Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Bellarose]

I'm sorry...not -removed- (just trying to prepare) but does this not show a big Tampa influence? I've been trying to sort through all the info the last couple of days, and I've gotta say, nothing has confused me like this in a long time.

[Downdraft]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

[krysof]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

The gfdl shows potentially a catastropic scenario for the northeast as it expects wilma to phase in.

[wxmann_91]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

Well, the most recent run of GFDL is on crack. It shows a 115 kt Cat 4 extratropical storm racing past Cape Cod.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

GFDL also had Katrina nailed once it got into the GOM

[linkerweather]

a more westerly track means amore southerly landfall, possibly a miss to the south
the reason is is that it will start the NE turn farther south that it otherwise would

Derek,
I partially agree with this. Keep in mind if it makes it to the western edge of the Yucatan channel FASTER then forecast, then it will likely make it a bit farther north in the Gulf prior to its turn. Again, this is the big question mark......where will she be and the time of greatest influence from the mid latitude westerlies?

[WindRunner]

here is the new gfdl
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WOW! That's some crazy intensification right before landfall. Frame before landfall has it at 943 and 110kts, and next frame has it almost off the FL east coast, but at 945/121kts! Charley really is starting to set some bells off here.

And it blows it up again to 125kts off the coast of SC afterwards, and shows it peaking at 923/129kts in 24hrs.

A very interesting run, IMO.

[floridahurricaneguy]

When will Tampa have a better handle? When would we know to evacuate? We are in zone B. Deffinitely worried more Tampa threat. GFDL seems one to watch. I think it will shift slightly north. Ok not that anyone cares but our dog is acting really weird and upset. Pacing and Pacing. They say animals can predict future disasters. You never know.

Matt

[dhweather]

Timing is everything - as always. The arc and the radius have yet to be defined.

[WindRunner]

New Dvorak support 102kts.

18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5 WILMA

[sweetpea]

OK everyone, please bear with me on this, I have been reading all these posts and I have been trying to understand. The more west she goes now she will probably skirt the tip of Florida. BUT if she speeds up the westerlies will pick her up later and she will come into Florida further north? Please feel free to correct me I am just trying to get it straight. Thanks for any input.

Debbie

[THead]

a more westerly track means amore southerly landfall, possibly a miss to the south
the reason is is that it will start the NE turn farther south that it otherwise would

Derek,
I partially agree with this. Keep in mind if it makes it to the western edge of the Yucatan channel FASTER then forecast, then it will likely make it a bit farther north in the Gulf prior to its turn. Again, this is the big question mark......where will she be and the time of greatest influence from the mid latitude westerlies?

Doesn't alot of where she goes, depend on the orientation of the trough. Meaning, if the boundary of it is SW to NE, Wilma will go due NE. If the boundary is more SW to ENE, she will go ENE. I'm not describing this well, but I know what I mean. What I'm trying to say is it won't matter so much where it gets picked up, if its a little west of the forecast points, its still going to follow the frontal boundary and make a beeline to wherever the boundary intersects the Fla. coast.

[jkt21787]

OK everyone, please bear with me on this, I have been reading all these posts and I have been trying to understand. The more west she goes now she will probably skirt the tip of Florida. BUT if she speeds up the westerlies will pick her up later and she will come into Florida further north? Please feel free to correct me I am just trying to get it straight. Thanks for any input.

Debbie

GENERALLY, not necessarily how things will follow, the slower this moves or the further west this moves, the better the chance that the storm will be picked up sooner and thus turn right earlier, more south in Florida.

The faster or more northward component she can acheive, the better chances are for a more northern hit, as the trough doesn't reach her until she is further north to begin with.

If I had to make a educated guess, the first scenario seems more likely at this time, though the second is certainly possible, FWIW, NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, I am going with a Fort Myers landfall at this time. I have seen NOTHING in the models nor the synoptic pattern significant enough YET to call for a more northern landfall location, nor have I seen anything to lean to a far southern FL/Keys landfall or a FL miss. This is of course all subject to change.

[johngaltfla]

a more westerly track means amore southerly landfall, possibly a miss to the south
the reason is is that it will start the NE turn farther south that it otherwise would

Derek, sorry I'm so late in responding/asking; but doesn't a more NW track mean a further north impact on Florida?

I would think that these things are not known for sharp, sharp U-turns....

[jujubean]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

GFDL also had Katrina nailed once it got into the GOM

I may be mistaken here but, wasn't the GFDL model the only model that forcasted the southern dip when katrina was over florida?

[dhweather]

OK everyone, please bear with me on this, I have been reading all these posts and I have been trying to understand. The more west she goes now she will probably skirt the tip of Florida. BUT if she speeds up the westerlies will pick her up later and she will come into Florida further north? Please feel free to correct me I am just trying to get it straight. Thanks for any input.

Debbie

That's just tough to call right now.

The trof that will pick Wilma up will play a role in this as well. It's all in the
timing. By Thursday morning, we should have a much better idea.

[THead]

I read NEXRAD's analysis in the tropical analysis posts. He's going with the GFDL also and for the reasons he lists so am I. I'm thinking for once the GFDL has the storm pegged. I hope I'm wrong but that model seems to have the best grip on the overall U.S. synoptic pattern so it makes sense it reads that into the storms path better. I say farther north. How much further is a good question right now.

GFDL also had Katrina nailed once it got into the GOM

I may be mistaken here but, wasn't the GFDL model the only model that forcasted the southern dip when katrina was over florida?

Believe so, and it also intensified it to what many thought at the time was unrealistic, and it ended up getting even stronger. Every situation is different though, no telling which model is right on Wilma yet.

[sweetpea]

Thanks for the replies dh and jk. Sooner or later I will get the hang of this.


Debbie

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at this...This storm is going to look more impressive then Katrina or Rita....Look at those cloud tops wow wow wow!!! You did not see this with those storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[sponger]

Tomorow evening we should have a good handle on the area of greatest risk.
I think everything is in play but sw Fl landfall looks likely.