Hurricane Emily Advisories

Website · #441 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:30 pm

The area west of Jamaica and south of Grand Cayman is notorious for producing the most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Gilbert, Mitch, and Ivan all reached their peaks there. I see no reason why this will not do the same. Sure it's July... but the water is plenty warm and she's already a borderline Cat 5. Any increase in winds makes her a 5.

Normandy · #442 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:30 pm

Hmmm i think tthey are toooo far south.

gkrangers · #443 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:31 pm

Southern eyewall eroding on latest satellite.

Storm cancel.

:lol:

Its only bright red and not white anymore. :wink:

mike18xx · #444 Postby **mike18xx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:31 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...
By my calculation (160 X 1.1515), that's 184.16 (approximating to 185 mph!) (Ain't gonna happen)

Why couldn't it happen?

Look what Mitch did in the last week of October in a sheared environment, and what Gilbert accomplished despite plowing straight over Jamaica. Does this portion of the Caribbean have a lower heat content than the northern Gulf in early August (i.e., Camille)? Hurricane Allen reached 180mph twice, once in the Caribbean, and a second time in the central Gulf.

Emily has about the best shot at the belt as anything I've seen yet.

#445 Postby **abajan** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:34 pm

Brent wrote:The area west of Jamaica and south of Grand Cayman is notorious for producing the most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Gilbert, Mitch, and Ivan all reached their peaks there. I see no reason why this will not do the same. Sure it's July... but the water is plenty warm and she's already a borderline Cat 5. Any increase in winds makes her a 5.

That's true. Another factor to consider is that these systems tend to intensify overnight. It could be well above the Cat 5 threshhold by 5:00 AM.

mike18xx · #446 Postby **mike18xx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:35 pm

Normandy wrote:Hmmm i think tthey are toooo far south.

Current loops show an almost NW movement lately; I'm suspect it's temporary, but it'll bring the Yucatan impact up a bit closer to those expensive resort properties....

Normandy · #447 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:36 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Normandy wrote:Hmmm i think tthey are toooo far south.

Current loops show an almost NW movement lately; I'm suspect it's temporary, but it'll bring the Yucatan impact up a bit closer to those expensive resort properties....

I actually think Cozumel has a good shot of encountering Emily's eye....as does Brownsville.

mike18xx · #448 Postby **mike18xx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:38 pm

Kingston is just getting hammered by the eastern feeder. Stayed tuned for the flood footage on TWC...

mike18xx · #449 Postby **mike18xx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:40 pm

Normandy wrote:Cozumel has a good shot of encountering Emily's eye....as does Brownsville.

It could go right over Coz, but I think it'll miss B by quite a bit. The NW jog threatens Grand Cayman....

Normandy · #450 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:41 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Normandy wrote:Cozumel has a good shot of encountering Emily's eye....as does Brownsville.
It could go right over Coz, but I think it'll miss B by quite a bit. The NW jog threatens Grand Cayman....

You think itll land south of Brownsville?

mike18xx · #451 Postby **mike18xx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

For the moment, yes.

(Of course, if you're in Brownesville, you want it to hit that empty section of Texas between B and Galvastan, not go south and subject you to a good right-side hammering.)

Swimdude · #452 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:57 pm

This advisory being late [or... last minute] is causing my family to be late for dinner. :lol:

#453 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:58 pm

In a matter of a couple of minutes the advisorie will be posted.They are waiting to see if some data from recon is included.

Website · #454 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:58 pm

Swimdude wrote:This advisory being late [or... last minute] is causing my family to be late for dinner.

LOL

Big Brother's about to be on. :lol:

SurvivedIvan · #455 Postby **SurvivedIvan** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:00 pm

I love Big Brother!

Website · #456 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:01 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY
SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT
TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM
THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH
POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Swimdude · #457 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:02 pm

929 mb. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new July record.

#458 Postby **abajan** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:02 pm

Swimdude wrote:This advisory being late [or... last minute] is causing my family to be late for dinner.

Yeah and because I'm using a dial-up connection, it's tying up my phone line!

Scorpion · #459 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:06 pm

A new July record that just broke the old one set only 6 days ago.

canegrl04 · #460 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:06 pm

If shes going to become cat 5 I guess its gonna happen by 11pm advisory.I'm going to make sure I stick around the board for that one

Hurricane Emily Advisories

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