Frances Advisories

[Air Force Met]

Golter...First...Andrew was not much further west at this point...it was only about 80-100 miles west of where Frances is.

Second...there are not two tropical storms north of it. There is a boderline tropical storm that will be well inland and too far away from Frances to influence it and a weak sfc low that is connected to an upper low....which is also moving west...as forecasted. The low is there...as forecast...and has done what it was forecasted to do. Also Frances is also not staying on a NNW track longer. It's not moving NNW...its moving NW...just as forecasted...and is only 24 miles from where it was forecasted to be on the 5 pm advisory yesterday. So...the track is not off that much and it is not moving NNW longer than it was foreacsted to do. Matter of fact...if you go back 2 days...it's now 45 miles further WEST than forecasted to be. So...there are no track errors of any note.

The models are coming into line....and saying that they will track eastward after they come in line doesn't make any sense to me. THe fact is that most of the eastern models have shifted west and the southern models have shifted north. There is now good agreement that this goes into the Bahamas.

[schmita]

Well well well. My first summer living down here. Looks like the UKMET is saying we will be "grazed" by Frances. We do stick out a bit. You may be out of the woods though. We shall see.
Am having airco installed Monday am. Should I keep the appointment? LOL
Good Luck
Irina
PS My birthday today. Happy birthday to you. Sorry I missed it.

[SouthernWx]

I agree with Stewart....in fact, I won't be shocked if Frances reaches strong cat-4 or cat-5 status within 24-36 hours....this is potentially an extremely dangerous hurricane.

While it's too early to push the panic button in southern Florida, the odds are rising that this hurricane will impact that area. I don't see anything in the current model guidance down the road (5-8 days) to turn Frances away as occurred with Floyd five years ago -- in fact, if the ridge builds in as strongly as some data suggests, there's a better chance of Frances missing south Florida to the SOUTH than the north (i.e.- pass between Key West and Cuba OR over Cuba).

As for intensity, the sky's the limit. SST's are at their summer peak...and IF Frances moves toward the Keys or SE Florida coast, it will encounter extremely warm sst's (86-88°F) along the coast from PBI to Key West....with very high oceanic heat content currently located in the Bahamas to SoFla area. I'd be shocked if Frances doesn't reach cat-5 coming into that area...unless something unforseen occurs.

Another concern with this being a classic Cape Verde hurricane that's already a major cane well at sea, is by the time Frances arrives in the SoFla/ Keys/ Cuba area in 7-9 days, it could be a huge hurricane in size....more in the mold of Floyd or Hugo than Andrew.

Definitely one to keep an eagle eye on...

[BreinLa]

Taking a few deep breathes

[kevin]

Once a hurricane reaches cat 5,it creates its own environment.Meaning,nothing can hinder it.<<

Sorry, wrong. Eyewall replacement cycles being a big one. And environmental conditions of course.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe this storm could be the next Gilbert/Mitch as far as intensity goes.

[Weathermaster]

Check the last loop and you see the movement, maybe a wobble, but have to check is this a new trend.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[B-Bear]

Once a hurricane reaches cat 5,it creates its own environment.Meaning,nothing can hinder it.<<

Sorry, wrong. Eyewall replacement cycles being a big one. And environmental conditions of course.

And recurving too...right?

[Air Force Met]

Once a hurricane reaches cat 5,it creates its own environment.Meaning,nothing can hinder it

It would probably eat a TD or TS for lunch

That's not right. Even the mighty Cat 5 will not stay a 5. Eyewall cycles and shear can kill it. Dry air knocked down Isabel last year. A big old longwave trough will eat a Cat 5 for a snack....and not even burp.

[NorthGaWeather]

He said it possible cat 5 will be barrelling into south Florida. He can predict that, but its just that a prediction based on speculation. This storm is nothing like Andrew. Andrew was much farther west at this tim and Andrew did not have two tropical systems to the north of it. The ridge's strength is the not a given. Bermuda Low is holding ridge to the north and allowing Frances to keep her nnw track longer. Thats what my prediciton is based on. Also, I am of the opinion that once models come into agreement they have a left biased and tend to move towards the east. This has already happend from the 12OZ run to the 18 OZ. Lets watch and hope shes a fis.

NNW? hmmm maybe you need to catch a look at the Satellite. This storm actually was following a course close to Andrew's. Andrew also was not that much further left, He was around 50 miles West of Frances track as best I can tell.

[Guest]

If anything it looks like it took a north wobble, not a west one.

[golter]

maybe just a wobble, look here at this.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


appears to me that it is taking a more nnw track.

[OtherHD]

That's not right. Even the mighty Cat 5 will not stay a 5. Eyewall cycles and shear can kill it. Dry air knocked down Isabel last year. A big old longwave trough will eat a Cat 5 for a snack....and not even burp.

Good point. The whole notion of a hurricane creating its own environment is largely overrated, IMO.

[canegrl04]

Well put, Air Force Met Models are already factoring in that system off SC,and the UKMET forecasts it to be pushed inland with the ridge,and the remnents to merge with a weak low level boundary,and the ridge will squash the Bermuda thing

[cycloneye]

First happy birthday to you and have many more.

About Frances and the northern islands including ST Marteen I can say to you that as long Frances keep climbing and pass 18n the latitud of St Marteen you will be safe from a direct hit however you have to watch when it bends westward hopefully after it passes 20n but in general the northern islands will not experience another Luis type hurricane landfall.

[Guest]

WOW! that is condusive for some serious development!

[logybogy]

Air Force Met,

The question I have for you is what do you see that could weaken the ridge when Frances gets to the bamahas and prevent it from striking South Florida?

[c5Camille]

true AFM... but it seems the only forcast obsticle
frances has to contend with is eye wall replacement...

looks more like it's gonna be a rubberband show
next week... this girl is impressive...

if she can keep her forward speed... she has
everything she needs to be a "super hurricane"

God forbid she makes the straits and enters the gulf
cat3 to 4....

[Guest]

You are only truly safe after it passes your latitude. Otherwise, there is a risk (not saying theres a very big risk though)

[B-Bear]

That's my concern. Not only that this thing could reach cat 5, but its possible dimensions. Heck, if it continues to blossom like it has been and turns into a Hugo, it could cause catasrophic storm surge and wind destruction even if it stays a strong cat 3 or cat 4. But a cat 5 that big hitting a populated area? That would probably be something none of us would ever again see in our lifetimes. Potential apocaplyptic destruction.