Hurricane Katrina

[rockyman]

When I read the marine advisory, it was sooo much different than what I expected that I honestly had to read it 3 times...I just knew that I must have been looking at a forecast for some other storm. Avila will either look VERY smart or VERY, well, you know, in the next few hours. This is the biggest negative backlash I think I've seen on this board about an NHC discussion.

[cjrciadt]

no, it hasn't still moving WSW or SW...they are on something and avilia is horrible

look at radar, its clearly moving w.

I'm looking at radar and I saw a W movement in one frame and a SW movement in the next. It might very well be moving west, but it's not clear to me.

GRlevel3 is clearly showing SW movement for the past 3hrs.

[Ixolib]

I was a little surprised by Avila's prediction of 45 knots in 12 hours (after it's off the coast)...unless this thing collapses in the next few hours...

And he also said forecast is with the global models and that this could be a "dangerous" hurricane in 3 days. Not sure, but the models indicated a MAJOR, and perhaps I'm not clear on the definition of "dangerous", but does 85K meet that description?

72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT

[Derek Ortt]

its only 20 miles from the coast, if it moves at 225. Even less if it turns back west.

I have no clue what NHC is thinking to be honest

[mtm4319]

its only 20 miles from the coast, if it moves at 225. Even less if it turns back west.

I have no clue what NHC is thinking to be honest

That's what I was alluding to here:

The 10pm position estimate will probably have it around 25.7 N. A west-southwest movement is perpendicular to the angle of the coast, but it might even be moving enough southward to increase the time it's over land by an hour or two (but it probably won't make much difference).

[senorpepr]

I will eat the keyboard if this has 50 mph winds when I wake up tomorrow...

If you do eat the keyboard... take pictures. We need a good laugh or two.

[timeflow]

That Intellicast loop shows a more symmetrical storm, clearer eye, but the intensity of the returns from the eyewall have dropped off some. Still if it holds this kind of form until seafall in a few hours it should be fueling up. I really doubt that forecast 45 knot future is realistic on this. It's so close to that hot gulf water, and looks too healthy.

[senorpepr]

no, it hasn't still moving WSW or SW...they are on something and avilia is horrible

look at radar, its clearly moving w.

I'm looking at radar and I saw a W movement in one frame and a SW movement in the next. It might very well be moving west, but it's not clear to me.

GRlevel3 is clearly showing SW movement for the past 3hrs.

I concur. I've been watching the RIDGE Radar and it's clearing showing a SW or maybe WSW movement for the past three hours or so.

[Brent]

I will eat the keyboard if this has 50 mph winds when I wake up tomorrow...

If you do eat the keyboard... take pictures. We need a good laugh or two.

Don't see it happening, but the camera's in the drawer.

[storms in NC]

It could be that they didn't forcast it to go this far south and out in the gulf in 2 hours. You know they had crow for a snak tonight.

[FlSteel]

I agree with you timeflow. I don't see Kat dropping to 45 knots.

[Stratosphere747]

Kat has appeared to have bottomed out and resumed w heading..

Still going WSW....

Even had one of those jogs more to the SW...

Should start moving towards a true westerly motion soon...

[Sanibel]

The high pressure that pushed it SW is so dry that we've been high and dry with overcast and low rain-less band clouds since 4pm...

[Eyes2theSkies]

I live near Orlando and I am supposed to be going on vacation to tennessee on Saturday. Do you think I should stay put.

[Sanibel]

Orlando OK. You are under the high pressure that is pushing the storm south. Doubt it will hook back NE...

[Frank P]

per the NWS experimental radat she is only 16 miles from the GOM... she should be entering the GOM within the next two hours or so if she maintains her current speed... at about 1 am CDT...

[PurdueWx80]

Take a look at the 00z Canadian regional model - this one has done a pretty decent job over the last few days (correctly hit south Florida). Now it deepens rapidly to a 946 mb storm in the Gulf as it continues on it's general WSW to W heading. Here it is, 48 from now, rapidly deepening:

[mtm4319]

On radar it looks like the eye is finally starting to fall apart a little bit. I'll guess 65-70mph when it emerges offshore, probably between the 1am and 3am updates.

[Stormcenter]

Take a look at the 00z Canadian regional model - this one has done a pretty decent job over the last few days (correctly hit south Florida). Now it deepens rapidly to a 946 mb storm in the Gulf as it continues on it's general WSW to W heading. Here it is, 48 from now, rapidly deepening:

At the clip she moving at now she may be further west than that on Sunday. I just got to believe she has to slow down sometime soon if this will pan out.

[MyGulfParadise]

IMHO I think this thing will probably leave the coast somewhere around Highland Beach.