Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#461 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:42 am

On this visible, you can see what seems to be an eye trying to form http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html The best way to see it is to put up the tropical fcst pts and look at the second from the right - right next to that is the ?soon-to-be eye (that's what Norcross is saying too).

Additionally, it appears that that feature is slightly north of the forecast points..... :eek:

Website · #462 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:44 am

Canelaw99 wrote:I thought I just heard that but was looking for confirmation - ty....sheesh - that's bad when they evac ALL of the Keys - they're not messing around.

Well with only one road out, I think it's necessary.

How bad was Georges in the Keys/Miami??? This is looking very similar.

#463 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:46 am

I know Georges was pretty bad for the Keys...I don't remember it being too bad here in Miami, but they kinda start to run together after a while. Before Katrina, the worst I remember here was Irene in '99, but it was a wet storm.

#464 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:08 am

Does anyone notice a more northerly track right now? I can't wait for the NWS MIA radar to start picking it up.

vaffie · #465 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:09 am

once we see the eye on satellite, it's going to be a lot easier to track from hour to hour. It should just be an hour or two away.

#466 Postby **drezee** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:09 am

Wonderful loop of Rita!!

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... Carribbean

Nancy · #467 Postby **Nancy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:13 am

Canelaw99 wrote:I know Georges was pretty bad for the Keys...I don't remember it being too bad here in Miami, but they kinda start to run together after a while. Before Katrina, the worst I remember here was Irene in '99, but it was a wet storm.

Regarding Georges --- I remember watching news reports showing flooding in Key West, and distinctly remember hearing that there were hundreds and hundreds of pink conch shells in the streets of Key West.

#468 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:19 am

My father lives on Big Pine. They got it bad during Georges. Not widely reported b/c the population is low, but almost every mature tree came down, lots of mobile homes destroyed, etc. Key West was mild.

Website · #469 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:20 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

WOW... remember up til yesterday evening how there was NOTHING on the south side??? She's getting bad in a hurry...

djtil · #470 Postby **djtil** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:23 am

once we see the eye on satellite, it's going to be a lot easier to track from hour to hour. It should just be an hour or two away.

an eye on satellite is very unlikely until it nears cat 2.....

#471 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:25 am

Brent wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

WOW... remember up til yesterday evening how there was NOTHING on the south side??? She's getting bad in a hurry...

Is that an upper low just west of Key West on that WV loop? Would that have any impact on the current motion direction? I am getting a little nervous about this only b/c she looks like she is forming her CDO and an eventual eye. very impressive on sat. imagery

#472 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:31 am

wow, she is blowing up right now....ok, i know some mod have shifted east...but, the key to everything is timing...the ridge is very strong and its stretched from TX-GA....rita, has also picked up some speed...witch makes me tend to believe that the track might get pushed a little south. or west...just my op...we will see how fast she moves...

ronjon · #473 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:39 am

deltadog03 wrote:wow, she is blowing up right now....ok, i know some mod have shifted east...but, the key to everything is timing...the ridge is very strong and its stretched from TX-GA....rita, has also picked up some speed...witch makes me tend to believe that the track might get pushed a little south. or west...just my op...we will see how fast she moves...

Actually a little quicker speed and stronger storm would tend to make her jog a little more poleward since there is a weakness off the east coast of FL due to a trough off the NC coast. This trough is forecast to move off the coast over the next 24 hours and be replaced by the building ridge from TX, thus shunting the storm westward.

#474 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:58 am

Dunno...that gulf high is still heading west right now.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

#475 Postby **pavelbure224** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:17 pm

am i seeing things or is the storm not moving as fast?

Flakeys · #476 Postby **Flakeys** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:30 pm

The following Islamorada bars will remain open through tonite.

Squid Row
Whistle Stop
Ocean View (The OV)

Holiday Isle and Lor-e-lei will be closed.

#477 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:39 pm

dwg71 wrote:When does the East trend stop? Its moved from TX/MEX to Mid TX coast to upper TX coast. And that's just the NHC track and they are slow to move. The models are already East of Houston.

Who knows -- but the NHC is conservative for good reason. The models, as you probably know, flip all over the darn place this far out. The next run may have all the models shift east again... or further west.

The conservativeness, too, has to do with public perception. If one day you're screaming "Houston!" and the next "New Orleans" and then the day after "Houston!" again, you mainly just get everyone stirred up and running in circles.

dwg71 · #478 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:42 pm

Lets get a direction fix 11:00AM 23.0N 75.2W...1:00PM is ?

Update will be available soon.

#479 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:47 pm

dwg71 wrote:When does the East trend stop? Its moved from TX/MEX to Mid TX coast to upper TX coast. And that's just the NHC track and they are slow to move. The models are already East of Houston.

The 12z run of the GFS is 120 miles west of the 06z run...back over to HOU/GLS from Lake Charles area. Expect the GFDl to follow suit. The ridge is intense and I thin the GFS was over estimating the trof and underestimating the ridge. This is the first major shortwave of the fall moving towards the ridge....and as people know...the models always over estimate the first few fronts/trofs...especially when you are talking of a summer time system interacting with a fall pattern.

rockyman · #480 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:49 pm

AFM...you're right...the GFDL is back to Houston:

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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