Tropical Storm Ophelia

[txwatcher91]

Well, look at it in the latest image on this website. It looks to be refiring storms on the south side.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[artist]

how much effect does her strength have on her future track?

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like a sqeezeplay to me.
If that ridge is really strong, logic would have me thinking that O will have no choice but to be swept east (but the dry air to the SE looks like it could block too), slide SW toward the path of least resistance, or be ripped up in a shear between the two highs (I wish).
That's just from a visual observation on that WV loop.
I do not know the full nature of the features I see there.
So, if someone much more knowledgeable would comment on that loop, I sure would appreciate it!

I partly agree on the squeeze play theory. The pushing of the dry air and ridge to the north and west and the push of the approaching ULL and some additional dry air to the east, south, and southeast may be what is causing Ophelia to look raggedy. You can check the water vapor loop to see what I mean.

Who else is thinking the same or something similar?

[JTD]

Looks like a sqeezeplay to me.
If that ridge is really strong, logic would have me thinking that O will have no choice but to be swept east (but the dry air to the SE looks like it could block too), slide SW toward the path of least resistance, or be ripped up in a shear between the two highs (I wish).
That's just from a visual observation on that WV loop.
I do not know the full nature of the features I see there.
So, if someone much more knowledgeable would comment on that loop, I sure would appreciate it!

I partly agree on the squeeze play theory. The pushing of the dry air and ridge to the north and west and the push of the approaching ULL and some additional dry air to the east, south, and southeast may be what is causing Ophelia to look raggedy. You can check the water vapor loop to see what I mean.

Who else is thinking the same or something similar?

Could we have Ophelia go from a tropical storm to a hurricane back to a tropical storm to a hurricane and then back again to a tropical storm in just 24 hours?

[tronbunny]

Looks more like a dogleg to me..
I guess O is just gonna wait for traffic (ridge moving E) before crossing into CONUS

[FlSteel]

Looks like a sqeezeplay to me.
If that ridge is really strong, logic would have me thinking that O will have no choice but to be swept east (but the dry air to the SE looks like it could block too), slide SW toward the path of least resistance, or be ripped up in a shear between the two highs (I wish).
That's just from a visual observation on that WV loop.
I do not know the full nature of the features I see there.
So, if someone much more knowledgeable would comment on that loop, I sure would appreciate it!

I partly agree on the squeeze play theory. The pushing of the dry air and ridge to the north and west and the push of the approaching ULL and some additional dry air to the east, south, and southeast may be what is causing Ophelia to look raggedy. You can check the water vapor loop to see what I mean.

Who else is thinking the same or something similar?

I agree with you.

[tronbunny]

8pm is late?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

Duh.. they did state in the last adv. that next would be 11pm.

Is it because O isn't an immediate threat that they're not updating at 8pm?

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking raggedy, but appears to be trying to reorganize and work against the shear and dry air on an uphill battle. Ophelia is trying to reform convection, especially near the center. Still, does not look as impressive as earlier at all.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Looks raggedy in visible imagery as well but, as evidenced in infra-red imagery, is trying to work against it's challenges. In visible imagery, both the west and east sides look rather open and raggedy. There are a lot of gaps in the clouds.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Does not look too impressive on water vapor imagery as well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

It has an uphill battle, looks like it may go back and forth between tropical storm and hurricane strength as it teeter-totters, like jason0509 mentioned.

[cinlfla]

I agree I just took a look and she doesn't look as good as earlier. if she is weaker how does this affect steering for her?

[Jim Hughes]

Could we have Ophelia go from a tropical storm to a hurricane back to a tropical storm to a hurricane and then back again to a tropical storm in just 24 hours?

She vey well might and it would not surprise me. She's going to looked ragged for most of the night probably but wait until tomorrow morning. She'll change.


Jim

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree I just took a look and she doesn't look as good as earlier. if she is weaker how does this affect steering for her?

If she is weaker, she might be more influenced by the ridge or trough and be steered more to the east. However, similar factors and the weak steering currents could cause her to meander around more. In addition, she could try to push north-northwest through the ridge, gradually turning more towards (most likely) the South Carolina or North Carolina (U.S.) coast. Things are very uncertain, however, and her potential weakening makes tracking Ophelia even harder.

Just my opinion. Any thoughts, comments, agreements or disagreements?

[txwatcher91]

Well, she is beginning to look better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, she is beginning to look better.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Maybe, but almost surely barely. Also, the link does not go directly to your source.

Maybe all you saw was better convection near the center. I noticed that as well... however, overall the storm looks unhealthy compared to earlier.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would say it will weaken more in the short term. The dry air over NC now ( 29% RH) is getting pushed into the west circ. The next moisture is coming from the approaching ULL, and with that shear.

If the ULL tracks more west, it may serve to ventilate it some more. I would expect some slowing soon of the forward motion. Probably by morning.

[jrod]

Since I live in central Florida I look for a scenerio that will bring the storm toward me. What has to happen is high pressure to build to the north and a little west of Ophelia, then it would be in the NE flow around the high and would go on a SW path followed by a westerly path and eventually make a turn to the north when it is on the west side of the anti-cyclonic flow. A couple of models were showing this scenerio yesterday and this morning but now none are. Also there is an ULL approaching the Ophelia from the west. If the ULL stays south and west of it then it may feel the NE wind flow around it and that could cause a track to the SW.


I dont think any of that is likely and think the storm will end up where the NHC says it will. I just like looking at scenerios that will bring the storm to me.

[Coredesat]

Intermediate advisories are only issued if any warnings are in effect.

[nequad]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050910 0000 050910 1200 050911 0000 050911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.1N 77.5W 31.1N 76.6W 31.7N 76.0W 32.0N 75.4W
BAMM 30.1N 77.5W 30.9N 76.8W 31.4N 76.0W 32.0N 75.2W
A98E 30.1N 77.5W 30.9N 76.2W 31.5N 75.3W 32.7N 75.9W
LBAR 30.1N 77.5W 31.1N 76.2W 32.5N 74.4W 33.7N 70.8W
SHIP 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS 80KTS
DSHP 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050912 0000 050913 0000 050914 0000 050915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.3N 75.0W 33.2N 75.2W 34.7N 75.8W 37.8N 74.7W
BAMM 32.6N 74.8W 33.8N 75.8W 34.3N 77.3W 35.8N 76.2W
A98E 31.7N 78.1W 31.1N 77.2W 32.5N 74.8W 36.6N 73.7W
LBAR 34.4N 65.1W 35.2N 50.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 83KTS 82KTS 75KTS 63KTS
DSHP 83KTS 82KTS 62KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.1N LONCUR = 77.5W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 38DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.6N LONM24 = 79.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 65NM



Moving 55 DEG @7knots

[cjrciadt]

Look at the models now!

[nequad]

She's a little east of the forecast track....

[nequad]