Alex Advisories

[Nimbus]

Those cut off surface lows always seem to form at the very tail end of the a weakening front. It will be interesting to see how far the trough digs. The trough looks as thougth it arrived too early to deflect TD2 but some of the forecasts leave the trough stalled for a few days.

[GulfHills]

Looks like the Gulf is starting to firing up:

[MGC]

I am not buying GOM development this weekend. The front will have to sit and fester. Convection is unorganized. I'm placing my bets on former bogus TD 2 once it reaches the W Carb.....MGC

[c5Camille]

ditto....

[Matthew5]

The upper low will move southwest over time. The wave will build a upper level high in do a Barry! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001barry.html

[KatDaddy]

I may be wrong but I am buying into GOM development this time around. We will have quite a bit of energy in the GOM into next week with a building upper level ridge over the GOM. With the very warm waters at the surface and a ventilating ridge over the top of it; significant and rapid develop could occur. We have a tropical wave headed into the GOM early next week and weak stationary front that may induce a low pressure area. Looks to me the stage is set for GOM development. This is something I will watch very carefully during the upcoming week.

[Aquawind]

I am not buying GOM development this weekend. The front will have to sit and fester. Convection is unorganized. I'm placing my bets on former bogus TD 2 once it reaches the W Carb.....MGC

I agree it will have to sit and fester before anything tropical pops and yes former TD2 if it makes it could very well be the trigger finger..

[BayouVenteux]

I am not buying GOM development this weekend. The front will have to sit and fester. Convection is unorganized. I'm placing my bets on former bogus TD 2 once it reaches the W Carb.....MGC

I agree MGC. I think that the eventual stationary front will be one ingredient. TWFKA2* will be the other. What if anything comes out of that is our S2k speculation special for the coming weekend.

*The Wave Formerly Known As 2

[Aquawind]

I may be wrong but I am buying into GOM development this time around. We will have quite a bit of energy in the GOM into next week with a building upper level ridge over the GOM. With the very warm waters at the surface and a ventilating ridge over the top of it; significant and rapid develop could occur. We have a tropical wave headed into the GOM early next week and weak stationary front that may induce a low pressure area. Looks to me the stage is set for GOM development. This is something I will watch very carefully during the upcoming week.

Your not wrong at all..it's all logical and this would not be the first time for sure..It will be after the weekend..Unless 92L pops today you can get some sleep this weekend..lol..Dreamy huh..

[WXBUFFJIM]

With former TD#2 moving into the SE Gulf and a washed out stationary front over 90 degree water, one would speculate that it could ba a dangerous combo and it very well could mean tropical cyclone development, especially by early next week. This certainly seems like a better scenario at this point. Anytime we get into a pattern like this in the Gulf, it could mean big trouble down the road somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Opal and Alicia are just two examples!

Jim

[Aquawind]

With former TD#2 moving into the SE Gulf and a washed out stationary front over 90 degree water, one would speculate that it could ba a dangerous combo and it very well could mean tropical cyclone development, especially by early next week. This certainly seems like a better scenario at this point.

Jim

Yep I agree..If the trough comes in and helps recurve some of the systems out from the east coast..the payback comes in the form of more stalled fronts over the gulf... more instant Alex running up from the Gulf..lets hope not..

92L looks bad at the moment..

[rainstorm]

alot depends on whether an even more powerful trough hits the gom next week, and that seems likely now. an old front needs time to develop, and it may have very little of that. we need a blocked flow, not a progressive one

[NorthGaWeather]

I believe it was the GFS that is developing a Low from previous TD 2 over the Gulf in a few days. It will have time to develop.

[KatDaddy]

MANUAL FCST THAT BRINGS THE CARIB SYS TO THE WRN
GULF COAST BY DAY 5 WED REFLECTS YESTERDAYS COORDINATED HPC/NHC
TRACK... AND STILL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN WWD TREND OF
RECENT GFS RUNS. THUS WOULD PREFER TO DOWNPLAY INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF AND SERN/ERN CONUS.

[GalvestonDuck]

MANUAL FCST THAT BRINGS THE CARIB SYS TO THE WRN
GULF COAST BY DAY 5 WED REFLECTS YESTERDAYS COORDINATED HPC/NHC
TRACK... AND STILL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN WWD TREND OF
RECENT GFS RUNS. THUS WOULD PREFER TO DOWNPLAY INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF AND SERN/ERN CONUS.

Dang it!

[BayouVenteux]

alot depends on whether an even more powerful trough hits the gom next week, and that seems likely now. an old front needs time to develop, and it may have very little of that. we need a blocked flow, not a progressive one

Hmmm. Sounds like some ideas to consider here in this excerpt from this afternoon's prelim HPC discussion:

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO SURGE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MS VLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE ATLC/GULF COAST STATES BY MIDWEEK. MID LVL DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT BRIEFLY HVY RNFL ALON THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE SHOULD KEEP OVERALL AMTS IN THE LGT-MDT RANGE. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN OR STALL FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE DUE TO FEEDBACK... BUT STILL EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO TRACK SEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG/N OF THE WRN PART OF THE SFC FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RNFL ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO FRONTAL WAVES... BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHAT EXTENT. 06Z GFS HAS HVY RNFL DUE TO CONTINUATION OF THE FEEDBACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE 00Z GFS PULLS IN SOME GULF OF MEXICO MSTR ORIGINALLY ASSOC WITH SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. MANUAL FCST THAT BRINGS THE CARIB SYS TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY DAY 5 WED REFLECTS YESTERDAYS COORDINATED HPC/NHC TRACK... AND STILL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN WWD TREND OF
RECENT GFS RUNS. THUS WOULD PREFER TO DOWNPLAY INFLUENCE OF THIS SYS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF AND SERN/ERN CONUS.

[southerngale]

Locals here saying we need to watch the Gulf as well .

[Rainband]

Locals here saying we need to watch the Gulf as well .

I think they are giving us all a heads up Because the models are so wishey washy

[southerngale]

Yep Johnathan...doesn't really mean anything. lol
I guess for folks who don't follow the tropics (what is wrong with them? ), it keeps them checking back.

[HouTXmetro]

My eyes will be glued. I hope Bonnie to be isn't just another tease.