Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5
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fasterdisaster
- Category 5
- Posts: 1868
- Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
- Location: Miami, Florida
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103
KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY
WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH
EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...
WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER
...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR
6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL
...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103
KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY
WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH
EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...
WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER
...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR
6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL
...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLA
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#neversummer
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Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
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Stratosphere747 wrote:dwg71 wrote:Ridge rules, we will have to wait and see. I still think Matagorda Bay of just south of there. The GFS is notorious for this.
Worse case scenario dwg...
Models, Pros, NHC....This is about as bad as we could ever imagine..
Just wondering -- how is that the worst case scenario? I'd think having it go a bit north and smack Galveston/Houston with surge or go a bit south and have it smack Corpus Christi with surge would be worse.
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Windy wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:dwg71 wrote:Ridge rules, we will have to wait and see. I still think Matagorda Bay of just south of there. The GFS is notorious for this.
Worse case scenario dwg...
Models, Pros, NHC....This is about as bad as we could ever imagine..
Just wondering -- how is that the worst case scenario? I'd think having it go a bit north and smack Galveston/Houston with surge or go a bit south and have it smack Corpus Christi with surge would be worse.
Check out where Stratosphere lives...that's how.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Callista wrote:Somebody mentioned shear weakening Rita... what do you mean by that? (Yeah, I know what shear is, I just didn't know that it could weaken a hurricane... or what sort of shear you're talking about).
Me is a n00b
Shear causes the deep thunderstorms to be blown away from the center/eye, and thus weakens the storm. It can also cut off outflow and inflow which a storm needs to strengthen(note the high clouds around Rita coming out from the circulation, that's her breathing and it makes her stronger). If it gets cut off, the circulation basically chokes.
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
...RITA BECOMES FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 2 AM EDT..ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 2 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CUBA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...NORTHWEST
OF HAVANA CUBA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE THE CENTER OF RITA INTO THE OPEN SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH AND A GUST TO 87 MPH BEFORE
CONTACT WITH THE STATION WAS LOST.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY IN
ALL AREAS.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
...RITA BECOMES FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 2 AM EDT..ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 2 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CUBA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...NORTHWEST
OF HAVANA CUBA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE THE CENTER OF RITA INTO THE OPEN SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH AND A GUST TO 87 MPH BEFORE
CONTACT WITH THE STATION WAS LOST.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY IN
ALL AREAS.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
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- Location: Portland,OR
- Contact:
Up to 120 mph...
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 15
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
...Major category three Rita moving into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and continuing to strengthen...
at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
Florida Keys is discontinued east of the Marquesas Keys...including
Key West. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.3 north...longitude 84.6 west or about 175 miles...
285 km...west of Key West Florida and about 160 miles... 255 km...
west-northwest of Havana Cuba.
Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This
motion should bring the center of Rita farther away from the
Florida Keys over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph...195
km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a category three hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Rita is expected to become a category four
hurricane sometime later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels
is possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Storm surge
flooding elsewhere in the Florida Keys and South Florida should
subside today.
Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1
to 3 inches over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with maximum amounts of 10
inches over the higher elevations...are possible over northwest
Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.3 N... 84.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
$$
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 15
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
...Major category three Rita moving into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and continuing to strengthen...
at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
Florida Keys is discontinued east of the Marquesas Keys...including
Key West. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.3 north...longitude 84.6 west or about 175 miles...
285 km...west of Key West Florida and about 160 miles... 255 km...
west-northwest of Havana Cuba.
Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This
motion should bring the center of Rita farther away from the
Florida Keys over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph...195
km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a category three hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Rita is expected to become a category four
hurricane sometime later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels
is possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Storm surge
flooding elsewhere in the Florida Keys and South Florida should
subside today.
Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1
to 3 inches over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with maximum amounts of 10
inches over the higher elevations...are possible over northwest
Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.3 N... 84.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
$$
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000
WTNT23 KNHC 210833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING
KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 84.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WTNT23 KNHC 210833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING
KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 84.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 15
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
the reconnaissance mission scheduled for this morning was scrubbed
due to electronics problems on multiple aircraft. However...before
the eye went out of range of the velocity data from the Key West
WSR-88D...winds of 100-115 kt were seen at between 9000-13000 ft.
