Bonnie Advisories

[Steve]

Sorry Linda, you know I love you and all but I'm going to have to agree with the general consensus on this thread. There are several indepenent and/or employed mets (and even several wannabes) on the site. They all do a great job and are sometimes right/sometimes wrong. But when someone gets adamant (not to mention the wannabes who get downright arrogant) about this IS ('for the last time') not going to develop, or that IS not a threat to the U.S., then they should be entitled to a little helping of crow like everyone else. We're all fans even though not all of us get paid for it .

Peace,

Oh yeah, one more thing for anyone reading this thread:

Have you ever (and I mean EVER!!!) seen so many people defending and arguing about how Charley is getting to their neck of the woods? JHC! What a trip. I started a thread begging people to step back and look at the big picture, then I nuked it. Then I started a Charley contest (position and strength Sat 11:00pm EDT, ultimate landfall and landfall intensity) and blew that off too. But if you read this and you're in Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston, Miami or Guadelajara, don't try to concoct weather as to how Charley is going to get to your area. We go through this 500 times a season, and we all know it's inevitable. But in the interest that most everyone will be wrong to some degree, why can't we all just get along? /Mars Attacks

Steve

[c5Camille]

well said Steve... very well said...

[NC George]

On the 5th day Bonnie is scheduled to pass directly over my house by the NHC: 75.5W 35.5N. I guess that means I'm safe!

[ColdFront77]

There are reasons for seeing how the potential is for a system to effect our general or immediate area.

There is a lot going for these systems with low and/or decreasing shear and the definate warm waters temperature where they (Bonnie and Charley) are located and are heading.

[Rainband]

I go by the NHC forecast. So of the individuals DONT want a storm to come to their area. If you read alot of the posts they tell you that. For example the West coast of Florida has flooding problems, I really doubt we want or need a storm. So if you were talking about us, Get a clue. If not then those that want this storm better be careful what you wish for. But for you to say we are wrong for listening to the NHC is absurd. IMHO I respect the amateurs but I listen to the pros..always have and always will

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101730
97779 17304 30186 79700 57200 06015 56711 /4591
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 10

18.6n-79.7w just westsouthwest of Jamaica is the plane now far from Charley yet.

[Rainband]

Thank you RB.. and by the way.. you're less than 100 from 10K

?? 10k, whats that

10,000 posts.

Thanks I don't look at the post count that often

[Josephine96]

LMAO..

[Josephine96]

LOL NC

[Dean4Storms]

If you look carefully in latest vis loops, you can see upper-level clouds (outflow) beginning to radiate NW-ward from the center of circulation. This could suggest that the northerly shear is beginning to relax. Just a thought...

Just what I was about to post. I don't understand where DT gets that NHC jumped the gun?? Recon flew into her and found a warm core closed low with approx. 50kt winds. Although she is small, she developed from a TW with no baroclinic influence and so far has deepened somewhat with a phase of weakening due to shear and possibly some dry air entrainment, even a Cat 3 hurricane can do this. True, she looks ragged right now but she is about to enter the area of most favorability that she has seen thus far except when she was in the Yuc. channel. Baroclinicity may come into play eventually, but likely not until around landfall in which time she could be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. I don't see any validity with your claim, period!

[Steve]

I've got a clue Rainband, but you know that .

I'm talking about all over the web too, not just S2K. But do yourself a favor whereever you happen to be surfing. On any "predict Charley's endgame/landfall" threads, check out the location of the posters. From what I've seen, it's running about 65% in favor of hitting everywhere. LMAO. And really, I do agree with you. The NHC is the final authority. I think people wish they'd open up a bit with their rationale (especially in the formative stages of systems where they give you the blanket no activity through x-day. They've gotten a little better over the last few years in their discussions. I appreciate that.

Steve

[Rainband]

I've got a clue Rainband, but you know that .

