Alex Advisories

[stormchazer]

Beautiful....especially when it is going that direction.

[Hyperstorm]

EVERYONE must be scratching this head knowing this thing has strengthened so much especially after weakening quite a bit yesterday and at this northern latitude. Now, don't tell me someone expected this to become this strong, not even Bastardi.

I will always say the same thing...this is what the Gulf Stream can do for a system...

[USAwx1]

Looking Beautiful. Very symmetric (though compact) system w/ well defined eye. Picture perfect.

Alex being the first system of the season yet also reaching major hurricane strength may be able to tell us something valuable about the season, that being an increased tendency for what systems do develop to become hurricanes or even major hurricanes. In other words a smaller ratio of total storms which develop to those which reach hurricane status.

[OtherHD]

Isn't Alex one of those "I forgot what it's called" hurricanes? I remember a big discussion about it last year during Isabel about powerful hurricanes with large eyes and circular shape. I forgot the name though.

[rainstorm]

lets not forget the remains of td2

annular

[Stormchaser16]

Except this thread is about ALEX thank you

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 4, 2004

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on major
Hurricane Alex...located about 800 miles southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two...located over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea...are moving westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Thunderstorms have become more concentrated about 185 miles east of
Bonaire...or about 360 miles south-southeast of Puerto Rico. The
slower movement of the system may allow a surface low pressure
center to form and....if necessary...an Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system Thursday
morning to determine if regeneration is occurring.

A weak low pressure system in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is
located about 830 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The system
is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph and shower activity is
minimal at this time. Further development...if any...should be slow
to occur.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Forecaster Stewart

$$

[wx247]

Thanks KC.

Oh the twists and turns of the tropics.

[Brent]

poor NHC. It was supposed to have been sheared to pieces by now.

Hurricane Alex Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 04, 2004

...Alex strengthens into the first Major hurricane of the
2004 season over the North Atlantic...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 38.9 north...longitude 64.8 west or about 800
miles...1285 km...southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland.

Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 25 mph...41 km/hr...
and this general motion...with a gradual increase in forward
speed... is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Alex a category three or Major hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...38.9 N... 64.8 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanefreak1988]

OH BABY! ALEX IS A FREAKING BEAST!!!

He looks better than he ever has, and the funniest part is... he's in the NORTH ATLANTIC! Alex, I've gotta hand it to ya. Even though you didn't pay me a visit (you tried your best but EVIL Mr. Trough had to play his traditional role of spoiler ), you've defied the odds and gotten to 120 MPH, gotten a nice eye, and the scary part: YOU'RE NOT DONE STRENGTHENING YET! You are what a season-opening storm should be. Thanks for saving the season Alex, YOU'RE THE MAN!

[HalloweenGale]

Bring it on! ALEX is like FIFI (I flew FIFI)

[Guest]

Wow.

[*StOrmsPr*]

WTNT41 KNHC 050256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

ALEX HAS BECOME ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE DIRECTLY IN THE
CENTER OF A CDO PATTERN WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULAR OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...A DATA-T
NUMBER OF T6.0...OR 115 KT FROM TAFB...A RAW ODT VALUE OF T5.7...OR
108 KT AT 05/0015Z...AND A 3-HR AODT AVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT.
THE AVERAGE OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 106 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT. THIS MAKES ALEX THE STRONGEST
MAJOR HURRICANE ON RECORD TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 38N LATITUDE...WITH
HURRICANE ELLEN IN 1973 COMING IN SECOND AT 100 KT. THOSE ARE THE
ONLY TWO HURRICANES ON RECORD TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING MORE THAN 2C ABOVE AVERAGE IN THAT AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/22. ALEX IS STARTING TO ACCLERATE
AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 NMI
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALONG THE
ENTIRE TRACK...WHICH IS A TREMENDOUS TRIBUTE TO THE HARD WORK THAT
MANY COMPUTER MODELERS HAVE PUT IN OVER THE YEARS.

ALEX MAY HAVE PEAKED...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER A
WARM POOL IN THE GULFSTREAM BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...
ONCE ALEX CROSSES NORTH OF 42N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
WHICH WILL HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 38.9N 64.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 40.7N 60.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 43.8N 51.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 45.8N 41.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/0000Z 47.1N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[wx247]

Wow. Thanks for sharing!!!

[Stormchaser16]

Is the center under the CDO yet?

[lilbump3000]

Alex is just making his self known today. Lets recap, He became the first tropical depression of the season, the first tropical storm of the season, the first hurricane of the season, the first major hurricane of the season, and now the first strongest hurricane to develop north of the 38N Latitude line.

[Stormchaser16]

The first strongest hurricane......

I think its one or the other lol......

[*StOrmsPr*]

Is the center under the CDO yet?

directly under it !

from 11pm discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 050256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

"THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE DIRECTLY IN THE
CENTER OF A CDO PATTERN WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULAR OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS"

[HalloweenGale]

Thats my boy

[Stormchaser16]

Yes i know storm, it was a joke lol......

Back from when many were complaining about the center not being directly under the CDO, those people gave the storm little chance of developing. So it was just a little sarcastic satircal comment