Ivan Advisories

[ericinmia]

HOWEVER....

What is more important is the orientation of the storm... NORTH TO SOUTH (Elongated)
This signafies it is "preparing" for its more northerly turn...


Can't argue with that
-Eric

[TyphoonTim]

Yep, it seems like it is headed that way for now. But if you mark the start and end points of the eye, it is nearly a NW trajectory.

[Stormsfury]

And VIS imagery ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[KeyLargoDave]

Bump --
PLEASE, any experts who can respond to the original questions? Or am I just asking for impossible predictions?

[btsgmdad]

WOW! Ivan looks destined to be the first super hurricane of the 21st century.

[Derek Ortt]

One thing about the weakening at the end. I completely dont believe it.

Models have the hurricane farther east; thus, the upper ridge is farther east, leaving the shear where the hurricane is going to be. The shear is likely ficticious and this hurricane probably will not weaken due to shear in the southern Gulf of Mexico

[Anonymous]

And it's based on current forward speed and intensification cycle he is going through. The overall cloud pattern around (360) Ivan is becoming more dense and much more symmetrical. That said, the influence of the upper air flow out in front, appears like it is going to be less of an influence. Weaker ULL out front now.

If this should take place, I see Ivan slamming the NE tip of the Yucatan and taking a similar trek as Gilbert, but with a bit more of a turn toward the end.

[nomolos]

looks more like this to me:

[rainstorm]

the way the ull is moving rapidly west, why not ivan as well? go west ivan, no one wants you here.

[ericinmia]

And it's based on current forward speed and intensification cycle he is going through. The overall cloud pattern around (360) Ivan is becoming more dense and much more symmetrical. That said, the influence of the upper air flow out in front, appears like it is going to be less of an influence. Weaker ULL out front now.

If this should take place, I see Ivan slamming the NE tip of the Yucatan and taking a similar trek as Gilbert, but with a bit more of a turn toward the end.

Sorry, but its changed in shape in relation to the more nw, nnw path its going to take...


-Eric

[greeng13]

someone a few days ago had a thread entitled SKULL with a link to an image of ivan that actually did look like a skull....any links to that pic and any thoughts on that would be appreciated

[Jetman]

Large pressure drops in tropical cyclons (similar in extratropical systems) occur when the updraft rotation of warm air gets so strong that it creates a pull which is powerfull enough to pull down cold and dry air from lower stratopheric levels. This process is isentropic which means that the updrafting, latent, warm air can't interchange its energy with the dropping cold, dry air (isentropic potential vorticity IPV). So, it is forced to rotate around the cold/dry air pillar and that means that a much greater volume of warm, latent air can rose up (rotation --> longer way until the tropopause) and that creates the large pressure drops.

On satellite images of tropical cyclones the cold, dry air pillar is the typical eye, concering extratropical systems it's a dry slot or dry intrusion.

Jetman

[DoctorHurricane2003]

btsgmdad............Isabel was the first Category 5 this century last year.......max winds peaked at 165 MPH.

[otowntiger]

That would be a disaster for Tallahassee, would it not, if it made it to cat 5 by that latest position and continued northward. I know Tallahassee is not a coastal community, but as I've learned living here in Orlando storms can hit you pretty hard fairly far inland. If Ivan slammed into the big bend area just to the south and slightly west of Tally, they'd probably get cat 3 winds at least!!!

[rainstorm]

every inch further west is great

[clueless newbie]

WOW! Ivan looks destined to be the first super hurricane of the 21st century.

Hm, how do you define "super hurricane"? Isabel was quite impresive last year.

[Innotech]

Starting think we'll be safe again here in Louisiana. Panhandle looks like it will get slammed.

perhaps, but our time is coming too.

[Anonymous]

Okie dokie....

[Cape Verde]

HOWEVER....

What is more important is the orientation of the storm... NORTH TO SOUTH (Elongated)
This signafies it is "preparing" for its more northerly turn...

<P>Couldn't that be simply because of interaction with South America? <P>Honest newbie question.

[MBryant]

I think Hurricanes are much more dynamic than the information suggests. Information is scarce so we fit the information into a nice smooth curvefit model.

Variations in data are smoothed out so short term variation is missed.

Part of rapid developement MAY be due from underestimating the high and overestimating the low in an attempt to catch up.

I still fell it is because there are so many microcyclonic events within the mass of the hurricane that many data points are off.

Imagine what the readings would be if a dropsonde were dropped in or near a microcyclone (ie: waterspout or tornadic winds) There are hundreds of these, mostly very short term events within the cloud mass and relatively few are observed.

Warning! This is speculation by a meteorologist wanna be. Not a professional. It takes science and art together to get a grasp on hurricanes and since I didn't get my degree in meteorology (biggest regret of my life), I consentrate on the art.