Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

Direct hit on Houston:

[gatorcane]

The northern Gulf high is moving west and it appears to be breaking down some as evident by the oranges fading in the WV loop over the Gulf and Florida.

That means there could be a weakness developing in the ridge already which would pull it WNW into S. Florida and into the Eastern Gulf.

[ronjon]

I don't understand how a high at these lattitudes can move west. They typically move east.

Please expound on the potential ramifications of this westerly shift and it's effects on the FL Keys and South Florida.

They can retrograde - move west. This high appears to be weakening on its eastern extent and shifting slightly west - probably in response to the trough diving down into the coastal area of NC. The models probably account for this but it is interesting none-the-less. It could, emphasize could, mean that the ridging is weaker over FL thus allowing a more poleward motion by the storm - at least in the short term. I think this high over TX is forecast to rebuild eastward after the trough over the mid-atlantic exits off the coast.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[SkeetoBite]

[Jono]

This makes no sense.. Im in the Bahamas right now at work and currently no plans of closing yet eventhough were in a hurricane warning..

[cjrciadt]

[Canelaw99]

Nassau is not under a hurricane warning right now - it was dropped earlier this morning.

[Canelaw99]

Nassau is not under a hurricane warning right now - it was dropped earlier this morning.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997
MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z
WERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED
HEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM
IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII
CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA
AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.0N 75.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W 100 KT

[canegrl04]

CRAP The latest conus has shifted to include MS.yesterday it just covered western half of LA

[dwg71]

When does the East trend stop? Its moved from TX/MEX to Mid TX coast to upper TX coast. And that's just the NHC track and they are slow to move. The models are already East of Houston.

[sma10]

Rita is already moving towards the west. Landfall later tonight in SFL starting to look less likely.

I disagree, and it has nothing to do with where I live....I've been watching the news all morning, and even Max Mayfield was hinting at a northern shift to the track at 11am, as well as an extension of the watches/warnings further north. In my opinion, they wouldn't be doing those things if the danger wasn't there.

Please don't misinterpret what I was trying to say. I never meant to suggest that Homestead was going to have a calm, sunshiney day. The weather in Southern Florida tonight and tomorrow is going to be downright ugly.

What I stated was that LANDFALL is looking less likely in mainland South Florida. Even after the northern adjustment by the NHC, it doesn't appear that Rita's center will cross 80W any further north than 24.5 or so.

Obviously, it's still possible for Rita to strike the peninsula directly, but she will have to traverse the northern edge of the NHC cone. I would think that places such as Marathon and Key West are very much under the gun.

[Flakeys]

Keys Storm Surge

STORM SURGE FLOOD & STORM TIDE IMPACTS.
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE
ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF
SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON.
THEREFORE.A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM
PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE
HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY.& TUES AT 1118 AM &
1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM & 1134 PM
TODAY.& AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY.& FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER.THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE
PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

[Canelaw99]

Thank you for clarifying sma and I agree with ya on that It's definitely looking more and more dangerous for folks in the Keys with each advisory. It's been fairly gusty here already, so I can just imagine how it will be later tonight and tomorrow as the TS winds and potential hurricane gusts come through.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Key west is in trouble....looking at the lates track would put them in the NE Quad and possible Cat 2 by then....Almost time of ins co's. to start writing checks again...for FL...Key west can look for wind gusts well over 100 MPH

[Flakeys]

Monroe County has just ordered an evacuation for ALL the Keys...

[Canelaw99]

I thought I just heard that but was looking for confirmation - ty....sheesh - that's bad when they evac ALL of the Keys - they're not messing around.

[vaffie]

Those last three or four satellite pictures are really impressive. I think we'll see it's eye become visible in just the next two hours.

[tw861]

When does the East trend stop? Its moved from TX/MEX to Mid TX coast to upper TX coast. And that's just the NHC track and they are slow to move. The models are already East of Houston.

I don't know dwg... The only model that is significantly east of Houston is the GFDL. And even with that Houston is right in the middle if you average them all out.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I doubt there is much of a shift further east than central Louisiana, and they could also shift back to the west with time. In my opinion, this is a serious threat to the upper Texas/SW Louisiana coasts.

And no, I don't want it to come here. I'm scheduled to leave on a flight out of Hobby airport at 8am Saturday, and if this track is anywhere close to verifying I won't be going anywhere.