Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[cycloneye]

211137
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[superfly]

TS to cat 4 in 24 hours, pressure has dropped 40mb in the last 24 hours.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION...

.LOCATION...
AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

.MOVEMENT...
HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.INTENSITY...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EVACUATION INFORMATION...
FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN
PROGRESS.  MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING
FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THIS MORNING.  ON GALVESTON
ISLAND... BUSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON
BROADWAY THIS MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS
OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM TODAY.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING
AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF
HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN

DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES
WILL BE MADE TODAY.

.SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS...
MOST INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND
BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY. GALVESTON
COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY.

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE
CLOSING ALL FACILITIES AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD.

.STORM SURGE AND TIDES...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON
THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS.

LOCATION          HIGH TIDE TIME     EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

PLEASURE PIER      937 PM CDT THU    4.5 FEET

PORT BOLIVAR      1123 PM CDT THU    3.7 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU    3.7 FEET

SAN LUIS PASS     1100 PM CDT THU    3.5 FEET

JAMAICA BEACH      147 AM CDT FRI    3.2 FEET

MORGANS POINT      930 AM CDT FRI    3.2 FEET

EAGLE POINT        303 AM CDT FRI    3.2 FEET

FREEPORT           949 PM CDT FRI    4.2 FEET

PORT OCONNOR       451 AM CDT FRI    3.3 FEET

CLEAR LAKE         514 AM CDT FRI    3.1 FEET

.WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.RAINFALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT.

[AZS]

" RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY "

CAT 4 later today ???

She is now a CAT 4 and i think that RITA could be a CAT 5 later today.

[TexasStooge]

" RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY "

CAT 4 later today ???

She is now a CAT 4 and i think that RITA could be a CAT 5 later today.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was a cat. 5.

[canegrl04]

Our Fox met said Rita would top out at 140-145mph.What a doofus

[LAwxrgal]

This next advisory should be a doozy.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Dvorak estimate currently at #6.9, 922.9mb/137.4kt

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW
ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE
SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
FURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP
CURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE
INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON
THIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 24.3N 85.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND

[x-y-no]

. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
FURTHER...IF NECESSARY.

[djtil]

looks like official forecast is for borderline cat3/4 at landfall....thank goodness for the lower SSTs before landfall.....a decent amount of weakening forecast based on this.

[Coredesat]

looks like official forecast is for borderline cat3/4 at landfall....thank goodness for the lower SSTs before landfall.....a decent amount of weakening forecast based on this.

That might be bumped up if recon finds that Rita is stronger than the advisory says she is.

[djtil]

That might be bumped up if recon finds that Rita is stronger than the advisory says she is.

i dont know....the 11am advisory already allows for strengthening to 135kts........i dont think she will be higher than that based on recon....the sat is very impressive but the IR doesnt have that perfectly "smooth" cat 5 look quite yet.

ill take a wild guess that recon finds 125kt flight level and a 945mb pressure. if they EVER get there!!

[Coredesat]

That might be bumped up if recon finds that Rita is stronger than the advisory says she is.

i dont know....the 11pm advisory already allows for strengthening to 135kts........i dont think she will be higher than that based on recon....the sat is very impressive but the IR doesnt have that perfectly "smooth" cat 5 look quite yet.

ill take a wild guess that recon finds 125kt flight level and a 945mb pressure. if they EVER get there!!

Well, the 11 AM advisory doesn't reflect the observations of the recon plane that just went out. Rita most recently got a T-number of 7.0, which corresponds to 140 kt surface (probably 160 kt flight level) and a 920 mb pressure.

[jpigott]

. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
FURTHER...IF NECESSARY.

Rita is , it would be nice to get an official wind/pressure reading b/c this may go down as one of the most quickly intensifying canes ever in the Atlantic Basin. Unfortunately, one of these days a Rita/Katrina like bombing out is going to happen just prior to a landfall. I wonder if we could see with Rita what we saw with Ivan and Katrina, a cat 5 in the middle gulf that weakens to a cat3/4 at landfall, but still with a cat 5 surge.

[Pebbles]

. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
FURTHER...IF NECESSARY.

Rita is , it would be nice to get an official wind/pressure reading b/c this may go down as one of the most quickly intensifying canes ever in the Atlantic Basin. Unfortunately, one of these days a Rita/Katrina like bombing out is going to happen just prior to a landfall. I wonder if we could see with Rita what we saw with Ivan and Katrina, a cat 5 in the middle gulf that weakens to a cat3/4 at landfall, but still with a cat 5 surge.

Actually I strongly believe we will probably end up seeing Cat 5 surge. Surge does not seem to be effected as rapidly as the wind by weakening.

[canegrl04]

140kts .What is that? 160mph?