Frances Advisories

[c5Camille]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004



Frances has continued to rapidly intensify as indicated by a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of t5.5...or 102 kt...from both TAFB
and SAB. The inner-core convection has increased in vertical depth
and areal coverage...and the outflow is excellent and continues to
improve and expand outward.

The motion is 305/09. Frances has made a slight northwestward jog as
alluded to in the previous advisory...but this is expected to be
short-lived as the shortwave trough located due north of Frances
moves eastward and the ridge builds back in behind the trough. This
should turn Frances back to the west-northwest on Saturday. There
is now much less divergence in the NHC model suite after 48 hours
...And in the longer time periods. All of the models now agree that
the high zonal flow forecast to develop across the northern U.S.
And the North Atlantic after 48hr will allow for a strong
subtropical ridge to the south to extend east-west from the Azores
to Bermuda and into the southeastern U.S. The latest GFS and
Canadian models have shifted farther north...while the UKMET and
GFDL models have shifted a little more to the south and west. All
of these models are converging nicely about the previous several
NHC forecast tracks...so I see no reason at this time to make any
significant changes to the previous track forecasts. The official
track is just an extension of the previous track and is close to
the GUNA model consensus.

Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
now makes Frances a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the
'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the GFS
forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast.
There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the
next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time
during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/2100z 15.7n 49.8w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/0600z 16.9n 51.2w 105 kt
24hr VT 28/1800z 17.9n 52.8w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/0600z 18.9n 54.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 29/1800z 19.7n 56.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 30/1800z 20.6n 60.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 31/1800z 21.5n 64.5w 115 kt
120hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 69.0w 115 kt


$$

[Guest]

wow possible cat 5. That will grab peoples attention!

[PurdueWx80]

Go Baby Go!

[Wnghs2007]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004



Frances has continued to rapidly intensify as indicated by a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of t5.5...or 102 kt...from both TAFB
and SAB. The inner-core convection has increased in vertical depth
and areal coverage...and the outflow is excellent and continues to
improve and expand outward.

The motion is 305/09. Frances has made a slight northwestward jog as
alluded to in the previous advisory...but this is expected to be
short-lived as the shortwave trough located due north of Frances
moves eastward and the ridge builds back in behind the trough. This
should turn Frances back to the west-northwest on Saturday. There
is now much less divergence in the NHC model suite after 48 hours
...And in the longer time periods. All of the models now agree that
the high zonal flow forecast to develop across the northern U.S.
And the North Atlantic after 48hr will allow for a strong
subtropical ridge to the south to extend east-west from the Azores
to Bermuda and into the southeastern U.S. The latest GFS and
Canadian models have shifted farther north...while the UKMET and
GFDL models have shifted a little more to the south and west. All
of these models are converging nicely about the previous several
NHC forecast tracks...so I see no reason at this time to make any
significant changes to the previous track forecasts. The official
track is just an extension of the previous track and is close to
the GUNA model consensus.

Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
now makes Frances a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the
'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the GFS
forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast.
There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the
next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time
during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/2100z 15.7n 49.8w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/0600z 16.9n 51.2w 105 kt
24hr VT 28/1800z 17.9n 52.8w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/0600z 18.9n 54.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 29/1800z 19.7n 56.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 30/1800z 20.6n 60.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 31/1800z 21.5n 64.5w 115 kt
120hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 69.0w 115 kt


$$

GULP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

its interesting how this hurricane has strengthened so rapidly over the past day. I wouldnt be surprised to see a category 4 storm tomorrow, and it wouldnt shock me if there was a category 5 storm by Sunday.

[huricanwatcher]

cat 4 by tomorrow morning.. i betcha..

[cycloneye]

Go Baby Go!

What do you mean Purdue? Go from the islands or go from the all the east coast.I can say that here in the northern islands we can breath a little more easy from now.

[canegrl04]

OH MY FREAKIN GOD

[Air Force Met]

I now there is a lot of speculation on Frances moving toward the state of florida and the media here is starting to hype it up. However, latest model runs and the fact that we may have a Tropical Depression or even a storm form south of Bermuda increases the chances of Frances moving on a more Northwesterly track toward the Carolinas or points north.

While there is certainly always a chance that the storm would head in a beeline toward the state, the pattern itself is not setting up for this type of track.

As always comments are welcome

I'm not sure what models you are looking at but all the ones I am looking at, with the exception of the NOGAPS, shows the pattern setting up perfectly for this type of track. A building high over the eastern us is perfect for a Florida storm.

[c5Camille]

if not Cat 5 by tomorrow night....

it seems as though it has all it needs.

warmer water ahead...

[Brent]

FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
NOW MAKES FRANCES A 113 KT MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SINCE THE
'SELF-INDUCED' VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OWING TO THE GFS
FORECAST POSITONS BEING CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY SOME TIME
DURING THAT PERIOD...AND CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

[logybogy]

Things look very bad at the moment.

A possible Cat 5 barreling into South Florida.

The strong ridge scenario is almost exactly the same as Andrew in 1992.

[James]

wow possible cat 5. That will grab peoples attention!

Do you really think this could become a CAT 5?

[c5Camille]

or cuba, or straits... or north...
still WAY to early to say...

[Brent]

wow possible cat 5. That will grab peoples attention!

Do you really think this could become a CAT 5?

The NHC would not mention it if there wasn't a good chance. BELIEVE ME. They are the last people to hype things.

[jlauderdal]

I now there is a lot of speculation on Frances moving toward the state of florida and the media here is starting to hype it up. However, latest model runs and the fact that we may have a Tropical Depression or even a storm form south of Bermuda increases the chances of Frances moving on a more Northwesterly track toward the Carolinas or points north.

While there is certainly always a chance that the storm would head in a beeline toward the state, the pattern itself is not setting up for this type of track.

As always comments are welcome

I'm not sure what models you are looking at but all the ones I am looking at, with the exception of the NOGAPS, shows the pattern setting up perfectly for this type of track. A building high over the eastern us is perfect for a Florida storm.

Air Force Met is correct. Anyone that thinks this is a fish or a NC storm at this point better come to the table with something to back it up or don't bother posting because this is looking like a very straight forward forecast for then next 5 days and beyond. That ridge will be anchored nd so far nothing in sight to take it down.

[golter]

Nice post, based on nothing. If that's your prediction then so be it, but this time next week we could still be guessing where she's going. My prediction is a NC grazer.

[c5Camille]

this storm is gonna make history... one way
or another... I'm surprised they haven't gotten
a plane in there yet... you talk about rapid
development.... Geeeesss!

[James]

Good point. So, we could have back to back CAT 5 years, something that thankfully doesn't happen very often. I think the last two were Gilbert and Hugo.

[canegrl04]

We are now watching the hurricane of the decade,folks