Alex Advisories

[hurricanefreak1988]

Maybe it might not be just loads of rain here after all

[Brent]

P.S. This is much better than Grace from last year, lol

I'll give 'ya that.

I had not seen the latest vortex message when the advisory came out, so it came as a shock to see they had upgraded it. Now I see why they did.

[wxman57]

But the plane has been estimating no more than 25 kts at the surface on the reports.
/quote]


TRUE,, UNTIL THE LAST VORTEX MESSAGE... 35KT..

They didn't say what that estimated 35kt sfc wind was from. Flight level had 41 kts well southeast of the center. Multiply 41 x .8 to get sfc winds. Unless they dropped a dropsonde in one of the squalls and measured a wind at the surface. Still, it's a real stretch calling this a TS. It had stronger winds 2 days ago with no convection near the center and they wouldn't even call it a TD.

[The Dark Knight]

Tropical Storm 1*.....

[wxman57]

That is an estimate of 35KT at the surface.

However, those estimates if there is an error, it tends to be on the low side. Therefore, best to take the path of least regret and go ahead and call this a storm. Can always correct it in the best track.

P.S. This is much better than Grace from last year, lol

Yeah, agree on the Grace quote.

My boss had told me no tropical storms until August. I promised him I'd keep them at bay until now.

[Nimbus]

The shear will lessen as the high pressure ridge moves east ahead of the cold front. This leaves a window of opportunity for intensification before landfall. Tough to get a TS warning on the 5 o'clock news at midnight.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's definitely better than Grace. It's even better than Henri if you think about it. It's just a warm up though to what could be a more active hurricane season.

[vacanechaser]

My boss had told me no tropical storms until August. I promised him I'd keep them at bay until now.

LOL... IT IS THE 1ST...

[corpusbreeze]

I guess they were upgrading as I was typing. Im a very slow typer.

[Rieyeuxs]

I understand the benefits for the SC coast and yes I agree we need the rain. My question is: Is this going to affect us all that much? I keep checking the projected path, and the continually changing forecast and with it more-or-less stationary, won't the front pick it up before the majority of the precip comes on shore?

[wxman57]

Here's an 18Z shot of "Alex" with ship/land data plotted. Those 10-15 kts of wind along the SC/NC beaches must really be making swimming difficult.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex7.gif">

[The Dark Knight]

That's okay... A lot of us are slow typers... LOL

[Rieyeuxs]

lol. It's odd how fast these things change...

[dixiebreeze]

Talk about a busy Sunday afternoon HS chief Tom Ridge special press conference to announce a hike in the terror alert for NYC and NJ. Named specific targets, but no clue as to "when."

[Rieyeuxs]

wxman57 wrote:

My boss had told me no tropical storms until August. I promised him I'd keep them at bay until now.

no wonder it's been slow slow out there... So what did you promise about the 1st Hurricane...

[Brent]

I know. I'm drowning with too much going on right now. Add to the terror alert, new developments in the Utah missing woman case.

[The Dark Knight]

Nice pics... Where do you get them?? Is it some pro met program....

[vacanechaser]

the latest model run of the ships takes into account that it is alex... it brings it up to 65kt as it pulls away from Hatteras.. that was just surprising to me... i know it is not likely to happen... but interesting non the less...

[lilbump3000]

If that holds true which i doubt that will also make this our first hurricane. But like they say anything is possible.

[The Dark Knight]

Geez........Exciting day.... Aug. 1st, 2004