Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[floridahurricaneguy]

Ok is skeetobites wind map is right there is no way tampa gets TS winds. When they deffinitely forecasting that.

Matt

[thermos]

I know nothing about canes except to run. But since it went so quickly from a cat 1 to a cat 5 before, am I to understand that it isn't possible now to do so?

It would need perfect conditions and it doesn't have that. It's got too large of an eye and is disorganized. The satellite presentation is pathetic.

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

[cjrciadt]

this is what Derek Ott just said looking at the latest winds in Wilma:

holy god

looks like the entire metro areas (MIA, FLL, and WPB will get cat 1 or cat 2 conditions

It might not get stronger, but many people outside the landfall point will feel Cat1 or greater winds.

[6SpeedTA95]

I know nothing about canes except to run. But since it went so quickly from a cat 1 to a cat 5 before, am I to understand that it isn't possible now to do so?

It would need perfect conditions and it doesn't have that. It's got too large of an eye and is disorganized. The satellite presentation is pathetic.

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

Yeah the sat presentation is very pathetic, I'm honestly surprised it was still a cat2 from looking at it. She is definately organizing brent didnt' say she wasn't he said she needs perfect conditions to regain cat5 status something she doesn't have.

[jpigott]

this is what Derek Ott just said looking at the latest winds in Wilma:

holy god

looks like the entire metro areas (MIA, FLL, and WPB will get cat 1 or cat 2 conditions

It might not get stronger, but many people outside the landfall point will feel Cat1 or greater winds.

this storm has a Katrina-like windfield (likely not as intense though). The windfield is huge. If there ever was a storm where its not all that important to focus on "the black line", this is it

[thermos]

I see now -- pathetic compared to a Cat 5. Visible is starting to look pretty good.

[skysummit]

I know nothing about canes except to run. But since it went so quickly from a cat 1 to a cat 5 before, am I to understand that it isn't possible now to do so?

It would need perfect conditions and it doesn't have that. It's got too large of an eye and is disorganized. The satellite presentation is pathetic.

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

Yeah the sat presentation is very pathetic, I'm honestly surprised it was still a cat2 from looking at it. She is definately organizing brent didnt' say she wasn't he said she needs perfect conditions to regain cat5 status something she doesn't have.

Right...Brent is correct. Satellite presentation doesn't look too spiffy right now, but she is getting better organized. However...there's no way she'll become a Cat 5 again...no way, no how.

[thermos]

Looking much better.

[HurricaneGirl]

Please stay safe everyone down there!!

[curtadams]

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

It just says Dvorak numbers are getting higher. That's not necessarily organization. Wilma is a mess now - open outer wall, ragged inner wall, both imbalanced. Hurricane don't get much LESS organized than this. It takes quite a while for a hurricane to straighten things like that out - and she doesn't have the time. In less than 24 hours she hits distinctly less favorable conditions. Pressure keeps rising and winds keep dropping.

[jlauderdal]

I know nothing about canes except to run. But since it went so quickly from a cat 1 to a cat 5 before, am I to understand that it isn't possible now to do so?

It would need perfect conditions and it doesn't have that. It's got too large of an eye and is disorganized. The satellite presentation is pathetic.

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

Yeah the sat presentation is very pathetic, I'm honestly surprised it was still a cat2 from looking at it. She is definately organizing brent didnt' say she wasn't he said she needs perfect conditions to regain cat5 status something she doesn't have.

norcross just said its looking better and probably intensifying a bit. so please go back to class and take sat anlaysis 101 again.

[WxGuy1]

I was telling people last night Alpha would do something to Wilma.

The storm is way right. I think we are going to stay here on Sanibel.


South of Marco, now, but my eye says even further south than that.

As I said last night and people ignored me - Alpha will keep Wilma down. Caribbean/Gulf climatology does not support strong storms in close proximity...

In all honesty, I think Alpha is having a very minimal impact on Wilma's path. Alpha's just too weak (a >1005mb TD right now) to have much of an impact.

[Brent]

I wouldn't rule out some strengthening, but to nothing more than a marginal 3 and it will probably do that soon and then weaken. That's why if it's going to do something, it needs to do it soon. This is the best conditions are going to be for it.

[AZRainman]

One thing I noticed in the intensities this year, the SHIPS model has consistently under estimated the hurricanes strength forecasts.

Keeping that in mind, strong cat 3 is not out of the question.

Bryan Norcross: Wilma could easily be a cat 3 or even a cat 4 .

[6SpeedTA95]

I know nothing about canes except to run. But since it went so quickly from a cat 1 to a cat 5 before, am I to understand that it isn't possible now to do so?

It would need perfect conditions and it doesn't have that. It's got too large of an eye and is disorganized. The satellite presentation is pathetic.

Pathetic? Wilma is organizing now. Read the last NHC discussion.

Yeah the sat presentation is very pathetic, I'm honestly surprised it was still a cat2 from looking at it. She is definately organizing brent didnt' say she wasn't he said she needs perfect conditions to regain cat5 status something she doesn't have.

norcross just said its looking better and probably intensifying a bit. so please go back to class and take sat anlaysis 101 again.

brent and I both said she's looking better, that doesn't mean she still doesn't look bad. Pull up the IR and WV and tell me that it looks like a strong stable hurricane, IT DOESNT!!!!! In my post that you quoted I said its getting more organized, READ FOLKS PLEASE READ!!!!

[gatorcane]

ummm...

Where is the dry air?

Where is the shear?

I don't see either impacting Wilma at the moment.

[johngaltfla]

I wouldn't rule out some strengthening, but to nothing more than a marginal 3 and it will probably do that soon and then weaken. That's why if it's going to do something, it needs to do it soon. This is the best conditions are going to be for it.

A marginal 3 would be very bad for Marco Island. There's about $9 billion worth of real estate there and not a lot of high ground.

I was down there on Monday for business and the locals were really starting to freak out...

If there's a 12 ft. or hight surge, it will be a mess there.

[bigmike]

ummm...

Where is the dry air?

Where is the shear?

I don't see either impacting Wilma at the moment.

And to think that Floydbuster made a video with you

[gatorcane]

video?

[6SpeedTA95]

I wouldn't rule out some strengthening, but to nothing more than a marginal 3 and it will probably do that soon and then weaken. That's why if it's going to do something, it needs to do it soon. This is the best conditions are going to be for it.

Correct, its over a bit of water with a little heat potential anything it does it'll need to do within the next 12 hrs.