Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

hicksta · #621 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:41 pm

True, But

When they are very close togther like so, Its a fairly good chance we MIGHT get this storm.

#622 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:42 pm

hicksta wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

1. Believe me, it has nothing to do where I live. A landfall just east of the Texas line is WELL west of me.

2. You think I care where J.B. has it going?

3. The models will continue to shift for the next 6 days.

Sorry to burst your bubble. But i do recall Joe saying Fl watch out for some activity this week. BOOM there she is. He has done very well with storms this year.

No bubbles bursted here. So his magic hat worked this time.

hicksta · #623 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:42 pm

Rainband wrote:This is my point

I see your point. But there always have to be a first.

jkt21787 · #624 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:43 pm

Rainband wrote:This is my point

This is the time when we bring up that quote from NHC earlier this year about this year caring nothing about climo, and its quite true.

MANY of our systems this year have not gone with the clmo norm. Not that I don't pay attention to it, but these situations are where VERY CLOSE attention must be paid to the current atmospheric pattern setup and how the models are indicating it.

And the pattern in place, as well as the models, says this one breaks climo.

Stratosphere747 · #625 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:44 pm

I agree JKT...

This is the first storm since Claudette that has me truly worried..

I live in Angleton along with AFM and have business interests in Freeport and Surfside *which is the dead-center of the current track*

I still think the track may have subtle changes, be it north or south.

Rainband · #626 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:44 pm

hicksta wrote:True, But

When they are very close togther like so, Its a fairly good chance we MIGHT get this storm.

Like I said and others. Look for the models to shift. Unfortunately history doesn't lie. This could be a first but it may not be either. Bottom line. Anyone in the GOM should be watching. Ophelia proved why we shouldn't rely on model tracks early out. :wink:

hicksta · #627 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:45 pm

Your map of showing the Hits for this month. There are NO cold fronts to sweep it up

#628 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:45 pm

Yea...what did the GFDL do today? Shifted by 250 miles or so? I'm sure it's not at its final point. Hell, it may even continue to shift south.

mahmoo · #629 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:47 pm

Hicksta......i don't mean to be nosy but, i'm curious if you have been through a hurricane before?

hicksta · #630 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:47 pm

True, anything can happen. But when the models close like they are the joe b and the NHC agree for once. It makes you think they might have this one on the lockdown. Guess its to the waiting game

hicksta · #631 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:48 pm

mahmoo wrote:Hicksta......i don't mean to be nosy but, i'm curious if you have been through a hurricane before?

Yes, and do not plan to stay past wensday if it stays like it is right now.

jkt21787 · #632 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:48 pm

hicksta wrote:Your map of showing the Hits for this month. There are NO cold fronts to sweep it up

I have to agree. There is no current projection of a MAJOR AND MEGA cold front/trough moving in and sweeping south enough to recurve this east of AL/MS. Just don't see it.

You can't just look at climo and say thats where its going. You have to interpret what the atmospheric conditions are and how the pattern will set up to steer this storm. If you do that, you see the chances of working with climo and moving east of AL/MS border is very, very small.

We are not in a climo pattern. Normally by now I've seen many cold fronts sweep through here. Yet today its 96 degrees here in Memphis, an indication of the strong ridge, which is not the climo norm.

hicksta · #633 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:49 pm

Also to note Galveston has VOLUNTARY evacuations starting tommrow.

mahmoo · #634 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:54 pm

hicksta wrote:
mahmoo wrote:Hicksta......i don't mean to be nosy but, i'm curious if you have been through a hurricane before?

Yes, and do not plan to stay past wensday if it stays like it is right now.

I'm very glad to hear that (that you plan to leave).

mahmoo · #635 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:56 pm

Hicksta, does Kemah have more than one route out?

Rainband · #636 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:04 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
hicksta wrote:Your map of showing the Hits for this month. There are NO cold fronts to sweep it up

I have to agree. There is no current projection of a MAJOR AND MEGA cold front/trough moving in and sweeping south enough to recurve this east of AL/MS. Just don't see it.

You can't just look at climo and say thats where its going. You have to interpret what the atmospheric conditions are and how the pattern will set up to steer this storm. If you do that, you see the chances of working with climo and moving east of AL/MS border is very, very small.

We are not in a climo pattern. Normally by now I've seen many cold fronts sweep through here. Yet today its 96 degrees here in Memphis, an indication of the strong ridge, which is not the climo norm.

I guess my point is ,we are six days out and things change fast when it comes to weather. I am trying to explain that everyone needs to watch, I guess so others don't let their guard down. TRUST me the last thing I want is any area in the US to get another major storm.

#637 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:09 pm

look folks, katrinas path changed big time when it was in the gulf, this is still 36 hours away from even being in the gulf and the track is very uncertain....rainband is correct, models will continue to shift and they will not stay in the same place for long

#638 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:10 pm

When is the next run anyway? ...and which model is it?

dwg71 · #639 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:11 pm

I wish they would do away with 5 day forecasts. The 72 hour cone is a lot more reliable.

I think its going south of points and as long as ridge is over SE texas Rita will go elsewhere.

Its hotter than fire, HP dome is supposed to lift off nne, well its moved a little west first. That should allow for a more southerly course. IMO

jkt21787 · #640 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:12 pm

Rainband wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
hicksta wrote:Your map of showing the Hits for this month. There are NO cold fronts to sweep it up

I have to agree. There is no current projection of a MAJOR AND MEGA cold front/trough moving in and sweeping south enough to recurve this east of AL/MS. Just don't see it.

You can't just look at climo and say thats where its going. You have to interpret what the atmospheric conditions are and how the pattern will set up to steer this storm. If you do that, you see the chances of working with climo and moving east of AL/MS border is very, very small.

We are not in a climo pattern. Normally by now I've seen many cold fronts sweep through here. Yet today its 96 degrees here in Memphis, an indication of the strong ridge, which is not the climo norm.
I guess my point is ,we are six days out and things change fast when it comes to weather. I am trying to explain that everyone needs to watch, I guess so others don't let their guard down. TRUST me the last thing I want is any area in the US to get another major storm.

I understand your concern and I certainly hope you and all others along the coast do continue to watch it. Things do change fast, and although it seems very small now, the chance is not zero.

As far as I'm concerned, even if the chance is very small, if its not zero, then at least keep one eye on it.

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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