to drop therefore bringing her damaging winds further inland, ala Charley last year. The reason we got 105 mph winds here in Orlando (over 100 miles inland) is that he was moving so fast. The faster movement is also added to the winds in the right front quadrant, in this case anywhere to the south of the storm. In other words, a storm moving 20 mph with sustained winds of 100 could bring 120 winds.

[6SpeedTA95]

There she go's really starting to wrap in tighten...I expect the recon to find it stronger.

She's forcasted to strengthen.

[THead]

Ok, now don't jump all over me but did her eye relocate to the east a bit? I thought the eye was coing off shore more to the W of where it is now. I didn't think that was possible in a storm of this size and strength, so maybe I was looking in the wrong place earlier.......

Look at the last frame, or is it just doing an ERC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[Scorpion]

Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.

A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.


\
You are both right and wrong on this. Of course a faster moving storm will inflict damaging winds in a much shorter time and will bring much less rain. Those are the good things. The bad thing is that the winds have less time to drop therefore bringing her damaging winds further inland, ala Charley last year. The reason we got 105 mph winds here in Orlando (over 100 miles inland) is that he was moving so fast. The faster movement is also added to the winds in the right front quadrant, in this case anywhere to the south of the storm. In other words, a storm moving 20 mph with sustained winds of 100 could bring 120 winds.

Yes very true. Although those 105 weren't sustained(more like 85) that still caused a heck of alot of damage in a short time. If this has 100 sustained over the major urban areas of S FL there will be alot of damage and power outages.

[6SpeedTA95]

Charley came through fast...15 billion in damage.

A faster moving storm is a whole lot better than a slow moving one.


\
You are both right and wrong on this. Of course a faster moving storm will inflict damaging winds in a much shorter time and will bring much less rain. Those are the good things. The bad thing is that the winds have less time to drop therefore bringing her damaging winds further inland, ala Charley last year. The reason we got 105 mph winds here in Orlando (over 100 miles inland) is that he was moving so fast. The faster movement is also added to the winds in the right front quadrant, in this case anywhere to the south of the storm. In other words, a storm moving 20 mph with sustained winds of 100 could bring 120 winds.

If sustained winds are reported at 100mph they factor in the forward movement of the storm. Example of this is when Wilma was at 160mph at her strongest quad, she was at about 140 or so mph in the weaker quad. Difference can and have been even bigger.

[cinlfla]

Just viewed the high res map, and zoomed in. Landfall is over Port Charlotte or in the Charlotte Harbor area.

Sounds about right to me, I can't zoom in so you are able to see more then I can.

[superfly]

The faster movement is also added to the winds in the right front quadrant, in this case anywhere to the south of the storm. In other words, a storm moving 20 mph with sustained winds of 100 could bring 120 winds.

No, the motion is already taken into account when the max sustained winds are reported.

[6SpeedTA95]

Ok, now don't jump all over me but did her eye relocate to the east a bit? I thought the eye was coing off shore more to the W of where it is now. I didn't think that was possible in a storm of this size and strength, so maybe I was looking in the wrong place earlier.......

Look at the last frame, or is it just doing an ERC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I think you're seeing some wrapping in the outter eyewall. Just looks like the eye hasn't cleared.

As for the ERC the NHC discussion earlier mentioned she'd been trying to complete one for more than 24 hrs.

[jkt21787]

Do Keep in mind NHC already accounts for forward speed in the intensity of the storm when issuing their advisories, the same is true for recon observations you see. Its already been accounted for.

Thus if Wilma makes landfall as a 100 mph, it doesn't mean to expect 120. It means to expect 100, as the forward motion is already applied.

[6SpeedTA95]

Do Keep in mind NHC already accounts for forward speed in the intensity of the storm when issuing their advisories, the same is true for recon observations you see. Its already been accounted for.

Thus if Wilma makes landfall as a 100 mph, it doesn't mean to expect 120. It means to expect 100, as the forward motion is already applied.

correct, I tried to give an example above of how it works...

you could get gusts higher than 100mph but wind is measured past a static point or distance between two points. Thats why movement of the storm is already factored in.

[tronbunny]

If sustained winds are reported at 100mph they factor in the forward movement of the storm. Example of this is when Wilma was at 160mph at her strongest quad, she was at about 140 or so mph in the weaker quad. Difference can and have been even bigger.

OK, thanks for that info.

Regardless... yes, parts of Central Florida did see sustained winds around 100mph (+/- 5-10) with Charley.

It was both good and bad that Charley was so fast a mover....
I'm still a bit stunned by it.

But I expect nothing of the sort from Wilma, at least not here.
But could be nearly as bad for the right front (ESE-SE) quad on her projected path.

[CronkPSU]

we expected nothing from charely either here in central florida...we were epxecting pretty much trop storm winds

[THead]

Ok, now don't jump all over me but did her eye relocate to the east a bit? I thought the eye was coing off shore more to the W of where it is now. I didn't think that was possible in a storm of this size and strength, so maybe I was looking in the wrong place earlier.......

Look at the last frame, or is it just doing an ERC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I think you're seeing some wrapping in the outter eyewall. Just looks like the eye hasn't cleared.

As for the ERC the NHC discussion earlier mentioned she'd been trying to complete one for more than 24 hrs.

It almost looks like a smaller eyewall trying to form, trying to wrap around from the north. If it is and it closes off, it means the new eye will be about half the size it was........now awaiting every friggin frame with great anticipation.........

[Scorpion]

Tomorrow will be crucial. Decides whether I get a week with no power or a day.

[cmdebbie]

Although those 105 weren't sustained(more like 85) that still caused a heck of alot of damage in a short time.

Those 105 certainly were sustained here in Oviedo (Northeast of Orlando) with higher gusts. 85 was more north and west of here (like west of I-4).