Charley Advisories

[Brent]

Well this looks like a possible chase for me then. Bit worried about the possible strength of this but what do you experts think about this thing continuing on its course and not curving out E?

No way in **** this is going out to sea. It's going somewhere.

[ChaserUK]

Mmmm, I thought as much Brent I have to say. I had a quick glance at the NHC charts and thought this would have to go somewhere! Just got to plan this right. It was easier getting time of at short notice with previous employer but that might not be so easy with the current one. Some sweet talking in order I think.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

Yes, this is a bit bold, but I feel ships is slightly underdoing this. Now, if TD 2 explodes, this will be a big time bustorama as the shear form td 2 outflow will keep this to cat 1 or 2

[Guest]

Showing a very obvious circulation this afternoon, once this thing gets organized, the center may be repositioned to the north. Something to keep an eye, could affect possible eventual contact with cuba or the yucatan...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, really bold. Well, there is always the potential, and you are right for doing so. The environment is pretty favorable, so rapid intensification is always possible. Good forecast.

[Hurricanehink]

Ooh, good circulation. Well, we need to keep an eye on this and on the thing in the gulf. Good thing we have too. Don't know what we would do if something else was forming

[Derek Ortt]

a 50KT Bonnie is NOT what we needed for 3 to become a major

[Wnghs2007]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 09, 2004


The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit impressive organization of
the outer cloud structure...with impressive upper-level
anticyclonic outflow. However...there is no concentration of deep
convection over the center and a lack of convection over the
southeastern quadrant. Given what appears to be a favorable
environment...steady strengthening is forecast. The official wind
speed forecast is more conservative than the latest SHIPS model
run...mainly due to the inherent uncertainty in tropical cyclone
intensity prediction.
Motion continues at around 280/19. No material changes have been
made to the track forecast and the reasoning behind it. A
mid-tropospheric ridge should remain in place to the north of the
Greater Antilles. This should maintain a westward to
west-northwestward motion over the next several days. In the
latter part of the period...a weakness in the ridge due to a large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is expected to
cause a slowing of the forward speed and a gradual turn to the
right. The official forecast lies roughly between the GFS and GFDL
solutions.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/2100z 11.8n 62.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 10/0600z 12.5n 64.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 10/1800z 13.4n 68.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 11/0600z 14.3n 71.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 11/1800z 15.3n 74.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 12/1800z 17.5n 79.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 13/1800z 19.5n 82.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 14/1800z 22.0n 85.5w 70 kt

$$

[cycloneye]

The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit impressive organization of
the outer cloud structure...with impressive upper-level
anticyclonic outflow. However...there is no concentration of deep
convection over the center and a lack of convection over the
southeastern quadrant. Given what appears to be a favorable
environment...steady strengthening is forecast. The official wind
speed forecast is more conservative than the latest SHIPS model
run...mainly due to the inherent uncertainty in tropical cyclone
intensity prediction.
Motion continues at around 280/19. No material changes have been
made to the track forecast and the reasoning behind it. A
mid-tropospheric ridge should remain in place to the north of the
Greater Antilles. This should maintain a westward to
west-northwestward motion over the next several days. In the
latter part of the period...a weakness in the ridge due to a large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is expected to
cause a slowing of the forward speed and a gradual turn to the
right. The official forecast lies roughly between the GFS and GFDL
solutions.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/2100z 11.8n 62.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 10/0600z 12.5n 64.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 10/1800z 13.4n 68.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 11/0600z 14.3n 71.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 11/1800z 15.3n 74.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 12/1800z 17.5n 79.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 13/1800z 19.5n 82.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 14/1800z 22.0n 85.5w 70 kt

[Guest]

so you are asserting that the ouflow form a Minimal TPC Moving North will affect TD 3 that is 1000 miles away?


I dont think so...

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

Yes, this is a bit bold, but I feel ships is slightly underdoing this. Now, if TD 2 explodes, this will be a big time bustorama as the shear form td 2 outflow will keep this to cat 1 or 2

[Baytown Bug]

I was checking out the vapor loops of the Caribbean last night and had a hard time picking out any shear. The shear maps on weather underground looked pretty favorable for the next couple of days too. Looks like this one hit a window of opportunity in the gauntlet. Some dry air ahead of it, but receding to the west.

[Derek Ortt]

if it becomes a hurricane, then prehaps. However, I just got a 120 hour forecast from Cangialosi (available soon) for Bonnie and it does not appear as if Bonnie will affect it all that much as it should be out of the GOM before 3 clears the Caymans

[perk]

TD#3 IS A HUGE STORM. IF YOU LOOK AT IT ON VISABLE SATELITE IT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORTH TO A LITTLE BEYOND 15 DEGREES NORTH. THAT HAS TO BE CLOSE TO 400 MILES IN DIAMETER.

[JTD]

I know it's way too soon, but let's just give a best shot guess. Do you believe Charley-to-be will hit somewhere in the U.S? And how strong do you think it will be at landfall? Are there any Lili or Isabel like factors that could dramatically weaken this storm before landfall? When do you see landfall occuring?

I know, for sure, that this is crystal-ball gazing but let's do it anyway.

[Brent]

If Charley comes from TD 3(which I am almost certain of) it will NOT recurve and miss the U.S. I believe it will follow the NHC track fairly closely, becoming a hurricane very close to Jamaica, and then moving NW across the Cayman Islands and to near Western Cuba on Saturday where it could be a major hurricane, then it will move into the Gulf and I think areas from Louisiana Eastward are at the greatest risk of a landfall sometime Sunday or Monday, and I think barring some stall over land, shear, or dry air, it should be a significant hurricane.

[JTD]

Thanks, Brent. That's exactly the kind of analysis I was looking for. Even though it is scary!

[Deenac813]

Hi Everyone. Maybe someone can answer this one for me. Can anyone guess as to how Bonnie's track will effect TD#3? Will it make TD#3 curve or stay the same? Sorry if this is a silly question but I am a big time novice

[stormchazer]

I believe they are far enough apart were one system should not effect the path of the other.

I'm not sure whether upwelling could effect the intensity of TD 3, once and if it enters the Gulf.

[ColdFront77]

As of 5:00 PM Eastern Advisories, Tropical Depression #3 and Tropical Storm Bonnie's centers were approximately 1,920 miles apart.

[Brent]

There is a new flareup near the center of TD 3. You can clearly see the center spinning west quickly. Looks like it may be getting organized despite being near South America. Once it clears that, it could really intensify.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html