Additionally...satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from all
agencies. Based on this and extrapolation of trends from the last
aircraft mission...the initial intensity is increased to 105
kt...and this may be conservative give the satellite appearance.
The initial motion is 275-280 degrees at 12 kt. Rita should
continue to move generally westward for the next 36 hr or so on the
south side of the strong deep-layer ridge over the northern Gulf
Coast. Beyond that time...the large-scale models forecast the
ridge to weaken and shift eastward...allowing a more northward
motion. The models have come into somewhat better agreement on
this run...as the GFS has shifted westward from its previous
forecast...while the NOGAPS and GFDN have shifted northward from
their south Texas landfall. The forecast track is close to the
consensus models and the FSU superensemble...being nudged slightly
north of the previous track during the first 48-72 hr and slightly
westward thereafter with a landfall on the middle Texas coast in
just over 72 hr. However...these changes are in the noise level.
The satellite signature of Rita gives every impression that rapid
intensification is continuing...and while the equatorward outflow
channel mentioned earlier is not as apparent now the poleward
outflow channel is still going strong. Thus intensification could
continue until a concentric eyewall cycle occurs or until the eye
moves west of The Loop current in about 24 hr. The GFDL model
peaks Rita at about 120 kt in 12-18 hr...the SHIPS model peaks it
at 122 kt in 48 hr...and the superensemble peaks it at 131 kt in 48
hr. The intensity forecast will bring the system to 125 kt in 24
hr as a blend of these forecasts. However...it would not be a
surprise if Rita became a category five hurricane in the next 24 hr
before weakening somewhat due to a concentric eyewall cycle or the
lower ocean heat content west of The Loop current. Rita should
maintain major hurricane status until landfall...then weaken after
landfall.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 24.3n 84.6w 105 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 24.4n 86.5w 115 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 88.7w 125 kt
36hr VT 22/1800z 25.2n 90.8w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 92.8w 125 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 28.0n 95.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 25/0600z 31.5n 97.0w 50 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/0600z 35.5n 96.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
$$
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
the reconnaissance mission scheduled for this morning was scrubbed
due to electronics problems on multiple aircraft. However...before
the eye went out of range of the velocity data from the Key West
WSR-88D...winds of 100-115 kt were seen at between 9000-13000 ft.
Additionally...satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from all
agencies. Based on this and extrapolation of trends from the last
aircraft mission...the initial intensity is increased to 105
kt...and this may be conservative give the satellite appearance.
The initial motion is 275-280 degrees at 12 kt. Rita should
continue to move generally westward for the next 36 hr or so on the
south side of the strong deep-layer ridge over the northern Gulf
Coast. Beyond that time...the large-scale models forecast the
ridge to weaken and shift eastward...allowing a more northward
motion. The models have come into somewhat better agreement on
this run...as the GFS has shifted westward from its previous
forecast...while the NOGAPS and GFDN have shifted northward from
their south Texas landfall. The forecast track is close to the
consensus models and the FSU superensemble...being nudged slightly
north of the previous track during the first 48-72 hr and slightly
westward thereafter with a landfall on the middle Texas coast in
just over 72 hr. However...these changes are in the noise level.
The satellite signature of Rita gives every impression that rapid
intensification is continuing...and while the equatorward outflow
channel mentioned earlier is not as apparent now the poleward
outflow channel is still going strong. Thus intensification could
continue until a concentric eyewall cycle occurs or until the eye
moves west of The Loop current in about 24 hr. The GFDL model
peaks Rita at about 120 kt in 12-18 hr...the SHIPS model peaks it
at 122 kt in 48 hr...and the superensemble peaks it at 131 kt in 48
hr. The intensity forecast will bring the system to 125 kt in 24
hr as a blend of these forecasts. However...it would not be a
surprise if Rita became a category five hurricane in the next 24 hr
before weakening somewhat due to a concentric eyewall cycle or the
lower ocean heat content west of The Loop current. Rita should
maintain major hurricane status until landfall...then weaken after
landfall.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 24.3n 84.6w 105 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 24.4n 86.5w 115 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 88.7w 125 kt
36hr VT 22/1800z 25.2n 90.8w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 92.8w 125 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 28.0n 95.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 25/0600z 31.5n 97.0w 50 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/0600z 35.5n 96.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
$$
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