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CaluWxBill
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#141 Postby CaluWxBill » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:19 pm

sorry I was unaware that they didn't do recon on all these advisories. Yeah doubtful they will pull it up to 50 then.
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#142 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:21 pm

Very nicely done MWatkins. Your forecast, although precise, does leave me a tad bit more worried about TD3 potentially coming our way in Florida.

<RICKY>
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#143 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:22 pm

CaluWxBill wrote:sorry I was unaware that they didn't do recon on all these advisories. Yeah doubtful they will pull it up to 50 then.


Recon is actually pretty rare unless the thing is threatening land(then it's pretty continous). When storms are in the Far Atlantic(out by Africa) recon doesn't go in. They won't go in til it gets near the islands(50 W).
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#144 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:23 pm

I agree....But, it does look pretty good... Pretty good outflow too.....
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May be a while before TD3 strengthens...

#145 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:27 pm

The water she is over right now is actually a little cool. < 27* C in some cases. And .5 to 1 below anomaly wise... THe center of circulation is also a little close to SA. Personally I would look for some real organization and strengthening later tommorow afternoon/night, then we can get a real handle on where this thing is heading (cuba, yucatan, etc), as the center of circulation will be more defined/organized. Given i already think she is a TS, Hurricane and rapid strengthening will take place in the 24 to 36 time frame IMO>..

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#146 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:28 pm

Will definately stay tuned... thanks Mike!
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#147 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:32 pm

Same here... Keep us posted Mike...!!!!!!!!
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#148 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:32 pm

Thanks Mike!

I think that TD3 looks more impressive than Bonnie right now. Are there going to be any planes flying into it into the near future or is it still too far away?
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#149 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:34 pm

Also Note Mwatkins is currently streaming live.. http://radio48.nhcwx.com:8048
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#150 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:34 pm

REcon is scheduled for tomorrow Stephanie.
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#151 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:35 pm

Stephanie wrote:Thanks Mike!

I think that TD3 looks more impressive than Bonnie right now. Are there going to be any planes flying into it into the near future or is it still too far away?


Steph they will go tommorow afternoon to fly into TD#3.
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#152 Postby Baytown Bug » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:39 pm

Hey Mike. What do you think the chances of TD3 making it into the NE Gulf are? I can't help but wonder if these two could affect the same general stretch of coast. Way too early to know for certain, but do you think the trough will be far enough east to keep TD3 away from the Big Bend area?
Last edited by Baytown Bug on Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#153 Postby Aquawind » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:40 pm

Well that's not funny..Dang.. :eek:
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Latest GFDL brings Bonnie to nearly 90mph......

#154 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:46 pm

just before Landfall. How did the GFDL handle Alex's intensity, anyone remember?.......

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
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#155 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:47 pm

Geez, I forget....lOL
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#156 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:48 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#157 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:48 pm

I wonder if the pressure gradients likely to occur between Bonnie and this strong ridge dropping down could be part of this reflection?
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#158 Postby tw861 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:51 pm

Initial pressure was a tad high though. First frame shows 1011mb, last recon had 1006mb.
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#159 Postby goodlife » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:52 pm

that image doesn't seem to work....:(
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#160 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:52 pm

Note that the GFDL never brings Bonnie futher west than 91W.....MGC
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