T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

27/2345 UTC 11.9N 81.4W T3.5/3.5 BETA


Almost a hurricane according to SSD dvorak sat estimates.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051028 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051028 0000 051028 1200 051029 0000 051029 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 81.5W 12.7N 82.5W 13.1N 83.6W 13.1N 84.8W
BAMM 12.0N 81.5W 12.5N 82.1W 12.9N 82.8W 12.9N 83.7W
A98E 12.0N 81.5W 12.6N 81.8W 13.2N 82.6W 13.9N 83.6W
LBAR 12.0N 81.5W 12.9N 82.2W 14.3N 83.2W 15.8N 84.4W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS 80KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000 051102 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 86.2W 10.9N 90.3W 9.4N 95.8W 8.8N 102.0W
BAMM 12.6N 84.9W 11.4N 88.3W 10.4N 92.7W 9.8N 97.8W
A98E 15.0N 84.7W 17.9N 86.3W 20.2N 86.9W 22.4N 85.1W
LBAR 17.5N 85.7W 21.1N 86.7W 27.1N 85.3W 33.3N 73.5W
SHIP 85KTS 90KTS 86KTS 74KTS
DSHP 85KTS 64KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 25NM


00:00z Models.Still crawling northward but getting stronger now at 55kts.

[WindRunner]

That's showing the weight of the Dvorak estimates there . . . those numbers are straight off of the chart.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z Model Graphic.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting 0000Z model runs. I wonder what the UKMET is seeing....

[MalakianOne]

Mexico one more time!

The possibilities of a path out of centroamerica are beginin' to grow w/ the time.

[hicksta]

Could SW Flordia get another =/

[MalakianOne]

Yeah... One more! We will see this tomorrow an then we'll have a better idea about the future of Beta...

[johngaltfla]

Could SW Flordia get another =/

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh..It might hear you...

[wxmann_91]

Could SW Flordia get another =/

Probably not. Chances are this thing goes into Central America or the trough carries this thing toward the Greater Antilles and then afterwards the Bahamas and then out to sea. If there is any risk it would probably be extreme southeast Florida, the Miami and Keys area, and even then it would be most likely a graze.

But there's crow waiting for me...definately would keep watch of it in Florida.

[Category6]

LBAR is obsessed with Tampa. Same forecast it had with Wilma

[tampaflwx]

LBAR is obsessed with Tampa. Same forecast it had with Wilma

Perhaps historical patterns are trying to tell us something?

[johngaltfla]

LBAR is obsessed with Tampa. Same forecast it had with Wilma

Perhaps historical patterns are trying to tell us something?

Let's hope that these storms have short memories only....

[thunderchief]

LBAR is obsessed with Tampa. Same forecast it had with Wilma

Perhaps historical patterns are trying to tell us something?

ya, they are telling you to throw the LBAR out the window.

[WxGuy1]

Already looking like a cane.. what's up with these rapidly intensifying storms here lately?

This shows again that we don't understand very well the process of rapid intensification. NHC discussions mentioned it this morning, and some Storm2k members have been calling for it. Despite this, strengthening has been rather marginal/meager today, and she remains a tropical storm. Conditions appear favorable for more rapid deepening, but that hasn't taken place yet. There's a lot that goes on during such a process, and the relative lack of data doesn't help any either. People get upset when the NHC doesn't specifically forecast rapid strengthening when it does occur (some folks got very upset with wilma/rita, questioning why the NHC didn't officially forecast the rapid strengthening), but there's a reason -- we just don't know a lot about it. Again, I'm certainly not saying there won't be some rapid intensification soon, but I am saying that one should be cautious when forecasting such an event.

[El Nino]

Not a rapid intensificationunderway. Maybe tomorrow ...

[fasterdisaster]

Remember...storms can suddenly start rapid intensification with no climax at all, like in Wilma.

[El Nino]

Shhhhhttt just don't wake up them

[wxmann_91]

Already looking like a cane.. what's up with these rapidly intensifying storms here lately?

This shows again that we don't understand very well the process of rapid intensification. NHC discussions mentioned it this morning, and some Storm2k members have been calling for it. Despite this, strengthening has been rather marginal/meager today, and she remains a tropical storm. Conditions appear favorable for more rapid deepening, but that hasn't taken place yet. There's a lot that goes on during such a process, and the relative lack of data doesn't help any either. People get upset when the NHC doesn't specifically forecast rapid strengthening when it does occur (some folks got very upset with wilma/rita, questioning why the NHC didn't officially forecast the rapid strengthening), but there's a reason -- we just don't know a lot about it. Again, I'm certainly not saying there won't be some rapid intensification soon, but I am saying that one should be cautious when forecasting such an event.

The anticyclone sitting over Beta earlier today has moved eastward, causing some unexpected weak easterly shear, inhibiting development at least for now. But as we all know weak easterly shear does little to stop strengthening, only delays the inevitable.

[fasterdisaster]

Some really cold convection in the southern banding, it could BOOM when the band wraps around