Charley Advisories

[HurricaneGirl]

Bing Bang Boom Shoot Right Through!!!!! TRRRRROPICAL!!

[Josephine96]

Yes tropical system tornadoes can be and usually are brief but can still cause a lot of damage..

and Brent.. I only meant F0s through a potential F2 or whatever.. Not violent ones lol

[HURAKAN]

Still the discussion of Charley is not out.

[Stormcenter]

I know this question may sound extreme or even silly.. but since I'll be on Charley's right side even if the eye doesn't directly pass over me.. I am concerned about tornadoes..

I know when Gabrielle came across in 2001, Brevard County had numerous tornado warnings and at least 2-3 reported tornado touchdowns..

Here's my question..? Could Charley cause a tornado outbreak in Central Florida..? {not like the outbreak in 1998, just an outbreak period}

Yes. By the way you'll never know the answer to a question unless you asked the question first. Good post.

[Derek Ortt]

I am a little concerned about a possible increase of the shear once it enters the GOM. It could reach upper cat 3 easily, especially if it deepens more than I am thinking in the caribbean

[Brent]

They say it could reach major hurricane status before hitting Cuba.

Hurricane Charley Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004

recent data from reconnaissance aircraft...satellites...and radars
from Cuba indicate Charley has become better organized and has
strengthened. The pressure has decreased to 983 mb and flight-level
winds were 83 kt in the southeast quadrant at 700 mb. Based on this
information and earlier recon wind reports indicating near 80 kt
surface winds...the advisory intensity has been increased to 80 kt.
Upper-level outflow is good in the northeast semicircle and is
improving to the southwest.

The initial motion is 310/15. Charley remains basically on the
previous forecast track. While the spread in the NHC model guidance
has increased somewhat for this advisory package...the consensus of
the models remains very close to the previous forecast track. NOAA
Gulfstream-IV dropsonde data along with 12z upper-air observations
indicate the subtropical ridge over South Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico is slowly weakening and eroding
eastward. This should allow Charley to make a gradual turn to the
north-northwest later today and turn northward by Friday morning
when the hurricane is north of western Cuba. After that...Charley
will come under the influence of a strong mid- to upper-level
trough over the central Gulf...which will act to accelerate the
hurricane north and north-northeastward by Friday evening. The
official forecast track is close to the previous track...only
slightly slower.
The upper-low to the west of Charley continues to move westward away
from the hurricane...which is lessening the shear. Since the
central core deep convection and outflow has improved...and there
is an abundance of warmer water ahead...Charley should continue to
intensify and could possibly reach major hurricane strength before
it reaches western Cuba. After passing over Cuba...the intensity
may drop slightly...but re-strengthening appears likely as the
shear is expected to remain low almost up until landfall occurs.
There is a distinct possibility that Charley could be near major
hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the Florida west
coast...especially if it makes landfall from the Tampa Bay area and
southward where the vertical shear will be less.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 19.7n 81.2w 80 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 21.6n 82.4w 85 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 24.6n 83.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 28.0n 82.8w 95 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 32.2n 81.2w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/1200z 40.5n 76.0w 35 kt...inland extratropical
96hr VT 16/1200z 47.0n 66.0w 30 kt...inland extratropical
120hr VT 17/1200z...absorbed by frontal system

[stu]

I tried to intercept the Isabel tornadoes near to Norfolk - basically they will be rain wrapped and non visable

[Josephine96]

Thank you SC

[cycloneye]

13


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004



recent data from reconnaissance aircraft...satellites...and radars
from Cuba indicate Charley has become better organized and has
strengthened. The pressure has decreased to 983 mb and flight-level
winds were 83 kt in the southeast quadrant at 700 mb. Based on this
information and earlier recon wind reports indicating near 80 kt
surface winds...the advisory intensity has been increased to 80 kt.
Upper-level outflow is good in the northeast semicircle and is
improving to the southwest.