I'm talking about all over the web too, not just S2K. But do yourself a favor whereever you happen to be surfing. On any "predict Charley's endgame/landfall" threads, check out the location of the posters. From what I've seen, it's running about 65% in favor of hitting everywhere. LMAO. And really, I do agree with you. The NHC is the final authority. I think people wish they'd open up a bit with their rationale (especially in the formative stages of systems where they give you the blanket no activity through x-day. They've gotten a little better over the last few years in their discussions. I appreciate that.

Steve

I know Steve. Your a smart dude. I am just saying ME personally ..I don't want a storm. I will prob get flack from people for saying that but it is true. I am still in training at my new job and I have a serv safe course this week and my store is less than 5 miles from the coast. It has been too wet here lately and I am too busy. I don't go to other boards but I can relate to what your saying. LA, TX Miss, can have this one. My advice to anyone is be careful waht you wish for. I get pissed if my power is off for 1 hour. I can't imagine 1 week without it Peace

[Dean4Storms]

Convection is growing around the center as shear looks to be lessening. She also looks to be moving more NW to NNW and should continue a organizing and deepening trend over the next 24 hrs or so. Everyone from NO to Cedar Key should stay abreast of Bonnie. Bonnie could attain minimal hurricane strength tonight or early tomorrow and begin a turn NE on Wed.

[goodlife]

I gave up wanting storms...they never come to me....
Of course...ya'll konw what I mean when I say that..I have no desire to see anyone lose their lives or get injured..or suffer property damage...but they ARE exciting nonetheless....
However; after so many disappointments....I now just automatically assume they are going to hit elsewhere...they will hit anywhere but here...lol

[NorthGaWeather]

I've noticed what appears to be some small banding features north of the center. An outflow boundary shot out sometime this morning but now appears that these clouds are wrapping around the center.

[Thunder44]

Yeah, but it looks the shear took a toll on her already.

URNT12 KNHC 101728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1728Z
B. 24 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1470 M
D. 40 KT
E. 055 DEG 13 NM
F. 146 DEG 38 KT
G. 043 DEG 053 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 18 C/ 1538 M
J. 24 C/ 1539 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1702Z.

Of course this is probably only temporary and nothing more.

[Lindaloo]

Sorry Linda, you know I love you and all but I'm going to have to agree with the general consensus on this thread. There are several indepenent and/or employed mets (and even several wannabes) on the site. They all do a great job and are sometimes right/sometimes wrong. But when someone gets adamant (not to mention the wannabes who get downright arrogant) about this IS ('for the last time') not going to develop, or that IS not a threat to the U.S., then they should be entitled to a little helping of crow like everyone else. We're all fans even though not all of us get paid for it .

Peace,

Oh yeah, one more thing for anyone reading this thread:

Have you ever (and I mean EVER!!!) seen so many people defending and arguing about how Charley is getting to their neck of the woods? JHC! What a trip. I started a thread begging people to step back and look at the big picture, then I nuked it. Then I started a Charley contest (position and strength Sat 11:00pm EDT, ultimate landfall and landfall intensity) and blew that off too. But if you read this and you're in Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston, Miami or Guadelajara, don't try to concoct weather as to how Charley is going to get to your area. We go through this 500 times a season, and we all know it's inevitable. But in the interest that most everyone will be wrong to some degree, why can't we all just get along? /Mars Attacks

Steve

BOO!!!! lol. j/k. I was waiting on a clarification as to what the other poster meant. Thanks for clearing this up for me. As for the crow, I served a pro met his with toast yesterday. There are always going to be busts even from the Pro Mets but that does not mean they do not have a clue as to what they are doing.

[Lindaloo]

well said Steve... very well said...

Hush up PJ!!

[Josephine96]

Would the extra Northern component be a sign that the trough is getting ready to pick her up and sling shoot her this way?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 101728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1728Z
B. 24 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1470 M
D. 40 KT
E. 055 DEG 13 NM
F. 146 DEG 38 KT
G. 043 DEG 053 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 18 C/ 1538 M
J. 24 C/ 1539 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1702Z

38kt Flight level winds only and 1005 mbs nothing impressive.