Hurricane Katrina

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it has the winds theres no reason. In yes they should know how organixzed the LLC is with that thousand dollar or more recond flying around in there. So that should not be a problem. I'm not falling for it.

[senorpepr]

721
WTNT42 KNHC 240857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW
THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR
AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND
NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS...
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A
RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN
24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE
SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT
PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.
THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT
EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT


$$

[senorpepr]

They actually make a good reason for not upgrading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So what??? They upgraded Arlene from having a small area of 40 mph winds far to the northeast of the LLC. What doe's that matter. In yes it still holds water my friend.

[Thunder44]

They actually make a good reason for not upgrading.

I agree though it may not be long before those winds make it to the surface anyway.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok if it takes 60 mph flight level winds for the upgrade. This storm will do it so enough. They are the experts.

[Deenac813]

I am thinking Cat 1 by landfall. What does everyone else think?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system is developing a cdo with banding. Its central core has become very well defined. I say cat1 maybe upwards to cat2 landfall.

[Deenac813]

The system is developing a cdo with banding. Its central core has become very well defined. I say cat1 maybe upwards to cat2 landfall.

I do have to say that the system does look much better than it did when I went to bed last night.

[EDR1222]

Anxiously awaiting the first visible shots this morning.

[Javlin]

I think until the ULL moves out no real deep intensification will occur.She should sling shot right over the top of that ULL.That being said a CAT 1 or 2?I think that could be tough.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS JUST
BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

They it keep saying it "nearing tropical storm strength" but they don't increase in winds since yesterday. 35 mph is near TS strength too.

[Dean4Storms]

No great pressure falls, no obs. in the Bahamas of a TS, not even a gust and still most of the convection on the eastern periphery. Looks to me that the ULL has the storm tilted.

Not looking like any great deepening threat for now, might see a 50mph Tropical Storm by landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Every piece of data shows it as a tropical storm with a 2.5 t. Then finding 45 knot winds=50 mph flight level. Which I don't even think tropcial storm Bret had winds this strong more like 40 knots/45 mph. But lets see if the flight level winds area around 55 knots over the eastern quad.

[Derecho]

With an aircraft in the storm NHC really could care less what the T number is.

Also, sheared storms don't mix flight level winds down to the surface as well as a well-organized storm.

[NastyCat4]

This is an independent observation and NOT official--for information, please consult the NHC for expert advice:


Didn't deserve an upgrade yet--a good call by NHC. Fact that there are no reports of winds more than 20 mph at ground level anywhere in the Bahamas show that the ULL has NOT transferred much energy yet to lower levels--showing disorganization, despite the better appearance. Flight level winds can be misleading.

Given the proximity fo Florida, and the current lack of intensity, barring a sudden burst of heat energy, this will not be a powerful storm on first landfall---probably 50 knots--60 tops. A first landfall as a Cat 1 is very unlikely--probably only about 10-20%. This is a guess by a non-meteorologist.

Unfortunately, given the 88-90 degree F. SSTS in the Gulf, a second landfall will be much stronger, probably in the 90-100 knot vicinity, unless the storm loses structure overland, and cannot intensify (very unlikely, as there is a large expanse of heat energy in the Gulf).

I'd still expect a first landfall from the Florida Strait to Lauderdale, with the Broward area most likely. Second landfall is totally up for grabs--favoring the area from MS. to Louisiana.

[Dean4Storms]

Problem here is that no obs have come in at the surface supporting that these winds are at the surface. I'd rather them be sure that these winds are making it to the surface than to upgrade something that won't even lift a ladies dress!

With all the Bahama islands and ships in that area, someone will report a supporting TS force wind and it will be upgraded, until then there is nothing supporting the flight level winds down to the surface.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not trust one or two surface obs ever to tell me the true power of the storm. Thats what the recon is doing. We got a 48 knot wind just found...In yes the system is getting better organized.

[HURAKAN]

Problem here is that no obs have come in at the surface supporting that these winds are at the surface. I'd rather them be sure that these winds are making it to the surface than to upgrade something that won't even lift a ladies dress!

With all the Bahama islands and ships in that area, someone will report a supporting TS force wind and it will be upgraded, until then there is nothing supporting the flight level winds down to the surface.

Then, don't send the RECON, and wait for someone in the Bahamas or in a ship to report tropical storm winds.