Ivan Advisories

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 061919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1919Z
B. 11 DEG 22 MIN N
54 DEG 52 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2833 M
D. 75 KT
E. 315 DEG 24 NM
F. 059 DEG 94 KT
G. 334 DEG 006 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 11 C/ 3089 M
J. 17 C/ 3076 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E14/10/7
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NW QUAD 1917Z.

;

[Brent]

Probably a Cat 2 then.

NW quadrant? Did they find stronger winds in the NE quad?

[x-y-no]

M. E14/10/7

Interesting. The eye is still eliptical but it's about 40% bigger.

[Anonymous]

The weakening has obviously leveled off, as the system is remarkably better organized than this morning.

[Derecho]

In the last hour a MASSIVE arc cloud (surface outflow boundary) has shot out of the entire NW half of the storm.

Having tried in chat people seem remarkably unable to spot it when it's plain as day, so if you can't see it on a vis loop..well, I can't help you.

Frances did the same thing right before it dropped from Cat 4 to Cat 2.

[Canelaw99]

Can you possibly post a link to a sat. loop??? Thanks!

[debbiet]

So are you saying it may weaken even further?

[mf_dolphin]

I see what Derecho is talking about but the next few frames shows a storm getting better reorganized IMO Looks plenty healthy to me.

[JayPSU]

In the last hour a MASSIVE arc cloud (surface outflow boundary) has shot out of the entire NW half of the storm.

Having tried in chat people seem remarkably unable to spot it when it's plain as day, so if you can't see it on a vis loop..well, I can't help you.

Frances did the same thing right before it dropped from Cat 4 to Cat 2.

Taking a look at the IR loop, it appears that Ivan has done this TWICE in the same loop. The first was bigger, but the second was impressive as well.

[x-y-no]

In the last hour a MASSIVE arc cloud (surface outflow boundary) has shot out of the entire NW half of the storm.

Having tried in chat people seem remarkably unable to spot it when it's plain as day, so if you can't see it on a vis loop..well, I can't help you.

Frances did the same thing right before it dropped from Cat 4 to Cat 2.

I see what you're talking about, but can you explain why this would be correlated with further weakening?

[Anonymous]

Its outer band spit an outflow boundary, not the core. The latest sat and IR pics show that the center is now surrounded by convection. Still not weakening imo.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 062058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/2058Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
55 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2790 M
D. 80 KT
E. 045 DEG 9 NM
F. 140 DEG 106 KT
G. 045 DEG 006 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3088 M
J. 17 C/ 3075 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 106 KT NE QUAD 2056Z.

Looks like it's strengthning now

[Dave C]

There is no outer convective bands to steal it's energy now. That arc cloud Derecho mentioned was pretty wild. I remember several years ago hurricane Joyce was at the same low latitude nearing the islands and mega outflow boundries shot out and by the time it reached the eastern Carrabean it had been reduced to an open wave after being cat 3 strength 2 days earlier, also was a fairly small system in it's central core. sw shear that was not picked up in the models had impacted the system. Dosen't seem likely this time around with Ivan IMHO

[wjs3]

x-y-no:

I think the answer to your question is that Tropical cyclones rely on air flowing into them at lower levels. An outflow boundary shows that just the opposite is happening--air's trying to go out from the storm--which is not good for development.

[btsgmdad]

Uh oh! Here he comes. The satellite presentations have continued to look more organized thoroughout the day. Not good news for anyone in his path.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no:

I think the answer to your question is that Tropical cyclones rely on air flowing into them at lower levels. An outflow boundary shows that just the opposite is happening--air's trying to go out from the storm--which is not good for development.

OK, I get it. Thanks.

Doesn't seem to be hurting Ivan's core, though. Eye has gone from elliptical to circular, and the pressure is dropping.

[Derek Ortt]

Joyce was SAL. There was no westerly shear. The SAL forced major league easterly shear

[abajan]

As the sun set, cumulonimbus clouds (which were somewhat hard to see earlier in the afternoon of a rather hazy and somewhat breezy day) to my east and southeast lit up like fire! What an ominous but beautiful sight it was.

Should be an interesting night.

[Brent]

As the sun set, cumulonimbus clouds (which were somewhat hard to see earlier in the afternoon of a rather hazy and somewhat breezy day) to my east and southeast lit up like fire! What an ominous but beautiful sight it was.

Should be an interesting night.

and a really rough morning. Rude wake-up call.

[cape_escape]

As the sun set, cumulonimbus clouds (which were somewhat hard to see earlier in the afternoon of a rather hazy and somewhat breezy day) to my east and southeast lit up like fire! What an ominous but beautiful sight it was.

Should be an interesting night.

Stay safe!!! We're thinking of you!