Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[superfly]

The image auto updates and is showing moisture though.

Look at the time, it is still showing the picture before the blackout.

[oneness]

It says 6:45 UTC on my screen.

[superfly]

It says 6:45 UTC on my screen.

Uhhh are you seeing things?

[oneness]

That isn't the image I see. Hit refresh.

[superfly]

That isn't the image I see. Hit refresh.

Of course not because it updated now. When you posted it, it was the old image. The new image clearly shows dry air intrusion.

[audioslave8]

is it a minimal hurricane yet !!! or does she have to some more time to go im thinking by early morning or say latest 11:00 a.m. update

[JamesFromMaine2]

I see no dry air here and on radar out of miami theres a clear eye developing! and it is still moving west northwest!

[oneness]

I think he's referring to the white splotches to the SW of the core near and over land Cuba.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think theres enough to do anything! Pressure was at 991 last vortex and now from the newest its down to 988 so its still developing! a little dry air isn't going to be enough to effect it!

[oneness]

I don't think theres enough to do anything! Pressure was at 991 last vortex and now from the newest its down to 988 so its still developing! a little dry air isn't going to be enough to effect it!

I agree 100% James, I don't see any dry air at all in the storm itself. (I think the nearness of Cuba may be putting a damper on inflow from the south though) I don't think dry air has anything to do with it.

[audioslave8]

notice in this picture there is a small tight eye looks 10 miles or less diameter and then there is another eyewall that is around that one tha looks to be a higher elevation usually that is a start to a replacement cycle right??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR2/20.jpg[/url]

[audioslave8]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR2/20.jpg

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think so! I don't think ERCs start until they reach cat 3! I could be wrong on that but I don't think so! The eye has just been developing all night and has just now really started to get going!

[superfly]

notice in this picture there is a small tight eye looks 10 miles or less diameter and then there is another eyewall that is around that one tha looks to be a higher elevation usually that is a start to a replacement cycle right???

There is no eye and thus no eyewall to replace...

[oneness]

The banding around the eye is finally beginning to look more developed.

As for ERC, I'd say the clear closed eye is only now becoming defined so why would an ERC be occuring to an eye that has only recently formed?

[Anonymous]

988 mb

[audioslave8]

true!!! so we are now starting to see the formation of ritas eye finally it seemed earlier in the day it was already close to forming on satellite photos looked real defined for just a little while then it closed off so u think she will be a hurricane in the next 5:00 a.m. advisory???

[Thunder44]

at 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all warnings for the central Bahamas...and downgraded the Hurricane
Warning for Andros Island to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...
including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys...and from Golden Beach on the Florida southeast coast
southward to East Cape Sable...then northward to Chokoloskee on the
southwest coast.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Villa Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...and la Habana.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
Deerfield Beach Florida southward to north of Golden Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida East
Coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet...as
well as for Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...Cienfuegos...and Pinar del
Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the
remainder of the central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 23.7n 79.5w at 20/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 988 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 45ne 45se 20sw 45nw.
34 kt.......105ne 60se 60sw 105nw.
12 ft seas..140ne 90se 90sw 105nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 23.7n 79.5w at 20/0900z
at 20/0600z center was located near 23.6n 78.8w

forecast valid 20/1800z 24.1n 81.7w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 20se 0sw 30nw.
50 kt... 45ne 45se 20sw 45nw.
34 kt...105ne 60se 60sw 105nw.

Forecast valid 21/0600z 24.4n 84.4w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 75se 75sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 21/1800z 24.6n 87.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 35ne 20se 20sw 35nw.
50 kt... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.
34 kt...140ne 90se 90sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 22/0600z 24.7n 89.3w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 23/0600z 25.5n 93.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 60se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 24/0600z 28.5n 96.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 25/0600z 32.5n 97.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

[dwg71]

Further West and South...

[audioslave8]

shes dropped to 988mb but recon says she has not strengthened in last couple of hours ooookay says she will be hurricane later today