slowly gaining strength
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004
...Charley getting a little stronger...Hurricane Watch extended
northward along the Florida west coast...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...information from reconnaissance aircraft
and radar from Cuba indicate the center of Hurricane Charley was
located near latitude 19.7 north... longitude 81.2 west or about
25 miles... 40 km... north of Grand Cayman.
Charley is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
turn to the north-northwest is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later today. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in the Florida Keys. Storm
surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible along the southwest
Florida coast.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Charley Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38092
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004
...Charley getting a little stronger...Hurricane Watch extended
northward along the Florida west coast...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...information from reconnaissance aircraft
and radar from Cuba indicate the center of Hurricane Charley was
located near latitude 19.7 north... longitude 81.2 west or about
25 miles... 40 km... north of Grand Cayman.
Charley is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
turn to the north-northwest is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later today. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in the Florida Keys. Storm
surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible along the southwest
Florida coast.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004
...Charley getting a little stronger...Hurricane Watch extended
northward along the Florida west coast...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...information from reconnaissance aircraft
and radar from Cuba indicate the center of Hurricane Charley was
located near latitude 19.7 north... longitude 81.2 west or about
25 miles... 40 km... north of Grand Cayman.
Charley is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
turn to the north-northwest is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later today. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in the Florida Keys. Storm
surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible along the southwest
Florida coast.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
0 likes
#neversummer
-
DoctorHurricane2003
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Charley's Landfall: Just North of Tampa?
Overnight, Charley continued to track in a general northwest direction.
August 11 11pm: 17.8N 78.7W
August 12 8 am: 19.2N 80.5W
August 12 11 am: 19.7N 81.2W
A gradual turn more to the north-northwest should continue as the day wears on. By late afternoon, Charley should be centered somewhere in the vicinity of 20.5N 82.0W.
The latest 12Z run of the ETA, particularly its 24 hour, 30 hour, and 36 hour images (SEE ANIMATION) provides a good illustration of Charley's likely track (probably somewhere between the 576 and 582 meter lines).
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294873">
At this time, most of the hurricane-related computer models also are in reasonably good agreement though they are somewhat farther to the west than the actual track shown on the ETA.
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294871">
Consequently, the most likely point of landfall appears to just north of Tampa. Landfall farther to the north and west e.g., on the eastern Panhandle cannot be ruled out nor can a landfall somewhat to Tampa's south. However, if the idea of a landfall just to Tampa's north holds, it should be noted that Tampa should be in the storm's more dangerous eastern side.
At landfall, Charley should be a Category 2 storm given SSTAs and shear environment. Already, his pressure has fallen to 983 mb with maximum winds up to 90 mph. There is a smaller but still reasonable possibility that Charley could attain Category 3 status.
From there, Charley will likely accelerate to the north-northeast, but it could pass briefly over the Atlantic Ocean enroute to a second landfall somewhere along the northeastern Georgia or South Carolina coast. An inland track is also possible.
Afterward, Charley should bring copious amounts of rain along and to the west of its track. Thus, waterlogged parts of the Mid-Atlantic region could see significant flooding, especially as Bonnie's remnants--Bonnie is now making landfall near Apalachicola, FL with 50 mph winds--should increase the risk of flooding ahead of Charley's arrival.
On the beneficial side, localized areas of drought should be dented in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294874">
August 11 11pm: 17.8N 78.7W
August 12 8 am: 19.2N 80.5W
August 12 11 am: 19.7N 81.2W
A gradual turn more to the north-northwest should continue as the day wears on. By late afternoon, Charley should be centered somewhere in the vicinity of 20.5N 82.0W.
The latest 12Z run of the ETA, particularly its 24 hour, 30 hour, and 36 hour images (SEE ANIMATION) provides a good illustration of Charley's likely track (probably somewhere between the 576 and 582 meter lines).
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294873">
At this time, most of the hurricane-related computer models also are in reasonably good agreement though they are somewhat farther to the west than the actual track shown on the ETA.
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294871">
Consequently, the most likely point of landfall appears to just north of Tampa. Landfall farther to the north and west e.g., on the eastern Panhandle cannot be ruled out nor can a landfall somewhat to Tampa's south. However, if the idea of a landfall just to Tampa's north holds, it should be noted that Tampa should be in the storm's more dangerous eastern side.
At landfall, Charley should be a Category 2 storm given SSTAs and shear environment. Already, his pressure has fallen to 983 mb with maximum winds up to 90 mph. There is a smaller but still reasonable possibility that Charley could attain Category 3 status.
From there, Charley will likely accelerate to the north-northeast, but it could pass briefly over the Atlantic Ocean enroute to a second landfall somewhere along the northeastern Georgia or South Carolina coast. An inland track is also possible.
Afterward, Charley should bring copious amounts of rain along and to the west of its track. Thus, waterlogged parts of the Mid-Atlantic region could see significant flooding, especially as Bonnie's remnants--Bonnie is now making landfall near Apalachicola, FL with 50 mph winds--should increase the risk of flooding ahead of Charley's arrival.
On the beneficial side, localized areas of drought should be dented in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=294874">
0 likes
-
CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
-
Josephine96
-
The Dark Knight
- Category 3
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
- Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
- Contact:
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
-
Josephine96
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
-
Anonymous
I think you are being a big conservative with the winds, maybe by about 5 knots or so not much. Im calling 110 knots at landfall. For right now Charley is getting stronger and deepening, as the ULL to its west doesnt seem to have the same affect on it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
The intensity of the storm when it hits Florida is vital to a couple of things. If the storm was to track over the island directly to the south of Cuba's western tip, as well as the island of cuba, the intensity would be less as it would be traveling over more land. However, if Charley goes to the east of that island and only tracks over the slender portion of Cuba right SW of the keys, than the winds may be a bit higher as it would have less land it has traveled over.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
The intensity of the storm when it hits Florida is vital to a couple of things. If the storm was to track over the island directly to the south of Cuba's western tip, as well as the island of cuba, the intensity would be less as it would be traveling over more land. However, if Charley goes to the east of that island and only tracks over the slender portion of Cuba right SW of the keys, than the winds may be a bit higher as it would have less land it has traveled over.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests