Tropical Storm Ophelia

#441 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 5:31 pm

remember though....most of those are GFS based....so, what ever the gfs does...most will follow....im not buyint the 12z gfs run...

#442 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 5:34 pm

forget about all the BAM and LBAR models. Try to focus more on the global models. However even that can prove challenging since they arent agreeing that much.

<RICKY>

#443 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 5:50 pm

Here's yet another thought:

Try not focusing on the models so much and concentrate more on the synoptics, steering currents (esp days 3-7) etc. :wink:

#444 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 5:52 pm

I have to say, this was a really quotable discussion! :lol:

THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT.

Great English. Alright, I'm a complete snob, I admit it. :lol:

...AND THE STORY GOES ON AND ON.

First time I've ever seen that quote in a discussion....LOL! :lol:

With all due respect to Avila, as he is obviously a great forecaster, this still was definitely one of the more entertaining discussions so far this year, IMO.

-Andrew92

#445 Postby **feederband** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:55 pm

*Whistling* no 8 YET...?

Website · #446 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 6:56 pm

feederband wrote:*Whistling* no 8 YET...?

It will be posted when it comes out. :lol:

They are probably waiting for a recon fix. Look for it at 8:00 or 8:01.

#447 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:01 pm

still nuttin

Website · #448 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:02 pm

I think they forgot... :lol:

*vigorously refreshes* :grr:

#449 Postby **feederband** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:03 pm

CronkPSU wrote:still nuttin

Just me whistling... :wink:

#450 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:03 pm

tapping fingers inpatiently

Website · #451 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:03 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THIS MORNING. A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

#452 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:03 pm

ah there it is!

better organized

timeflow · #453 Postby **timeflow** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:04 pm

Let's see if it meandered a touch SW like I've seen on the loop...
Actually turned out to be .1 S and .1 E of where it was at 5pm.
Pressure down a touch, hmm. The suspense of it sitting out there.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #454 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:04 pm

Two more millibars

#455 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:20 pm

when will they issue hurricane watches?

#456 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:27 pm

eye hasn't looked as good tonight, maybe the intensifying will not happen as quickly as some on this board think

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml

#457 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:32 pm

Wow this seems like a replay of Katrina (one sided storm, not potential for bombing) I guess it will be a long week of waiting. We are saturated here in St Augustine but atmospheric conditions dried out this evening. Nice to get a break before the next deluge arrives. Feels like a cool fall night.

#458 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:34 pm

Yes, I was up in St. Augustine this past Labor Day weekend. It's already an eerie town but the wind was up around 20-30 mph most of the time with a train of showers that were rolling through from the Atlantic. I hadn't been monitoring the weather but you could tell there was something brewing in the Atlantic.

I didn't see any ghosts. I think they decided to leave the town early :eek:

Deb321 · #459 Postby **Deb321** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:34 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:when will they issue hurricane watches?

It's not a hurricane yet. According to TWC that is not expected right away.

#460 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:39 pm

hmmmm 00z models should be out now

Tropical Storm Ophelia

Who is online