Ivan Advisories

[MBryant]

I'm just learning to decode, but I think this is 50 Knots.
The 145 you see is 14.5 dagrees latitude

[wjs3]

This is a "latest recon ob" and gives the conditions at a particular point in time.

The max flight level wind comes in a vortex report, and you sometimes have to compare several vortex reports to see what the highest wind across several passes they make.

I look at this particular report when Recon is in a tropical wave trying to see if it has closed off a circulation. The group that says "06050" (in your report) has info on the wind direction and speed, so you can watch these spot report and look for a west wind--which can indicate a closed circulation.

[artinla]

I believe you are correct.

I remember a 7 degree difference at her peak.

[soonertwister]

Wake me up when he gets to 921 mb, which is about cat-5 in the Atlantic. 943 puts him about in the middle of cat-4 intensity. And a 4 mb drop in and of itself isn't all that surprising.

What's surprising is when you see a drop of 30+ mb in a 6-12 hour period.

[Jetman]

Thank you guys

[frankthetank]

ive got the beach cams from Bonaire....looks kinda nasty....

http://www.bonairewebcams.com/TheWorks.php

[ericinmia]

New to this-please be nice! Just a little confused. I know the whole disclaimer thing-too far out, go by official forecast,etc.

However, I am curious why my local mets already have this pegged as a Gulf Coast event with little chance of curving that sharply north. Is this just a "jog" that is showing up or a possible but unlikely scenario?

No-I don't want the thing and am not "-removed-". Think of me as the Forest Gump of weather. Just wondering why the discrepancy.

They are following the NHC forecast like good little sheep... lol
Seriously, most local mets don't have the proper education, or resources let alone brain power to come to their own conclusions. Some do, which is nice; however, most do not. Also this far out they tend to not like to put that line over someone's house, a la tampa scenario of charley...

-Eric

[Jetman]

I changed the header to prevent confusing

[greeng13]

Wake me up when he gets to 921 mb, which is about cat-5 in the Atlantic. 943 puts him about in the middle of cat-4 intensity. And a 4 mb drop in and of itself isn't all that surprising.

What's surprising is when you see a drop of 30+ mb in a 6-12 hour period.

any idea the pressure change on that fateful day when he went from TS to CAT4? (i think that was the case)

[bwstg]

It's too late to hit the e. coast of florida...

[ColinD]

i dont know. i dont see anyone on here finding ways ivan could weaken. it sounds like a cheerleading squad.

Just a few hours ago, I posted that Ivan will be weaker 24 hours from then than it was.

But ummm .. right now, I'm just going to stand back and witness an amazing looking storm.

[skysummit]

Panama City MET says he doesn't think it will turn east of Florida and doesn't see it going towards Texas. He says the furtherst west would be Biloxi or New Orleans, but everything he sees is pointing toward the eastern gulf, especially the panhandle and all points on the west Florida coast.

He also says once Ivan crosses Cuba, the forecasts call for all steering to just about dicipate and at that point, Ivan will have a mind of his own and go where ever he pleases.

[Bane]

huh? You're not saying people want deaths are you?

I believe it was sarcasm. Several here seem so happy that a potential cat 5 hurricane could be making landfall several timess over the next 7 days.

[Stormsfury]

Of course, RECON will tell a different story, but after stair stepping earlier today, Ivan's going WEST, young man ... for the time being ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ColinD]

[artinla]

I read somewhere that of all the strong cat 4's that became cat 5's, one of the common factors was that each had experienced a 25mb+ drop in pressure in a 24 hour period. There was a list of other factors, wish I could remember them all to post them for you.

You are right soonertwister, not an "explosive" storm yet, but one that has me concerned! We had 110mph winds at my house during Frederic in 1979 and I can only imagine 140+.

[AirmaN]

sick

[Innotech]

who-rus?

[ColinD]

If west were north. Looking pretty egyptian god there. Ummm .. wow.

[ColinD]

who-rus?

http://altreligion.about.com/library/gl ... fhorus.htm