Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[artist]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

[ronibaida]

who thinks that they will upgrade winds at the 5pm advisory??

[jkt21787]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

[Stratosphere747]

Extra-tropical?

Doubt it, just a thought.

[theworld]

URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 13 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.



Interesting vortex.

Is the Bottom Quote referring to the vertical shape of the eye... as in a Cone (narrower at water - wider at altitude creating a tilt ) ?

[jkt21787]

who thinks that they will upgrade winds at the 5pm advisory??

There has been nothing thus far to support more than 100 mph. So unless they do, it won't happen.

[vaffie]

WOW, the visible looks intense indeed!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS product

In my opinion:
Just give it another 9 hours. It is only just entering the juiciest part of the loop current, increased shear to its north over the next six hours will probably actually give it an intensifying northerly outflow channel--this has already begun--which you can see by IR satellite (until the shear starts affecting it's inner core), and from 7 pm to 3 am, the convection will be getting colder due to the diurnal variation that goes on at that time and because the pressure will have dropped 15-20 mb over the next 9 hours, so though shear will become stronger in the four or five hours before landfall, it may be rapidly intensifying at the time and picking up speed--so that it might not actually weaken much if at all, and even though the pressure might increase slightly--the winds will still be catching up to the pressure while it is over Florida. So be prepared for a strong Cat 3 to weak 4 just as it's making landfall, in my opinion.

[jkt21787]

Is the Bottom Quote referring to the vertical shape of the eye... as in a Cone (narrower at water - wider at altitude creating a tilt ) ?

It likely means that the storm is being sheared right now in the upper levels.

[thermos]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

No. It is strengthening now.

[jkt21787]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

No. It is strengthening now.

A tilted storm is a sheared storm. Bottom line. Pro will have to back me up here to prove this to you.

[jkt21787]

97 kt winds reported.

[theworld]

Is the Bottom Quote referring to the vertical shape of the eye... as in a Cone (narrower at water - wider at altitude creating a tilt ) ?

It likely means that the storm is being sheared right now in the upper levels.

thanks jt.

[thermos]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

No. It is strengthening now.

A tilted storm is a sheared storm. Bottom line. Pro will have to back me up here to prove this to you.

You said you need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtening.
But this one is tilted and getting stronger and better organized.

[jkt21787]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

No. It is strengthening now.

A tilted storm is a sheared storm. Bottom line. Pro will have to back me up here to prove this to you.

You said you need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtening.
But this one is tilted and getting stronger and better organized.

Storms can still slightly strenghten in light shear environments, but no rapid intensification will occur. Shear will only be increasing though.

I should have been more clear in my earlier statement. I apologize.

[ronibaida]

how is it being sheared when pressure is dropping. It has dropped 2mb in the last hour...??

[jkt21787]

how is it being sheared when pressure is dropping. It has dropped 2mb in the last hour...??

Read my above post.

[thermos]

anyone know what that tilt could represent?

Storms that tilt are usually sheared storms. You need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtneing.

No. It is strengthening now.

A tilted storm is a sheared storm. Bottom line. Pro will have to back me up here to prove this to you.

You said you need a perfectly stacked system to induce strenghtening.
But this one is tilted and getting stronger and better organized.

Storms can still slightly strenghten in light shear environments, but no rapid intensification will occur. Shear will only be increasing though.

I should have been more clear in my earlier statement. I apologize.

Steve agrees with you that rapid intensification is unlikely. But it may not weaken since it is picking up so much speed.

Steve being this guy -> http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[jkt21787]

Steve agrees with you that rapid intensification is unlikely. But it may not weaken since it is picking up so much speed.

Steve being this guy -> http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

That is very reasonable.

[jkt21787]

We've got a NOAA plane in there now flying through the eye in addition to the AF3. We'll getting multiple vortex messages and wind reports.

[jkt21787]

THIS IS FROM THE PREVIOUS VORTEX, NOT A NEW ONE!!!

SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.

Look at the bolded area, there is a 8nm tilt between the center of the storm at the surface versus the center at FL (700 mb). Thats quite the tilt...