The initial motion is 310/15. Charley remains basically on the
previous forecast track. While the spread in the NHC model guidance
has increased somewhat for this advisory package...the consensus of
the models remains very close to the previous forecast track. NOAA
Gulfstream-IV dropsonde data along with 12z upper-air observations
indicate the subtropical ridge over South Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico is slowly weakening and eroding
eastward. This should allow Charley to make a gradual turn to the
north-northwest later today and turn northward by Friday morning
when the hurricane is north of western Cuba. After that...Charley
will come under the influence of a strong mid- to upper-level
trough over the central Gulf...which will act to accelerate the
hurricane north and north-northeastward by Friday evening. The
official forecast track is close to the previous track...only
slightly slower.
The upper-low to the west of Charley continues to move westward away
from the hurricane...which is lessening the shear. Since the
central core deep convection and outflow has improved...and there
is an abundance of warmer water ahead...Charley should continue to
intensify and could possibly reach major hurricane strength before
it reaches western Cuba. After passing over Cuba...the intensity
may drop slightly...but re-strengthening appears likely as the
shear is expected to remain low almost up until landfall occurs.
There is a distinct possibility that Charley could be near major
hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the Florida west
coast...especially if it makes landfall from the Tampa Bay area and
southward where the vertical shear will be less.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 19.7n 81.2w 80 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 21.6n 82.4w 85 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 24.6n 83.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 28.0n 82.8w 95 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 32.2n 81.2w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/1200z 40.5n 76.0w 35 kt...inland extratropical
96hr VT 16/1200z 47.0n 66.0w 30 kt...inland extratropical
120hr VT 17/1200z...absorbed by frontal system

[Nimbus]

What about the shear as Charley approaches the front? Sure Charley could become a major hurricane but if the trough is expected to have a 24 hour interaction with the trough while it is steering the storm northeast won't the shear knock the intensity back down?

[Guest]

Track is slower... landfall around nightfall at Tampa now.

Is this true? Tonight?
...Jennifer...

[Brent]

No, TOMORROW night. It won't even be to the west of the Keys til tomorrow morning.

[cycloneye]

Bump

[Dmetal81]

A minimal CAT 3 it looks like it will be, but then again, is there anything minimal about that? Weather Channel is telling everyone evacuating to head to the east coast of FL. A sound plan IMO

[Guest]

Thanks for the clarification Brent.
...Jennifer...

[Josephine96]

I know this probably should be in the weather forum and not here.. But I just read the HWO from Melbourne.. and there is a MODERATE RISK for tornadoes TODAY

Seems having Bonnie so close along with the fact that we will easily get into the 90's today before our thunderstorms hit doesn't help the situation...

My news is getting better all the time isn't it lol

[DoctorHurricane2003]

After analyzing satellite pictures, recon data, and reading the output from the NHC on Charley, I believe that there is a 45% chance of a rapid intensification process initializing...probably sometime overnight tonight as the ULL to the west has less influence on him. Here are some more percentages:

---INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES---
(2-4 mb/hour drop or wind increase 10-20 mph in 6-9 hours) Rapid Intensification Process: 45% Chance
(4-6 mb/hour drop or wind increase 20-30 mph in 6-12 hours) Rapid Deepening Process: 39% Chance
(>6 mb/hour drop or wind increase >30 mph in 9-18 hours) Explosive Deepening Process: 27% Chance

---MAXIMUM STRENGTH PROBABILITIES---
Category 3: 87%
Category 4: 52%
Category 5: 29%

[weatherSnoop]

Pinellas county saying surge in Tampa Bay 10-14 ft

[Josephine96]

I am thinking Charley will be a Cat 3 when it arrives.. if it's any stronger.. I hate to say it.. but not only will it be a catastrophe.. but I also think there could be mass casualties since a lot of people in Tampa/St Pete probably think it's no big deal

[Josephine96]

14 feet of water huh.. those seawalls from what I've heard aren't even that high..