Hurricane Katrina

[senorpepr]

I'm checking out for the night. I've added more NOAA observation sites into the S2K recon page so you can reach recon nirvana. http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

Also, feel free to check out buoys at http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/buoy.htm while you're waiting for more recon!

[tronbunny]

LOL @ the A98E.

I see the A98E hasn't been able to kick the crack habit, this year, either!

[cycloneye]

WTNT52 KNHC 261150
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
81.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
50 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES
FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[storms in NC]

looks as if she is still going a bit south of west here.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml

[Ivanhater]

LOL @ the A98E.

I see the A98E hasn't been able to kick the crack habit, this year, either!

haaaaaaaa

[Galvestongirl]

o.k...it states that it will move more northerly as the midlevel ridge moves. If this ridge does not move and no weakness is there will it still go north?

[dwg71]

o.k...it states that it will move more northerly as the midlevel ridge moves. If this ridge does not move and no weakness is there will it still go north?

the high pressure is retrograding sw, and there is a weakness. Models are as tightly clustered as they have been with Kat. dont expect muc deviation from her forecast path. NHC hasnt wavered in three days. South tip fl, GOM, then panhandle. Just slight variances of that.

[Galvestongirl]

o.k...it states that it will move more northerly as the midlevel ridge moves. If this ridge does not move and no weakness is there will it still go north?

the high pressure is retrograding sw, and there is a weakness. Models are as tightly clustered as they have been with Kat. dont expect muc deviation from her forecast path. NHC hasnt wavered in three days. South tip fl, GOM, then panhandle. Just slight variances of that.

that much I understand, however, I was asking that because I am under the impression that the more stronger a cane the more poleward it will go...so, if it did not create a weakness, would it still go north?....oh and I forgot to add......does that mean all this nasty humidity will finally go away...wheew it was awful last night when I was walking the dogs.

[WindRunner]

WHXX01 KWBC 261223
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 1200 050827 0000 050827 1200 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 81.9W 25.1N 83.0W 25.0N 84.1W 25.2N 85.3W
BAMM 25.2N 81.9W 25.5N 83.0W 25.8N 84.2W 26.1N 85.5W
A98E 25.2N 81.9W 25.2N 82.8W 25.2N 83.4W 26.1N 84.0W
LBAR 25.2N 81.9W 25.0N 83.1W 25.1N 84.6W 25.3N 86.2W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 1200 050829 1200 050830 1200 050831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 86.5W 28.5N 88.1W 34.0N 84.8W 40.0N 74.9W
BAMM 26.6N 86.8W 28.6N 88.7W 33.1N 85.6W 38.0N 76.1W
A98E 27.0N 84.5W 30.4N 84.7W 36.2N 81.7W 43.4N 73.8W
LBAR 25.8N 87.8W 28.1N 90.1W 31.7N 89.2W 35.2N 84.3W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 92KTS 80KTS
DSHP 80KTS 91KTS 38KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.9N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 30NM

[Ivanhater]

shifted west didnt they?

[tampastorm]

To me it looks like she is just spinning in place, interesting.

[Myersgirl]

Sure would like to see this keep going west faster

[rockyman]

The 12z tropical suite still has the system moving at 255 (south of west)...also, the system has lost another .1 degree latitude.

The system is initialized at 65 knots...so no strengthening yet...and SHIPS intensity forecast is about the same.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 1200 050827 0000 050827 1200 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 81.9W 25.1N 83.0W 25.0N 84.1W 25.2N 85.3W
BAMM 25.2N 81.9W 25.5N 83.0W 25.8N 84.2W 26.1N 85.5W
A98E 25.2N 81.9W 25.2N 82.8W 25.2N 83.4W 26.1N 84.0W
LBAR 25.2N 81.9W 25.0N 83.1W 25.1N 84.6W 25.3N 86.2W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 69KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 1200 050829 1200 050830 1200 050831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 86.5W 28.5N 88.1W 34.0N 84.8W 40.0N 74.9W
BAMM 26.6N 86.8W 28.6N 88.7W 33.1N 85.6W 38.0N 76.1W
A98E 27.0N 84.5W 30.4N 84.7W 36.2N 81.7W 43.4N 73.8W
LBAR 25.8N 87.8W 28.1N 90.1W 31.7N 89.2W 35.2N 84.3W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 92KTS 80KTS
DSHP 80KTS 91KTS 38KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.9N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 30NM

[cycloneye]

261257
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOODING STILL A THREAT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

INFORMATION FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA LATER
THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH
WAS REPORTED AT MARATHON AND A GUST TO 46 MPH WAS REPORTED AT
THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA LATER
THIS MORNING.

The above from the 9 AM advisorie.Now let's wait and see at what time plane will depart base.

[Dave C]

Long range doppler from Tampa shows convection forming a northern eyewall feature.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... ktbw.shtml
The radar from Key West can't really see it because it's having to penetrate the strong band south of the center.

[cjrciadt]

Wow 70 was the lowest it weaken all night.

[superfly]

She has been moving due south per the Key West radar.

[Amanzi]

Luis, I just wanted to say thanks so much for keeping these advisory's up to date and all the topics on track!!! Keep up the hard work...