Frances Advisories

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Steve Cosby
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Re: Not soon enough

#1001 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 27, 2004 1:59 pm

Brent wrote:Your right, Subtract 4 hours from UTC to get EDT. The 28 is the day of the month the flight is scheduled.


Thank you - I was thinking 6 hours back to central but that's not during Daylight Savings Time.
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#1002 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 1:59 pm

Well its probably because of the good atmospheric conditions that allow these hurricanes to rapidly deepen(something we have been seeing over and over this season so far) and this causes the eye to contract signifigantly. If we were to see slow development then the eye might be a little wider because it wouldnt contract so quickly. Frances had a larger eye earlier on but she is really deepening now, and looking at IR the eye is becoming very small and contracted now. If i am wrong, someone please correct me, but i think the reason for small eyes this year is in part due to the rapid deepening of these systems caused by good atmospheric conditions for development.
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#1003 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 1:59 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Ok.. that now makes 3 majors this season?

Alex, Charley, and Frances


Yep. :eek:

6-4-3 right now. Plus whatever comes of TD 7 and 98L.
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#1004 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 1:59 pm

Frances is becoming a textbook storm huh
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#1005 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:00 pm

Brent.. No joke intended but..

6-4-3 DOUBLE PLAY! lol.. sorry..

Thinking a little baseball today
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Re: Not soon enough

#1006 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:00 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Brent wrote:Your right, Subtract 4 hours from UTC to get EDT. The 28 is the day of the month the flight is scheduled.


Thank you - I was thinking 6 hours back to central but that's not during Daylight Savings Time.


5 hours for CDT. Once the time changes, it'll be 5 hours for EST and 6 hours for CST.

Confused yet? :wink:
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#1007 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:01 pm

Yes, indeed she is, however I think its possible now that she will peak in intensity well away from land, then could actually drop off in intensity somewhat before making landfall..... not forecasting this to occur though it is something we need to consider. I.E lily and Isabel, and Floyd
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#1008 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:02 pm

Big Eyed.. My plans are most likely to just ride it out at my place..

Though I saw from Charley how scary that can be.. I wonder what my countie's EOC is thinking as they watch Frances churn
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#1009 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:02 pm

NHC's 11am discussion said Frances could be a cat 3 as early as today,and she looks like it right now.Frances is the mother of all hurricanes this season :eek:
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Re: Not soon enough

#1010 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:03 pm

Brent wrote:Confused yet? :wink:


Yeah, really! :D
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#1011 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:04 pm

Geeeeeeez.....that was quick...... :shocked!:
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kevin

#1012 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:04 pm

This (TD7) would be a great storm for the hurricane hunter boat.
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#1013 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:04 pm

Well Sunday makes sense for Frances lol
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#1014 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:04 pm

Thanks.. Better for the models if they went out today... Oh Well!
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Boat?

#1015 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:05 pm

kevin wrote:This (TD7) would be a great storm for the hurricane hunter boat.


Boat? Are you nuts? :lol:

The Tahoe under the bridge was bad enough!
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#1016 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:05 pm

a hurricane hunter BOAT? :eek: :lol:
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#1017 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:06 pm

Wow, good job!
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#1018 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:06 pm

C'mon, a tropical depresson wouldn't capsize a hurricane hunter boat. Its a good idea. Not as good as a nuclear power hurricane hunter submarine.. but sufficient for a tropical depression/storm.
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#1019 Postby Skywatch_NC » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:07 pm

A city like Raleigh (some would think is FAR inland and a 'cane like Frances potentially...wouldn't be a major problem by then) but since Fran, Floyd and Isabel...Fran for ie. sent the infamous Crabtree Creek way over it's banks and made the Crabtree Valley Mall parking lot a lake in Raleigh for a period of time! :eek: Isabel still had her ferocity battering VA after an NC landfall and Floyd inundating areas like for ie. Rocky Mount, NC along the I-95 corridor and turning it into a giant lake in many areas of that city!! :eek: Let alone the scores of trees, power lines, structures, etc., affected, too! :eek:

Eric
Last edited by Skywatch_NC on Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Steve Cosby
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Well, yeah...

#1020 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:09 pm

kevin wrote:C'mon, a tropical depresson wouldn't capsize a hurricane hunter boat. Its a good idea. Not as good as a nuclear power hurricane hunter submarine.. but sufficient for a tropical depression/storm.


Well, yeah, I'll grant you that (and how do you know that SSN's are not prowling around under there in the past anyway?).

In 24 hours, sitting right on the gulf stream like it is, I'll bet you could get decent odds that TD 7 will be well wound up and the boat would have a harder time than Sudduth's Tahoe.
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