MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 231859Z - 232100Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND
SRN FL. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE OVER THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. A CONFERENCE
CALL WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BEFORE 20Z TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INITIAL OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA ARE JUST
W OF THE FL KEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS ON
WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING THE WRN MOST KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS IN PROGRESS OVER SRN FL AND
BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE AIDING
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG INDICATED ON THE 18Z KEY
WEST SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE KEYS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS. VWP FROM KEY WEST SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 160 M2/S2 AND 200 M2/S2 IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER
BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEYS AND SRN FL AS WILMA CONTINUES
NEWD.
..DIAL.. 10/23/2005
ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...
24618177 27058242 27088131 25638006
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