Frances Advisories

[dhweather]

Thanks for the info, good stuff!!!

[Cookiely]

Its awe inspiring to watch this hurricane grow. I just wish it wouldn't make landfall.

[~SirCane]

Too early to call!!! That's all I gotta say.

[SouthFLTropics]

the gulfstream jet. Is it scheduled to sample the environment ahead of Frances to get some better input into the models? It would be quite interesting to see what effect if any TD7 will have on Frances future track...Here in SE Florida we are cautiously watching the situation unfold.

[WeatherEmperor]

Are you serious? Do you have a link to show me some information about that? I thought they would do it a bit later on in the forecast period but it would be so great to have the NOAA jet get out there and sample that environment.

<RICKY>

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not sure. I was just wondering and hoping that someone would have some info regarding the NOAA jet. That data would be real nice to have in the models!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not sure. I was just wondering and hoping that someone would have some info regarding the NOAA jet. That data would be real nice to have in the models!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not sure. I was just wondering and hoping that someone would have some info regarding the NOAA jet. That data would be real nice to have in the models!!!

[c5Camille]

Yikes

moving NW at 11mph
962mb

gusts to 140mph

[Brent]

Yes, the Gulfstream Jet will test the environment AROUND Frances. They are doing it because it's forecast to be passing close, but north of the islands in a few days and approaching the Bahamas by mid-week.

[SouthFLTropics]

oops, sorry about the double post!

[cycloneye]

http://english.wunderground.com/tropica ... arine.html

[Brent]

Now forecast to become a Cat 4!!!!

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 12


Statement as of 21:00Z on August 27, 2004



interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

Hurricane center located near 15.7n 49.8w at 27/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 962 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 45ne 35se 35sw 45nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 80se 80sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 100se 100sw 120nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 15.7n 49.8w at 27/2100z
at 27/1800z center was located near 15.4n 49.4w

forecast valid 28/0600z 16.9n 51.2w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 90se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 28/1800z 17.9n 52.8w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 55ne 45se 45sw 55nw.
34 kt...110ne 100se 100sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 29/0600z 18.9n 54.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 60ne 50se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 110sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 29/1800z 19.7n 56.4w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 65ne 55se 55sw 65nw.
34 kt...130ne 120se 120sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 20.6n 60.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 130sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 31/1800z 21.5n 64.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Outlook valid 01/1800z 22.5n 69.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.7n 49.8w

next advisory at 28/0300z

forecaster Stewart

[dhweather]

Oh well, I was one day off from my cat 3 guess.

[c5Camille]

this is going to be formitable....

[B-Bear]

Just out of curiosity--does anybody know offhand what the record low pressure is for an Atlantic storm?

[Guest]

Isabel got down to 915, I know some storms in the GOM have gone below 900....

[NorthGaWeather]

The Atlantic Basin record is 888 mb with Gilbert.

[c5Camille]

the 5 day forcast track for NHC is shifting
west... again...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004



Frances has continued to rapidly intensify as indicated by a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of t5.5...or 102 kt...from both TAFB
and SAB. The inner-core convection has increased in vertical depth
and areal coverage...and the outflow is excellent and continues to
improve and expand outward.

The motion is 305/09. Frances has made a slight northwestward jog as
alluded to in the previous advisory...but this is expected to be
short-lived as the shortwave trough located due north of Frances
moves eastward and the ridge builds back in behind the trough. This
should turn Frances back to the west-northwest on Saturday. There
is now much less divergence in the NHC model suite after 48 hours
...And in the longer time periods. All of the models now agree that
the high zonal flow forecast to develop across the northern U.S.
And the North Atlantic after 48hr will allow for a strong
subtropical ridge to the south to extend east-west from the Azores
to Bermuda and into the southeastern U.S. The latest GFS and
Canadian models have shifted farther north...while the UKMET and
GFDL models have shifted a little more to the south and west. All
of these models are converging nicely about the previous several
NHC forecast tracks...so I see no reason at this time to make any
significant changes to the previous track forecasts. The official
track is just an extension of the previous track and is close to
the GUNA model consensus.

Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
now makes Frances a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the
'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the GFS
forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast.
There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the
next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time
during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/2100z 15.7n 49.8w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/0600z 16.9n 51.2w 105 kt
24hr VT 28/1800z 17.9n 52.8w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/0600z 18.9n 54.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 29/1800z 19.7n 56.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 30/1800z 20.6n 60.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 31/1800z 21.5n 64.5w 115 kt
120hr VT