Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[thermos]

NHC confirmed it was organizing in their last discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE WINDS.

If you want to argue with the NHC fine. I'm just going with what they are saying.

Why are you taking a post by me more many hours ago and twisting it to mean something else entirely, then applying it to right now?

Because you continue to say that the storm is getting weaker when it is obviously is getting stronger based on the satellite appearance and the NHC discussion. For example, you got very excited and used one of these -> ! when it went up just 3 mb.

[jkt21787]

NHC confirmed it was organizing in their last discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE WINDS.

If you want to argue with the NHC fine. I'm just going with what they are saying.

Why are you taking a post by me more many hours ago and twisting it to mean something else entirely, then applying it to right now?

Because you continue to say that the storm is getting weaker when it is obviously is getting stronger based on the satellite appearance and the NHC discussion. For example, you got very excited and used one of these -> ! when it went up just 3 mb.

A pressure rise does not indicate intensification. Sorry... AT THE LEAST its steady.

I could care less what the sat says when recon is in there...

[floridahurricaneguy]

Anyways...

jkt21787: what do you expect this to landfall as? Do you think it will turn hybrid prior to landfall like some think.

Matt

[THead]

/ignore thermos

[jkt21787]

Anyways...

jkt21787: what do you expect this to landfall as? Do you think it will turn hybrid prior to landfall like some think.

Matt

Matt, despite Thermos's attacks and his putting words into my mouth, I do expect Wilma to get better organized and strengthen a bit to cat 3 strength before the shear takes it back to a 2 at landfall. 105-110 mph is my call at this time.

It could be in early stages of hybrid transition at that time, but should still be mostly if not all tropical.

[thermos]

And apparently you could also care less what NHC said about the cloud tops cooling in the last discussion? We should just dismiss what they said? That tiny pressure pressure could have happened earlier between this recon and the last one.

[curtadams]

Radar shows why she's weakening. The outer eyewall is getting a little ragged. The inner eyewall is just a weak semicircle. In spite of satellite, her organization is worsening. The outflow is hiding weak spots in the eyewall.

[thermos]

Wilma is still barely offshore. Almost stationary from 11PM to 2AM. That might explain the initial cooling of cloud tops and then now not much progress on organizing.

I apologize for the sunset remarks. I will make no more mention of sunsets.

[THead]

Radar shows why she's weakening. The outer eyewall is getting a little ragged. The inner eyewall is just a weak semicircle. In spite of satellite, her organization is worsening. The outflow is hiding weak spots in the eyewall.

Could it be cause she is moving so slowly again? Just like she seemed to not want to make landfall, seems like the southern edge of her eye is "hanging" onto land. Still not fully over water.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Radar shows why she's weakening. The outer eyewall is getting a little ragged. The inner eyewall is just a weak semicircle. In spite of satellite, her organization is worsening. The outflow is hiding weak spots in the eyewall.

OMG THE GOVERMENT!!!!

[THead]

Almost 200 pages.........

[Ground_Zero_92]

Wilma has a 70 mile wide eye as per latest recon vortex message. Wow!

[Lori]

And almost 4000 posts!!!


And many more to come!!!

[floridahurricaneguy]

Anyways...

jkt21787: what do you expect this to landfall as? Do you think it will turn hybrid prior to landfall like some think.

Matt

Matt, despite Thermos's attacks and his putting words into my mouth, I do expect Wilma to get better organized and strengthen a bit to cat 3 strength before the shear takes it back to a 2 at landfall. 105-110 mph is my call at this time.

It could be in early stages of hybrid transition at that time, but should still be mostly if not all tropical.

I hate it when people puts words in your mouth. Thanks for the reply. So very close to being possible weak 3 at landfall. Thanks for email also. I really like using powerpoint to make forecasts. Good night all!

Matt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wilma has a 70 mile wide eye as per latest recon vortex message. Wow!

She has changed alot in her life...

[curtadams]

Radar shows why she's weakening. The outer eyewall is getting a little ragged. The inner eyewall is just a weak semicircle. In spite of satellite, her organization is worsening. The outflow is hiding weak spots in the eyewall.

Could it be cause she is moving so slowly again? Just like she seemed to not want to make landfall, seems like the southern edge of her eye is "hanging" onto land. Still not fully over water.

Dunno. To me it looked like there was a weak area where the eyewall moved off the land (ie after the wall section had been a while without fuel.) As the areas travel around they recover convection but they don't seem to completely seal things up.

[tronbunny]

I don't know why this took so long to sink in...
From the 11pm discussion:

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WILMA
SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.

The new track looks just as ENE as ever, but the consensus is running NE, and the 00z GFS is hinting at a more tilted N trough.
anyone think we'll see anymore northerly component to movement/track tomorrow AM?

[thermos]

Still looks to be organizing. Some new convection near the inner eye wall. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Skeetergirl]

Cooling cloud tops means strengthening just like the NHC said and not like these others are saying.

Hello? How thick is your head? Do you just ignore every post but your own? Do I need to explain for the thousandth time about this? Jeez...

People like you are why I am mere seconds away from leaving this board permanently.

Maybe you need to take a break! Jeez!

[THead]

Cooling cloud tops means strengthening just like the NHC said and not like these others are saying.

Hello? How thick is your head? Do you just ignore every post but your own? Do I need to explain for the thousandth time about this? Jeez...

People like you are why I am mere seconds away from leaving this board permanently.

Maybe you need to take a break! Jeez!

You need to go back to like page 160 to get the full story on what led to this. Believe me for everyone's sake, its better that the sun set on this mini-thread.