Frances Advisories

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jlauderdal
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Re: 12:00 Models for Frances=A little more stronger,958 mbs

#1281 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:09 am

cycloneye wrote:HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 0000 040829 1200 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 51.6W 18.3N 53.1W 19.0N 54.6W 19.4N 56.4W
BAMM 17.2N 51.6W 18.2N 53.2W 18.8N 54.7W 19.1N 56.5W
A98E 17.2N 51.6W 18.4N 53.1W 19.7N 54.7W 21.1N 56.6W
LBAR 17.2N 51.6W 18.4N 53.0W 19.3N 54.7W 19.8N 56.5W
SHIP 105KTS 105KTS 104KTS 102KTS
DSHP 105KTS 105KTS 104KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200 040902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 58.6W 20.3N 63.7W 21.4N 68.2W 22.5N 70.6W
BAMM 19.3N 58.9W 20.2N 64.0W 21.5N 68.5W 23.0N 71.4W
A98E 22.4N 59.0W 26.3N 64.8W 29.1N 68.5W 31.0N 68.5W
LBAR 20.1N 58.9W 21.2N 64.0W 22.0N 68.4W 22.7N 71.2W
SHIP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 88KTS
DSHP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 51.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 50.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE


A98 hanging tough
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caneman

#1282 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:10 am

The BAMM and BAMD have it coming in below the 20 - 60 Line. Not good.
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#1283 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:13 am

Especially the BAMM which is the more close to track Frances north of PR around 20.5-21.0n not too far for comfort as it will be a 4 by that time
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Frances Turning?

#1284 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:15 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Last 3 frames due west :eek:
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#1285 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:15 am

Hmm, the ships models don't want to strengthen it much more. They keep it around the same intensity, but they weaken it within the next few days. Are there any reasons for that? It looks well organized.
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#1286 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:16 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Hmm, the ships models don't want to strengthen it much more. They keep it around the same intensity, but they weaken it within the next few days. Are there any reasons for that? It looks well organized.


Think there's some shear near the islands
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#1287 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:17 am

cycloneye wrote:Especially the BAMM which is the more close to track Frances north of PR around 20.5-21.0n not too far for comfort as it will be a 4 by that time


PR is already in the Cone..With talk of Strong Ridging to the north don't get to comfy yet..
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#1288 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:19 am

Three words...

WATCH OUT FLORIDA!!!! :eek: :eek:

Leaving here shortly to see relatives so I won't be around much til tonight. :roll:
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#1289 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:19 am

We need 3 more frames to see if it is a wobble or a trend but yes a left movement now 285.
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#1290 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:20 am

Wobble imho..Strengthening cane can do that..NHC is right on track..Frances is an official Weeble..
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#1291 Postby Windsong » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:22 am

ericinmia wrote:yeah I'm in charge!!!!!!





WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!







lol, i am loosing it, and need sleep too...
I hope to wakeup to something better than i'm seeing tonight!

-Eric


LOL! Thanks for the giggle :lol:
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#1292 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:23 am

It does appear to be more westerly at the end. To me it looks like the standard stair stepping of a strong hurricane. You need three more frames to see if a trend is developing.
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#1293 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:24 am

LOL

Rest well Mike. You still have 5-7 days before this threatens Florida anyway.
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#1294 Postby wx247 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:33 am

That last frame of the loop looks to indicate that it was a temporary west jog as the hurricane looks to move back to the nw or wnw in the last frame.
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Derek Ortt

Morning frances forecast... near bahamas in 5 days

#1295 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:35 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


am going into the office now to do the gaston as well as the graphics
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#1296 Postby snowflake » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:39 am

I heard that they are expecting a NW movement for the next 24 to 36 hours. After that they are expecting a wnw or maybe even westward movement.
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#1297 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:40 am

Thanks, good work
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#1298 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:45 am

Good job Derek. Question: The models did not really pick up on the system south of Bermuda. If this develops, what impact could it have on Frances track. To me it would cause a small buckle in the ridge allowing a more northward bend in the early part of the period. Followed by a bend back to the west. This would increase the threat for landfall a little more north on the EC. IMO.
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SouthernWx

Hurricane Frances forecast #3: a growing U.S. threat

#1299 Postby SouthernWx » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:22 am

Here is my latest analysis and forecast on hurricane Frances (next update will be this evening).

Latest forecast:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

Analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 ... myThoughts
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Frank P
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#1300 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:25 am

Interesting.... the GFS 00 run shows it somewhat south of your prediction.... Do you think Frances will enter the GOM and make a second landfall as the GFS is indicating???
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