Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[6SpeedTA95]

ummm...

Where is the dry air?

Where is the shear?

I don't see either impacting Wilma at the moment.

Thats whats pushing her west, there's a lot of desert air moving accross the gulf as we speak they're both having an impact on her development.

[theworld]

I wouldn't rule out some strengthening, but to nothing more than a marginal 3 and it will probably do that soon and then weaken. That's why if it's going to do something, it needs to do it soon. This is the best conditions are going to be for it.

A marginal 3 would be very bad for Marco Island. There's about $9 billion worth of real estate there and not a lot of high ground.

I was down there on Monday for business and the locals were really starting to freak out...

If there's a 12 ft. or hight surge, it will be a mess there.

I little off topic.... but ya know, all that real estate speculation going on down there..., and the market starting have a large increase in inventory and people having to lower prices to sell in many large markets (i.e. NY, CA)... i feel really bad for them as they could just not losse value but the all.

[thermos]

The NHC said it could still strengthen today and tonight. Wilma has plenty of time to get to a Cat 3.

[Scorpion]

Deep convection occuring around the eye. Definitely not weakening.

[curtadams]

ummm...

Where is the dry air?

Where is the shear?

I don't see either impacting Wilma at the moment.

Shear is visible in the clouds skidding NE on her NW flank. The higher convection on her NW flank is probably shear, which increases convection. Dry air isn't a problem now, but disorganization is. There's no clear eye. The outer wall has a huge gap in convection on the E side in satellite. The inner "wall" is still just a couple of separate thunderstorms - not a wall. She's still not at the nadir of the current reverse ERC since the outer, stronger wall is the weakening one.

Out of curiosity, why do you think she's weakening? Pressure is up from 957 to 964 and winds have fallen from 100 mph to 80 mph (72 knots dropsonde on the last recon.) She's really taking a hit given that she's come off land and should be strengthening.

[HurricaneGirl]

She's looking bigger and stronger again.

[Scorpion]

ummm...

Where is the dry air?

Where is the shear?

I don't see either impacting Wilma at the moment.

Shear is visible in the clouds skidding NE on her NW flank. The higher convection on her NW flank is probably shear, which increases convection. Dry air isn't a problem now, but disorganization is. There's no clear eye. The outer wall has a huge gap in convection on the E side in satellite. The inner "wall" is still just a couple of separate thunderstorms - not a wall. She's still not at the nadir of the current reverse ERC since the outer, stronger wall is the weakening one.

Out of curiosity, why do you think she's weakening? Pressure is up from 957 to 964 and winds have fallen from 100 mph to 80 mph (72 knots dropsonde on the last recon.) She's really taking a hit given that she's come off land and should be strengthening.

Its 10 kts of shear, the same amount she has had the whole time.

[gatorcane]

where is the holy crap?

[Nancy]

Palm Beach County Press conference going on right now.....telling us they just had a call from NHC, and that a Category 2 hurricane is now predicted in Palm Beach County.

[gatorcane]

Winds at least 100mph sustained here

[skysummit]

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/3312/16hv1.jpg

[Scorpion]

Palm Beach County Press conference going on right now.....telling us they just had a call from NHC, and that a Category 2 hurricane is now predicted in Palm Beach County.

Are you sure? That would be much worse than anything we have experienced in nearly 60 years.

[gatorcane]

Scorpion it wouldn't surprise me.

If she makes landfall as a CAT 3 which she should, she'll be on the East coast of FL in a matter of just a few hours and very little weakening will occur. The everglades aren't going to weaken her at all. Flat and wet.

[KatDaddy]

Wilma is looking better. IF you watch the last 15 VIS frames you can easily see feeder band on the NW side of the eye wrap rapidly around to the SE side. Also another feeder band on the E side wraps into the N eyewall. Even the Cancun radar is now showing convection trying to wrap around the immediate center.

[gatorcane]

this is what I feared as she moves over the loop current with still favorable conditions (her more southerly track over South Florida is keeping her away from the shear and dry air)

[WxGuy1]

She is look rather disorganized right now, though she is looking a little more organized in time. Shear is beginning to increase (see http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html ) as >70kt 250mb flow begins to impinge on the nw Gulf as heights continue to fall across the central US and much of the Gulf. Inner-core convection is on the increase, but it's still far from impressive. TCHP is pretty good where the cyclone is at now, but every hour that goes by is an hour closer to the closing window for strengthening. Boca_Chris, are you backing off of your "Cat 4 easily" forecast yet?

Here's my landfall intensity probability:
Cat 5: 3%
Cat 4: 12%
Cat 3: 25%
Cat 2: 35%
Cat 1: 20%
TS: 5%

[Nancy]

Palm Beach County Press conference going on right now.....telling us they just had a call from NHC, and that a Category 2 hurricane is now predicted in Palm Beach County.

Are you sure? That would be much worse than anything we have experienced in nearly 60 years.

Yes, unfortunately. They said it twice. Now I'm second-guessing my preparations......

[jkt21787]

Cat 2 in Palm Beach County is reasonable. If it comes in at 100 to 110 mph (I'm leaning on the low end of that now) it will weaken little if any while moving across the Peninsula as it accerlerates further.

[Scorpion]

True chris, if it hits as a 3 then it could easily be a 2 here. That would give people here quite a surprise.

[gatorcane]

I'll stick with a CAT 3 but a CAT 2 in Palm Beach on the East coast of FL