Hurricane Katrina

[Ixolib]

Two VERY important statements we have to watch out for:

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DAYUM!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I guest the cyclones mad at us for not writing Advisories on it for days. When he/she/it was fighting for its life. Boy who would of thought a system that is fighting for its life can do this.

[dhweather]

Luis - the monday dot IS OVER MY HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!!

...and ridiculously close to mine!! But... A lot can change in three days. Whatcha thinking, David?

Wonder if LindaLoo is gonna sticky the "Severe Weather Check-in" thread??

I can't argue much with the track. If I were to do a GUTS, it would be very similar to the NHC track, based upon my "take" of things right now.
It still may go a little more west.

As the case always is, timing is everything, so when the northertly movement starts is key.

[senorpepr]

I plan on providing full flight following this overnight on Mission XII. Take off should be taking place right now.

Decoding will be limited, however, between now and 12:15am EDT. In addition, I won't have the flight graphics available until around 12:15am EDT.


BTW, raw observations can be received from http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[JamesFromMaine2]

ok so the latest mission has been rescheduled so when is it leaving?

[mtm4319]

As Katrina begins to leave the range of Key West radar, another dive to the SW, with the eye now near 24.5 N:



The red dot was a previous fix of the center, and the white line is the NHC forecast path.

[senorpepr]

ok so the latest mission has been rescheduled so when is it leaving?

Where did you hear it was rescheduled??

[JamesFromMaine2]

ok so the latest mission has been rescheduled so when is it leaving?

Where did you hear it was rescheduled??

on your map it says "mission rescheduled"

[HouTXmetro]

The High Continues to push Trina WSW.... If this continues

[senorpepr]

ok so the latest mission has been rescheduled so when is it leaving?

Where did you hear it was rescheduled??

on your map it says "mission rescheduled"

Your computer is caching an old image from last night (Mission X). Hit refresh. A blank image should appear.

[Stratosphere747]

MTM, This latest movement did seem to be a dive to the south, much more than what I've seen in the last 4/5 hours.

Of course it may be the typical wobble that we all track. In the back of my mind though is how the inital models of this system had this WSW motion.

[JamesFromMaine2]

lol ok thanks for clearing that up for me! the last thing we need right now is to have no recon out there!

[SouthFloridawx]

which one is the wind speed?

[HurryKane]

Hell. The current track is not only right on my house at 72 hours, but it's on my parent's house (evac destination inland) halfway etween 72 and 96 hours.

[senorpepr]

which one is the wind speed?

Here's a manual on decoding MINOBS: http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/00/pdf/r-app-g.00.pdf

Furthermore...
2132 2837N 08712W 07316 0484 050 018 165 311 018 07891 0000000000

...the numbers in the "red" column are the wind directions.
...the numbers in the "blue" column are the wind speed, in knots.
...the numbers in the "green" column are the maximum wind speed, in knots.

[SouthFloridawx]

which one is the wind speed?

Here's a manual on decoding MINOBS: http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/00/pdf/r-app-g.00.pdf

Furthermore...
2132 2837N 08712W 07316 0484 050 018 165 311 018 07891 0000000000

...the numbers in the "red" column are the wind directions.
...the numbers in the "blue" column are the wind speed, in knots.
...the numbers in the "green" column are the maximum wind speed, in knots.

Thanks....

[HouTXmetro]

MTM, This latest movement did seem to be a dive to the south, much more than what I've seen in the last 4/5 hours.

Of course it may be the typical wobble that we all track. In the back of my mind though is how the inital models of this system had this WSW motion.

You are right, I noticed the same thing.... DR. Neil Frank said everything depends on the High wich is currently holding strong.

[dhweather]

Hell. The current track is not only right on my house at 72 hours, but it's on my parent's house (evac destination inland) halfway etween 72 and 96 hours.

Crap. Wanna go to Dallas?

[Brent]

Hell. The current track is not only right on my house at 72 hours, but it's on my parent's house (evac destination inland) halfway etween 72 and 96 hours.

Crap. Wanna go to Dallas?

I'm setting up a refugee camp in my backyard...

Looks like it might be squally here too though.

[HurryKane]

Hell. The current track is not only right on my house at 72 hours, but it's on my parent's house (evac destination inland) halfway etween 72 and 96 hours.

Crap. Wanna go to Dallas?

NO.