Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Normandy]

Well Gilbert is the case in point example against his argument (Even though it did technically weaken before landfalling).

[Thunder44]

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.

Jeanne did not weaken before it made landfall on Florida's east coast. It actually intensified a bit as it approached the coast with 120 mph winds.

And I don't believe those others had exactly had the same fate either. I'll be check more of the TPC advisory archives, which you obviously have not.

[swimaster20]

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.

You can't forget, however, that some of those storms were "the big one" for those poor people that lost their homes and/or businesses. To them, it was devestating.

[Air Force Met]

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.

The problem with this analogy is meteorology. The fact these storms weakened is a statistical coincidence...not some meteorological fact because of something they share in common (major and hitting land...other than islands).

Applying statistical coincidence to every storm is meteorological junk. It doesn't work. Saying Emily will weaken because of what storm X did 3 years ago is not meteorology...but ignorant guessing (to be blunt). Emily is not a conscious entity...knowing she should weaken because the trend is this or that. Emily will react to the laws of nature and her environment. If THOSE dictate she should weaken...she will weaken. IF not...she will strengthen.

Given the upper low to her west...I think it is likely she will stay the same or weaken slightly...not because that seems to be the "Consensus" for recent land-falling (not islands mind you) major hurricanes which have been major for the last few days...but because she (and only she...not Dennis...or Floyd...or Georges...) has to play the hand she has been dealt METEOROLOGICALLY.

To suggest otherwise is NOT based on science.

[mf_dolphin]

Amen Air Force Met

[cycloneye]

I second the Amen!!.

[swimaster20]

I second the Amen!!.

I third it!!!!

[Lowpressure]

The only reason most of the named storms weakened before landfall is recurve, had Floyd, Bertha and so on hit Florida directly, it would have been full on. In fact Floyd would have still been talked about as being a huge disaster. I lived in Jacksonville then and it was huge and powerful. The scale and strength would have been historical. Thank you recurve.

[thetraveler]

This info is from a buoy located at appx 19.87 N 85.06 W and the info was recorded at 1650 central time
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 58.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 32.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.44 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.26 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.6 °F

[rockyman]

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.

Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, and Georges--all duds, huh? They happen to comprise 4 of the 10 costliest hurricanes in US history, with a combined 34 billion dollars in damage (not to mention the 3000 people who died during Jeanne). Maybe we should find new words to described these horrific events. Whadaya say?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/damage.asp

By the way, Ivan was NOT forecast to be the "big one"...it was predicted to weaken back to a Cat 3 for days before landfall...Just because storms strengthen to Cat 5 at some point during their lives doesn't mean that they are forecast to be the "big one."

[dougjp]

"Wave Height (WVHT): 32.2 ft "

[rainstorm]

i dont think dollar figures mean much as far as damage goes. donna today would do alot more damage than donna in 1960.

[gkrangers]

Going to be hard to have an accurate intensity unless they sample the NE quad before they issue the advisory...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...HURRICANE EMILY BEARING DOWN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 440
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY
MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF EMILY
CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Scorpion]

I think they will keep it at 135 mph just to keep people alert. EDIT: Nice I thought correctly.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...HURRICANE EMILY BEARING DOWN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 440
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY
MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF EMILY
CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Swimdude]

Good. It's weakening into the Yucatan. That's excellent news!

[gkrangers]

Good. It's weakening into the Yucatan. That's excellent news!

Not really. It already weakened. Eye is beginning to warm on infrared and it should stay steady, if not strengthen and organize a bit before landfall.

[calidoug]

Good. It's weakening into the Yucatan. That's excellent news!

No, it weakened earlier, and is now getting its act back together. It should be strengthening into landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it bombs as it is going in...That is when you get your Andrews...Reason is when they are bombing at landfall the winds from the upper levels are moving to the surface. But if they are weaking most of the winds stay off the surface.